Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.89
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2023: 227.3
     2030: 276.8
     2060: 550.6
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2023: 2.904
     2030: 2.785
     2060: 1.742
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 36.81
     2030: 35.20
     2060: 22.46
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 7.540
     2030: 7.128
     2060: 4.921
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2023: 62.21
     2030: 57.19
     2060: 25.93
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2023: 66.53
     2030: 68.50
     2060: 77.28
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2023: 65.01
     2030: 66.82
     2060: 75.37
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2023: 68.10
     2030: 70.24
     2060: 79.27
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2023: 5.191
     2030: 4.838
     2060: 2.987
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2023: 1.443
     2030: 1.200
     2060: 0.306
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2023: 36.20
     2030: 42.66
     2060: 59.58
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2023: 96.14
     2030: 110.6
     2060: 171.9
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2023: 123.5
     2030: 155.1
     2060: 340.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2023: 7.697
     2030: 11.03
     2060: 38.05
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2023: 121.3
     2030: 158.8
     2060: 386.5
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2023: 0.313
     2030: 0.316
     2060: 0.315
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2023: 46.63
     2030: 47.83
     2060: 49.67

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2023: 7.981
     2030: 8.479
     2060: 11.56
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2023: 9.016
     2030: 9.239
     2060: 11.50
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2023: 19.82
     2030: 18.10
     2060: 7.992
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 18.71
     2030: 16.06
     2060: 6.641
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 8.496
     2030: 6.782
     2060: 1.577

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2023: 92.02
     2030: 95.93
     2060: 103.4
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2023: 75.51
     2030: 78.69
     2060: 95.12
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 57.64
     2030: 66.01
     2060: 90.84
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 48.50
     2030: 54.28
     2060: 76.77
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 11.55
     2030: 14.35
     2060: 31.68
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2023: 7.841
     2030: 7.982
     2060: 9.037
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2023: 65.61
     2030: 76.73
     2060: 97.73

Social/Human Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 42.93
     2030: 43.50
     2060: 18.81
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 74.99
     2030: 78.34
     2060: 44.89
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 0.666
     2030: 0.718
     2060: 0.878
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 26.02
     2030: 19.60
     2060: 6.873
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2023: 2,650
     2030: 2,715
     2060: 3,054
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2023: -1.613
     2030: -1.546
     2060: -1.007
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2023: -0.345
     2030: -0.281
     2060: 0.080

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 1,115
     2030: 1,459
     2060: 6,037
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 551.0
     2030: 732.6
     2060: 4,073
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 4.905
     2030: 5.270
     2060: 10.96
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2023: 0.346
     2030: 0.353
     2060: 0.357
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2023: 40.39
     2030: 40.42
     2060: 17.44
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2023: 6.469
     2030: 7.770
     2060: 22.26

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2023: 0.665
     2030: 0.558
     2060: 0.750

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2023: 0.052
     2030: 0.081
     2060: 0.411

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2023: 0.286
     2030: 0.297
     2060: 0.798

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2023: 8.045
     2030: 8.145
     2060: 8.880
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2023: 16.84
     2030: 16.66
     2060: 17.24
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2023: 2.686
     2030: 2.742
     2060: 3.585
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2023: 1.543
     2030: 1.665
     2060: 2.515
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2023: 6.842
     2030: 6.889
     2060: 7.388