Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.89
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2023: 4.914
     2030: 5.150
     2060: 5.723
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2023: 0.707
     2030: 0.602
     2060: 0.209
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 11.90
     2030: 11.76
     2060: 10.55
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 7.408
     2030: 8.101
     2060: 10.61
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2023: 2.933
     2030: 2.319
     2060: 0.995
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2023: 82.41
     2030: 83.24
     2060: 86.30
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2023: 80.33
     2030: 81.11
     2060: 84.09
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2023: 84.42
     2030: 85.30
     2060: 88.47
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2023: 1.781
     2030: 1.823
     2060: 1.850
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2023: 0.073
     2030: 0.065
     2060: 0.021
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2023: 0.283
     2030: 0.304
     2060: 0.302
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2023: 0.926
     2030: 0.899
     2060: 0.917
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2023: 3.160
     2030: 3.232
     2060: 3.393
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2023: 0.828
     2030: 1.018
     2060: 1.413
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2023: 4.521
     2030: 4.738
     2060: 5.265
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2023: 0.576
     2030: 0.561
     2060: 0.533
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2023: 48.83
     2030: 49.52
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2023: 45.21
     2030: 47.53
     2060: 53.41
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2023: 16.73
     2030: 16.14
     2060: 15.64
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2023: 4.506
     2030: 4.110
     2060: 3.097
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 5.107
     2030: 5.027
     2060: 5.342
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 0.118
     2030: 0.014
     2060: 0.025

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2023: 100.9
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2023: 99.98
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 102.3
     2030: 102.1
     2060: 99.98
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 123.6
     2030: 117.8
     2060: 103.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 82.61
     2030: 85.21
     2060: 86.58
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2023: 11.45
     2030: 12.25
     2060: 14.90
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2023: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 0.003
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 0.003
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 0.988
     2030: 0.999
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 1.663
     2030: 1.514
     2060: 1.133
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2023: 3,273
     2030: 3,369
     2060: 3,598
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2023: 1.234
     2030: 1.216
     2060: 1.156
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2023: 1.854
     2030: 1.954
     2060: 2.357

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 205.3
     2030: 242.7
     2060: 447.9
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 243.3
     2030: 283.7
     2060: 494.4
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 41.79
     2030: 47.13
     2060: 78.26
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2023: 0.351
     2030: 0.346
     2060: 0.329
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2023: 41.62
     2030: 38.02
     2060: 36.88
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2023: 61.89
     2030: 64.53
     2060: 68.01

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2023: 0.008
     2030: 0.004
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2023: 0.009
     2030: 0.007
     2060: 0.000

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2023: 0.238
     2030: 0.243
     2060: 0.248

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2023: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2023: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2023: 9.576
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2023: 4.336
     2030: 4.389
     2060: 4.608
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2023: 8.682
     2030: 8.750
     2060: 9.037