Country Profile - Japan      IFs Version 8.06
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Japan
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Japan -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 122.4
     2030: 117.5
     2060: 92.32
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: -0.621
     2030: -0.722
     2060: -0.891
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 7.271
     2030: 7.251
     2060: 7.308
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 13.97
     2030: 14.84
     2060: 16.72
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 1.742
     2030: 1.510
     2060: 0.820
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 84.13
     2030: 84.63
     2060: 86.96
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 80.98
     2030: 81.44
     2060: 83.75
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 87.11
     2030: 87.65
     2060: 89.98
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.366
     2030: 1.425
     2060: 1.587
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.021
     2030: 0.019
     2060: 0.006
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 4.677
     2030: 4.350
     2060: 3.427
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 14.51
     2030: 13.62
     2060: 10.76
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 71.43
     2030: 68.12
     2060: 48.44
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 36.42
     2030: 35.80
     2060: 33.12
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 112.9
     2030: 108.5
     2060: 85.22
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.552
     2030: 0.553
     2060: 0.526
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 45.79
     2030: 46.98
     2060: 49.43

Health Forecast for Japan -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 3.281
     2030: 3.989
     2060: 7.765
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 22.81
     2030: 22.58
     2060: 21.90
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 3.240
     2030: 3.050
     2060: 2.319
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 2.661
     2030: 1.526
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 1.757
     2030: 0.962
     2060: 0.018

Education Forecast for Japan -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 101.8
     2030: 100.9
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 99.99
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 99.72
     2030: 100.6
     2060: 99.59
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 100.5
     2030: 100.7
     2060: 99.80
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 64.61
     2030: 67.20
     2060: 74.48
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 12.37
     2030: 12.62
     2060: 13.65
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Japan
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.352
     2030: 0.154
     2060: 0.004
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 3.746
     2030: 2.105
     2060: 0.137
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.998
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 1.478
     2030: 1.416
     2060: 0.962
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,737
     2030: 2,840
     2060: 3,281
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.749
     2030: 0.774
     2060: 0.800
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.388
     2030: 0.384
     2060: 0.336

Economy Forecast for Japan
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 5,160
     2030: 5,354
     2060: 5,810
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 4,968
     2030: 5,167
     2060: 5,675
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2024: 42.17
     2030: 45.55
     2060: 62.94
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.326
     2030: 0.319
     2060: 0.296
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 45.31
     2030: 41.39
     2060: 43.32
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 74.61
     2030: 75.62
     2060: 81.49

Energy Forecast for Japan
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.001
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Japan
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.276
     2030: 0.249
     2060: 0.125

International Politics Forecast for Japan
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 2.640
     2030: 2.350
     2060: 1.366

Domestic Government Forecast for Japan
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 19.93
     2030: 19.88
     2060: 19.77
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 7.490
     2030: 7.947
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 4.100
     2030: 4.143
     2060: 4.324
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.994
     2030: 8.034
     2060: 8.199