Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.78
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2021: 4.836
     2030: 5.115
     2060: 5.608
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2021: 0.671
     2030: 0.558
     2060: 0.180
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2021: 11.72
     2030: 11.75
     2060: 10.48
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2021: 7.250
     2030: 8.162
     2060: 10.79
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2021: 3.188
     2030: 2.336
     2060: 1.014
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2021: 82.12
     2030: 83.21
     2060: 86.23
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2021: 80.06
     2030: 81.08
     2060: 84.02
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2021: 84.12
     2030: 85.27
     2060: 88.40
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2021: 1.754
     2030: 1.823
     2060: 1.850
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2021: 0.075
     2030: 0.065
     2060: 0.021
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2021: 0.283
     2030: 0.299
     2060: 0.292
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2021: 0.928
     2030: 0.884
     2060: 0.884
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2021: 3.129
     2030: 3.215
     2060: 3.322
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2021: 0.779
     2030: 1.017
     2060: 1.402
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2021: 4.449
     2030: 4.706
     2060: 5.159
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2021: 0.569
     2030: 0.552
     2060: 0.523
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2021: 48.40
     2030: 49.47
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2021: 44.32
     2030: 47.45
     2060: 53.60
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2021: 16.99
     2030: 16.19
     2060: 15.65
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2021: 4.657
     2030: 4.119
     2060: 3.082
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2021: 5.222
     2030: 4.981
     2060: 5.280
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2021: 2.216
     2030: 1.714
     2060: 1.037

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2021: 100.7
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2021: 99.76
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2021: 101.9
     2030: 102.3
     2060: 99.99
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2021: 125.5
     2030: 117.9
     2060: 103.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2021: 81.65
     2030: 84.95
     2060: 86.35
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2021: 11.21
     2030: 12.25
     2060: 14.89
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2021: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2021: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2021: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2021: 0.983
     2030: 0.998
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2021: 1.721
     2030: 1.518
     2060: 1.129
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2021: 3,236
     2030: 3,366
     2060: 3,605
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2021: 1.238
     2030: 1.216
     2060: 1.152
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2021: 1.830
     2030: 1.951
     2060: 2.342

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2021: 190.6
     2030: 237.1
     2060: 421.6
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2021: 227.5
     2030: 278.0
     2060: 466.3
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2021: 39.40
     2030: 46.35
     2060: 75.19
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2021: 0.359
     2030: 0.354
     2060: 0.337
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2021: 42.71
     2030: 37.76
     2060: 35.61
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2021: 60.67
     2030: 64.26
     2060: 67.77

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2021: 0.011
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2021: 0.008
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2021: 0.240
     2030: 0.239
     2060: 0.235

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2021: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2021: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2021: 9.835
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2021: 4.393
     2030: 4.457
     2060: 4.630
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2021: 8.551
     2030: 8.642
     2060: 8.909