Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.79
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2022: 4.873
     2030: 5.127
     2060: 5.658
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2022: 0.673
     2030: 0.553
     2060: 0.190
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2022: 11.82
     2030: 11.72
     2060: 10.53
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2022: 7.343
     2030: 8.145
     2060: 10.70
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2022: 3.056
     2030: 2.339
     2060: 1.015
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2022: 82.26
     2030: 83.20
     2060: 86.23
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2022: 80.19
     2030: 81.07
     2060: 84.01
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2022: 84.26
     2030: 85.27
     2060: 88.40
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2022: 1.771
     2030: 1.823
     2060: 1.850
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2022: 0.074
     2030: 0.065
     2060: 0.021
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2022: 0.283
     2030: 0.302
     2060: 0.298
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2022: 0.929
     2030: 0.895
     2060: 0.906
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2022: 3.141
     2030: 3.215
     2060: 3.350
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2022: 0.803
     2030: 1.017
     2060: 1.401
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2022: 4.483
     2030: 4.717
     2060: 5.205
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2022: 0.568
     2030: 0.552
     2060: 0.524
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2022: 48.58
     2030: 49.47
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2022: 44.86
     2030: 47.43
     2060: 53.59
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2022: 16.86
     2030: 16.20
     2060: 15.65
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2022: 4.568
     2030: 4.121
     2060: 3.083
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2022: 5.178
     2030: 4.998
     2060: 5.283
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2022: 2.117
     2030: 1.715
     2060: 1.038

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2022: 100.9
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2022: 99.90
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2022: 101.9
     2030: 102.3
     2060: 99.99
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2022: 124.3
     2030: 117.9
     2060: 103.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2022: 82.06
     2030: 84.85
     2060: 86.25
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2022: 11.34
     2030: 12.25
     2060: 14.89
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2022: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2022: 0.004
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2022: 0.004
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2022: 0.985
     2030: 0.998
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2022: 1.688
     2030: 1.518
     2060: 1.130
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2022: 3,259
     2030: 3,365
     2060: 3,605
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2022: 1.236
     2030: 1.216
     2060: 1.151
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2022: 1.841
     2030: 1.950
     2060: 2.345

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2022: 197.3
     2030: 237.2
     2060: 424.3
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2022: 235.1
     2030: 278.2
     2060: 469.2
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2022: 40.49
     2030: 46.27
     2060: 74.99
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2022: 0.359
     2030: 0.354
     2060: 0.337
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2022: 42.22
     2030: 37.54
     2060: 35.25
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2022: 61.40
     2030: 64.13
     2060: 67.63

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2022: 0.010
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2022: 0.008
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2022: 0.238
     2030: 0.239
     2060: 0.235

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2022: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2022: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2022: 9.963
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2022: 4.405
     2030: 4.456
     2060: 4.628
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2022: 8.567
     2030: 8.642
     2060: 8.907