Country Profile - Japan      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Japan
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Japan -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 122.7
     2030: 118.0
     2060: 91.13
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: -0.587
     2030: -0.713
     2060: -0.978
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 6.590
     2030: 6.764
     2060: 6.465
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 12.95
     2030: 14.27
     2060: 16.75
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 1.620
     2030: 1.400
     2060: 0.730
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 85.21
     2030: 85.74
     2060: 88.23
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 82.23
     2030: 82.72
     2060: 85.22
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 88.04
     2030: 88.59
     2060: 91.08
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.325
     2030: 1.380
     2060: 1.488
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.021
     2030: 0.019
     2060: 0.006
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 4.138
     2030: 4.031
     2060: 2.995
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 13.96
     2030: 12.68
     2060: 9.460
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 71.50
     2030: 68.17
     2060: 46.73
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 37.21
     2030: 37.17
     2060: 34.94
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 113.5
     2030: 109.2
     2060: 84.32
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.552
     2030: 0.551
     2060: 0.515
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 45.51
     2030: 46.77
     2060: 49.38

Health Forecast for Japan -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 3.265
     2030: 3.990
     2060: 7.974
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 22.77
     2030: 22.42
     2060: 21.72
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 3.236
     2030: 3.047
     2060: 2.295
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 2.468
     2030: 1.937
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 1.725
     2030: 0.968
     2060: 0.006

Education Forecast for Japan -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 107.0
     2030: 103.3
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 99.99
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 103.3
     2030: 99.38
     2060: 99.87
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 103.9
     2030: 103.4
     2060: 100.8
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 65.41
     2030: 68.18
     2060: 75.31
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 13.41
     2030: 13.67
     2060: 14.39
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Japan
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.621
     2030: 0.376
     2060: 0.005
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.817
     2030: 0.503
     2060: 0.007
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 1.000
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 1.468
     2030: 1.421
     2060: 1.039
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,765
     2030: 2,872
     2060: 3,334
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.747
     2030: 0.774
     2060: 0.824
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.392
     2030: 0.392
     2060: 0.379

Economy Forecast for Japan
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 5,256
     2030: 5,542
     2060: 6,888
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 5,042
     2030: 5,330
     2060: 6,711
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 42.85
     2030: 46.96
     2060: 75.59
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.325
     2030: 0.321
     2060: 0.310
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 49.00
     2030: 44.17
     2060: 45.64
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 89.99
     2030: 90.49
     2060: 92.50

Energy Forecast for Japan
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.001
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Japan
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.266
     2030: 0.235
     2060: 0.120

International Politics Forecast for Japan
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 2.644
     2030: 2.388
     2060: 1.788

Domestic Government Forecast for Japan
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 19.95
     2030: 19.90
     2060: 19.92
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 7.820
     2030: 8.349
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 4.095
     2030: 4.148
     2060: 4.433
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 8.022
     2030: 8.069
     2060: 8.318