Country Profile - Zambia      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Zambia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Zambia -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 21.12
     2030: 24.75
     2060: 43.50
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 2.724
     2030: 2.579
     2060: 1.163
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 33.56
     2030: 31.52
     2060: 17.50
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 5.964
     2030: 5.536
     2060: 5.764
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 33.67
     2030: 28.72
     2060: 13.41
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 64.93
     2030: 66.98
     2060: 74.02
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 61.81
     2030: 63.70
     2060: 70.36
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 68.00
     2030: 70.22
     2060: 77.68
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 4.160
     2030: 3.844
     2060: 2.172
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 5.241
     2030: 4.352
     2060: 0.978
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 3.241
     2030: 3.624
     2060: 3.845
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 8.852
     2030: 9.784
     2060: 11.79
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 11.85
     2030: 14.39
     2060: 28.85
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 0.409
     2030: 0.579
     2060: 2.857
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 9.951
     2030: 12.55
     2060: 28.97
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.347
     2030: 0.351
     2060: 0.344
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 46.83
     2030: 47.96
     2060: 49.77

Health Forecast for Zambia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 1.588
     2030: 1.922
     2060: 4.299
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 15.87
     2030: 16.03
     2060: 17.54
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 9.610
     2030: 7.667
     2060: 3.165
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 8.562
     2030: 5.612
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 26.95
     2030: 22.62
     2060: 8.100

Education Forecast for Zambia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 102.8
     2030: 103.1
     2060: 104.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 88.49
     2030: 90.33
     2060: 96.27
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 62.51
     2030: 69.53
     2060: 87.25
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 37.31
     2030: 42.04
     2060: 59.34
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 6.482
     2030: 9.374
     2060: 20.93
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 8.028
     2030: 8.147
     2060: 9.362
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 87.72
     2030: 89.32
     2060: 97.30

Social/Human Forecast for Zambia
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 11.58
     2030: 10.59
     2060: 6.289
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 15.62
     2030: 15.65
     2060: 13.03
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.710
     2030: 0.734
     2060: 0.846
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 14.39
     2030: 11.83
     2060: 4.165
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,297
     2030: 2,406
     2060: 2,886
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.152
     2030: -0.176
     2060: -0.268
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.381
     2030: -0.335
     2060: -0.110

Economy Forecast for Zambia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 70.94
     2030: 95.53
     2060: 381.1
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 32.43
     2030: 45.49
     2060: 245.9
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 3.360
     2030: 3.860
     2060: 8.762
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.569
     2030: 0.570
     2060: 0.558
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 33.01
     2030: 33.46
     2060: 36.16
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 5.387
     2030: 7.512
     2060: 17.97

Energy Forecast for Zambia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.006
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Zambia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.003
     2030: 0.005
     2060: 0.018

International Politics Forecast for Zambia
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.081
     2030: 0.087
     2060: 0.141

Domestic Government Forecast for Zambia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 8.051
     2030: 8.222
     2060: 9.208
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 16.06
     2030: 16.25
     2060: 18.42
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 3.337
     2030: 3.426
     2060: 4.304
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 1.753
     2030: 1.885
     2060: 2.654
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.129
     2030: 7.211
     2060: 7.706