Country Profile - South Africa      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for South Africa
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for South Africa -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 61.89
     2030: 65.88
     2060: 76.56
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 1.177
     2030: 0.898
     2060: 0.156
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 19.08
     2030: 16.68
     2060: 11.53
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 8.993
     2030: 8.996
     2060: 10.74
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 31.05
     2030: 29.65
     2060: 20.35
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 66.24
     2030: 67.48
     2060: 74.02
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 62.96
     2030: 64.10
     2060: 70.27
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 69.36
     2030: 70.72
     2060: 77.63
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 2.386
     2030: 2.183
     2060: 1.700
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 12.88
     2030: 13.68
     2060: 14.87
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 5.838
     2030: 5.511
     2060: 4.408
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 17.30
     2030: 17.12
     2060: 13.72
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 40.64
     2030: 43.70
     2060: 49.53
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 3.943
     2030: 5.061
     2060: 13.32
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 42.75
     2030: 47.28
     2060: 60.66
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.393
     2030: 0.393
     2060: 0.361
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 47.62
     2030: 48.63
     2060: 49.91

Health Forecast for South Africa -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 32.47
     2030: 33.78
     2060: 40.23
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 18.88
     2030: 18.88
     2060: 21.29
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 3.598
     2030: 3.403
     2060: 2.605
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 3.798
     2030: 2.924
     2060: 1.173
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 6.051
     2030: 4.659
     2060: 1.048

Education Forecast for South Africa -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 104.4
     2030: 105.1
     2060: 101.3
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 90.27
     2030: 93.97
     2060: 99.86
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 107.5
     2030: 109.3
     2060: 102.9
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 109.8
     2030: 112.0
     2060: 111.1
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 25.10
     2030: 27.59
     2060: 43.48
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 9.905
     2030: 10.21
     2060: 11.35
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 95.86
     2030: 96.92
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for South Africa
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 12.62
     2030: 13.25
     2060: 9.629
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 24.97
     2030: 26.28
     2060: 21.98
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.818
     2030: 0.831
     2060: 0.899
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 9.844
     2030: 9.179
     2060: 5.118
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,855
     2030: 2,928
     2060: 3,244
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.086
     2030: 0.076
     2060: -0.021
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.345
     2030: -0.307
     2060: -0.069

Economy Forecast for South Africa
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 789.8
     2030: 866.8
     2060: 1,486
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 395.5
     2030: 444.3
     2060: 997.2
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 12.76
     2030: 13.16
     2060: 19.40
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.628
     2030: 0.630
     2060: 0.627
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 29.69
     2030: 21.76
     2060: 14.46
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 20.97
     2030: 21.77
     2060: 33.39

Energy Forecast for South Africa
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for South Africa
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.120
     2030: 0.115
     2060: 0.070

International Politics Forecast for South Africa
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.351
     2030: 0.328
     2060: 0.343

Domestic Government Forecast for South Africa
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 12.07
     2030: 12.22
     2060: 13.03
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 19.39
     2030: 19.61
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.487
     2030: 4.616
     2060: 5.780
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 2.592
     2030: 2.664
     2060: 3.164
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 6.976
     2030: 6.999
     2060: 7.231