Country Profile - Nepal      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Nepal
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nepal -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 31.16
     2030: 33.83
     2060: 37.75
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 1.749
     2030: 0.931
     2060: -0.088
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 19.21
     2030: 16.59
     2060: 10.42
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 6.297
     2030: 6.395
     2060: 9.571
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 22.38
     2030: 18.56
     2060: 9.519
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 72.05
     2030: 73.31
     2060: 76.83
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 70.02
     2030: 71.00
     2060: 74.25
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 73.91
     2030: 75.43
     2060: 79.28
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.957
     2030: 1.831
     2060: 1.700
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.099
     2030: 0.087
     2060: 0.026
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 2.955
     2030: 2.869
     2060: 2.012
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 8.802
     2030: 8.795
     2060: 6.323
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 20.33
     2030: 22.63
     2060: 25.79
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 2.027
     2030: 2.403
     2060: 5.636
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 6.925
     2030: 8.364
     2060: 16.62
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.282
     2030: 0.286
     2060: 0.283
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 39.09
     2030: 40.62
     2060: 45.59

Health Forecast for Nepal -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 0.618
     2030: 0.672
     2060: 1.004
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 24.55
     2030: 24.32
     2060: 24.71
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 20.15
     2030: 17.56
     2060: 9.688
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 20.50
     2030: 20.73
     2060: 18.02
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 4.685
     2030: 3.839
     2060: 1.213

Education Forecast for Nepal -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 120.2
     2030: 106.6
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 98.45
     2030: 98.86
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 108.1
     2030: 91.83
     2060: 94.42
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 75.98
     2030: 78.75
     2060: 81.98
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 16.01
     2030: 21.37
     2060: 31.60
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 5.745
     2030: 6.428
     2060: 8.286
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 70.69
     2030: 74.92
     2060: 97.82

Social/Human Forecast for Nepal
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.606
     2030: 0.566
     2060: 0.030
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 5.840
     2030: 5.829
     2060: 0.878
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.701
     2030: 0.727
     2060: 0.858
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 20.91
     2030: 17.93
     2060: 4.394
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,941
     2030: 3,007
     2060: 3,220
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.080
     2030: -0.052
     2060: 0.057
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.290
     2030: -0.259
     2060: -0.184

Economy Forecast for Nepal
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 121.2
     2030: 145.0
     2060: 301.4
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 37.37
     2030: 47.26
     2060: 140.2
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 3.889
     2030: 4.286
     2060: 7.984
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.325
     2030: 0.324
     2060: 0.327
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 43.99
     2030: 43.15
     2060: 42.49
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 18.44
     2030: 19.99
     2060: 23.94

Energy Forecast for Nepal
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.010
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Nepal
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.005
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.010

International Politics Forecast for Nepal
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.078
     2030: 0.080
     2060: 0.099

Domestic Government Forecast for Nepal
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 9.242
     2030: 9.623
     2060: 11.06
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 17.35
     2030: 18.42
     2060: 19.89
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 3.365
     2030: 3.607
     2060: 4.604
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 1.599
     2030: 1.753
     2060: 2.476
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 6.735
     2030: 6.832
     2060: 7.243