Country Profile - Sri Lanka      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Sri Lanka
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Sri Lanka -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 22.01
     2030: 22.22
     2060: 19.89
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 0.271
     2030: 0.024
     2060: -0.737
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 13.45
     2030: 12.34
     2060: 9.204
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 7.163
     2030: 8.502
     2060: 12.98
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 6.577
     2030: 5.965
     2060: 3.970
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 77.53
     2030: 78.04
     2060: 80.74
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 74.31
     2030: 74.76
     2060: 77.63
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 80.55
     2030: 81.13
     2060: 83.72
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.944
     2030: 1.788
     2060: 1.700
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.017
     2030: 0.018
     2060: 0.020
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 1.492
     2030: 1.395
     2060: 0.932
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 4.797
     2030: 4.344
     2060: 2.945
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 14.43
     2030: 14.51
     2060: 12.22
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 2.777
     2030: 3.362
     2060: 4.720
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 4.298
     2030: 4.589
     2060: 5.758
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.394
     2030: 0.389
     2060: 0.373
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 35.43
     2030: 37.02
     2060: 42.72

Health Forecast for Sri Lanka -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 0.371
     2030: 0.482
     2060: 1.343
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 14.22
     2030: 14.54
     2060: 17.94
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 19.84
     2030: 17.41
     2060: 9.634
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 20.19
     2030: 18.94
     2060: 15.34
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 5.098
     2030: 3.287
     2060: 0.339

Education Forecast for Sri Lanka -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 102.0
     2030: 100.9
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 99.49
     2030: 100.00
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 96.00
     2030: 97.59
     2060: 99.77
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 84.64
     2030: 84.44
     2060: 88.77
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 20.27
     2030: 21.80
     2060: 30.85
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 10.52
     2030: 10.82
     2060: 11.92
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 93.13
     2030: 94.27
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Sri Lanka
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.380
     2030: 0.219
     2060: 0.027
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 3.625
     2030: 2.592
     2060: 0.596
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.867
     2030: 0.879
     2060: 0.940
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 10.00
     2030: 8.821
     2060: 4.422
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,698
     2030: 2,799
     2060: 3,162
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.196
     2030: 0.238
     2060: 0.383
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.431
     2030: 0.468
     2060: 0.639

Economy Forecast for Sri Lanka
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 256.6
     2030: 286.7
     2060: 411.8
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 86.26
     2030: 101.5
     2060: 219.5
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 11.66
     2030: 12.90
     2060: 20.71
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.375
     2030: 0.374
     2060: 0.383
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 51.96
     2030: 30.61
     2060: 24.66
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 8.912
     2030: 11.19
     2060: 22.92

Energy Forecast for Sri Lanka
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.026
     2030: 0.019
     2060: 0.002

Environment Forecast for Sri Lanka
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.007
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.009

International Politics Forecast for Sri Lanka
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.131
     2030: 0.127
     2060: 0.129

Domestic Government Forecast for Sri Lanka
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 8.011
     2030: 8.157
     2060: 8.737
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 16.01
     2030: 16.16
     2060: 17.52
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 3.676
     2030: 3.881
     2060: 5.087
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 2.402
     2030: 2.517
     2060: 3.083
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 6.728
     2030: 6.792
     2060: 7.078