Country Profile - Libya      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Libya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Libya -
Population - Million People - -
     2025: 7.109
     2030: 7.521
     2060: 8.965
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2025: 1.184
     2030: 1.058
     2060: 0.111
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 16.41
     2030: 15.67
     2060: 10.50
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 4.256
     2030: 4.837
     2060: 9.174
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2025: 6.209
     2030: 5.836
     2060: 3.785
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2025: 77.98
     2030: 78.53
     2060: 82.39
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2025: 76.51
     2030: 76.96
     2060: 80.73
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2025: 79.50
     2030: 80.13
     2060: 84.10
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2025: 2.290
     2030: 2.151
     2060: 1.700
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2025: 0.009
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.003
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2025: 0.592
     2030: 0.580
     2060: 0.473
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2025: 1.874
     2030: 1.787
     2060: 1.468
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2025: 4.822
     2030: 5.172
     2060: 5.734
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2025: 0.413
     2030: 0.562
     2060: 1.763
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2025: 5.824
     2030: 6.268
     2060: 7.757
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2025: 0.327
     2030: 0.326
     2060: 0.304
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2025: 37.04
     2030: 38.34
     2060: 43.80

Health Forecast for Libya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2025: 28.38
     2030: 28.46
     2060: 29.99
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2025: 23.83
     2030: 24.77
     2060: 27.33
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2025: 10.55
     2030: 9.743
     2060: 6.842
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 9.401
     2030: 7.867
     2060: 5.473
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 5.248
     2030: 4.920
     2060: 3.117

Education Forecast for Libya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2025: 106.2
     2030: 102.9
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2025: 97.48
     2030: 98.58
     2060: 100.00
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 91.89
     2030: 96.18
     2060: 98.78
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 75.50
     2030: 81.79
     2060: 92.87
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 56.95
     2030: 57.70
     2060: 63.97
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2025: 8.227
     2030: 8.819
     2060: 11.42
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2025: 88.18
     2030: 89.84
     2060: 98.96

Social/Human Forecast for Libya
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 0.123
     2030: 0.018
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 0.706
     2030: 0.161
     2060: 0.002
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 0.888
     2030: 0.896
     2060: 0.965
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 8.525
     2030: 7.370
     2060: 2.669
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2025: 3,404
     2030: 3,409
     2060: 3,501
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2025: 0.271
     2030: 0.288
     2060: 0.239
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2025: 0.583
     2030: 0.580
     2060: 0.401

Economy Forecast for Libya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 155.9
     2030: 161.7
     2060: 262.5
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 74.50
     2030: 87.64
     2060: 192.6
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 21.93
     2030: 21.50
     2060: 29.28
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2025: 0.349
     2030: 0.359
     2060: 0.357
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2025: 45.70
     2030: 45.31
     2060: 44.17
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2025: 31.42
     2030: 33.38
     2060: 43.57

Energy Forecast for Libya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2025: 0.214
     2030: 0.253
     2060: 0.651

Environment Forecast for Libya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2025: 0.015
     2030: 0.017
     2060: 0.023

International Politics Forecast for Libya
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2025: 0.262
     2030: 0.270
     2060: 0.254

Domestic Government Forecast for Libya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2025: 3.131
     2030: 3.218
     2060: 3.691
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2025: 3.562
     2030: 4.056
     2060: 7.579
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2025: 2.659
     2030: 2.797
     2060: 4.826
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2025: 1.039
     2030: 1.163
     2060: 1.565
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2025: 4.957
     2030: 4.973
     2060: 4.839