Country Profile - Kenya      IFs Version 7.89
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Kenya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Kenya -
Population - Million People - -
     2023: 57.48
     2030: 66.53
     2060: 97.62
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2023: 2.204
     2030: 1.965
     2060: 0.783
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 26.85
     2030: 24.29
     2060: 14.13
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 4.717
     2030: 4.501
     2060: 6.201
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2023: 26.66
     2030: 21.38
     2060: 8.540
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2023: 69.90
     2030: 72.37
     2060: 78.78
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2023: 67.50
     2030: 69.74
     2060: 75.77
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2023: 72.29
     2030: 75.00
     2060: 81.80
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2023: 3.232
     2030: 2.842
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2023: 2.558
     2030: 2.037
     2060: 0.430
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2023: 7.246
     2030: 7.778
     2060: 6.803
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2023: 21.58
     2030: 22.10
     2060: 20.21
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2023: 34.32
     2030: 42.04
     2060: 66.91
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2023: 1.586
     2030: 2.381
     2060: 10.51
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2023: 16.94
     2030: 21.97
     2060: 51.00
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2023: 0.440
     2030: 0.437
     2060: 0.407
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2023: 49.00
     2030: 49.00
     2060: 49.00

Health Forecast for Kenya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2023: 1.937
     2030: 2.340
     2060: 5.365
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2023: 13.76
     2030: 14.06
     2060: 16.31
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2023: 8.314
     2030: 7.017
     2060: 3.255
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 7.018
     2030: 4.471
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 18.43
     2030: 12.63
     2060: 0.719

Education Forecast for Kenya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2023: 102.2
     2030: 102.7
     2060: 100.3
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2023: 81.92
     2030: 86.82
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 95.59
     2030: 98.13
     2060: 100.6
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 55.90
     2030: 59.34
     2060: 79.86
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 13.33
     2030: 16.52
     2060: 36.07
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2023: 6.702
     2030: 7.556
     2060: 9.772
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2023: 86.06
     2030: 89.67
     2060: 99.02

Social/Human Forecast for Kenya
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 11.72
     2030: 8.926
     2060: 0.256
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 20.89
     2030: 17.90
     2060: 1.222
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 0.732
     2030: 0.766
     2060: 0.887
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 14.56
     2030: 12.12
     2060: 4.729
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2023: 2,260
     2030: 2,382
     2060: 2,933
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2023: -0.156
     2030: -0.178
     2060: -0.261
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2023: -0.391
     2030: -0.344
     2060: -0.117

Economy Forecast for Kenya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 193.9
     2030: 262.0
     2060: 1,016
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 79.99
     2030: 115.1
     2060: 671.4
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 3.372
     2030: 3.937
     2060: 10.41
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2023: 0.396
     2030: 0.386
     2060: 0.348
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2023: 38.57
     2030: 39.11
     2060: 16.45
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2023: 10.98
     2030: 12.24
     2060: 26.97

Energy Forecast for Kenya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2023: 0.014
     2030: 0.015
     2060: 0.018

Environment Forecast for Kenya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2023: 0.007
     2030: 0.010
     2060: 0.024

International Politics Forecast for Kenya
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2023: 0.116
     2030: 0.119
     2060: 0.185

Domestic Government Forecast for Kenya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2023: 8.436
     2030: 8.912
     2060: 10.65
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2023: 19.41
     2030: 19.35
     2060: 18.88
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2023: 2.919
     2030: 3.070
     2060: 4.212
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2023: 2.273
     2030: 2.385
     2060: 3.042
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2023: 6.921
     2030: 7.008
     2060: 7.528