Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.78
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2021: 214.5
     2030: 276.4
     2060: 543.2
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2021: 2.904
     2030: 2.776
     2060: 1.653
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2021: 37.18
     2030: 35.10
     2060: 21.25
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2021: 7.709
     2030: 7.041
     2060: 4.589
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2021: 64.02
     2030: 55.99
     2060: 20.93
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2021: 65.87
     2030: 68.65
     2060: 78.38
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2021: 64.39
     2030: 66.98
     2060: 76.58
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2021: 67.39
     2030: 70.38
     2060: 80.25
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2021: 5.271
     2030: 4.829
     2060: 2.798
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2021: 1.507
     2030: 1.200
     2060: 0.306
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2021: 34.95
     2030: 42.60
     2060: 56.43
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2021: 92.15
     2030: 110.6
     2060: 165.5
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2021: 115.5
     2030: 154.8
     2060: 339.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2021: 6.830
     2030: 11.01
     2060: 38.19
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2021: 111.8
     2030: 158.8
     2060: 382.5
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2021: 0.301
     2030: 0.306
     2060: 0.305
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2021: 46.08
     2030: 47.75
     2060: 49.65

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2021: 7.900
     2030: 8.775
     2060: 13.51
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2021: 8.961
     2030: 9.256
     2060: 12.28
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2021: 22.26
     2030: 19.20
     2060: 7.452
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2021: 22.17
     2030: 18.10
     2060: 6.755
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2021: 10.59
     2030: 8.460
     2060: 2.916

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2021: 90.94
     2030: 96.40
     2060: 103.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2021: 74.80
     2030: 78.89
     2060: 98.01
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2021: 51.95
     2030: 64.10
     2060: 91.08
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2021: 41.72
     2030: 51.94
     2060: 79.07
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2021: 11.00
     2030: 14.76
     2060: 37.67
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2021: 7.800
     2030: 7.967
     2060: 9.256
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2021: 63.96
     2030: 76.91
     2060: 98.22

Social/Human Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2021: 37.88
     2030: 39.70
     2060: 11.52
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2021: 67.29
     2030: 73.06
     2060: 30.70
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2021: 0.659
     2030: 0.724
     2060: 0.902
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2021: 27.42
     2030: 19.68
     2060: 6.160
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2021: 2,502
     2030: 2,613
     2060: 3,088
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2021: -1.626
     2030: -1.541
     2060: -0.947
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2021: -0.363
     2030: -0.273
     2060: 0.194

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2021: 1,086
     2030: 1,577
     2060: 7,985
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2021: 511.7
     2030: 765.1
     2060: 5,875
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2021: 5.065
     2030: 5.704
     2060: 14.70
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2021: 0.423
     2030: 0.431
     2060: 0.422
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2021: 40.79
     2030: 41.21
     2060: 18.22
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2021: 6.196
     2030: 8.208
     2060: 27.97

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2021: 0.842
     2030: 0.705
     2060: 1.154

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2021: 0.042
     2030: 0.078
     2060: 0.436

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2021: 0.280
     2030: 0.288
     2060: 0.982

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2021: 8.014
     2030: 8.152
     2060: 9.099
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2021: 16.88
     2030: 16.59
     2060: 17.03
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2021: 2.347
     2030: 2.491
     2060: 3.777
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2021: 1.431
     2030: 1.631
     2060: 2.646
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2021: 6.844
     2030: 6.953
     2060: 7.578