Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 8.06
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 2.838
     2030: 2.854
     2060: 2.411
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 0.148
     2030: 0.000
     2060: -1.115
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 11.44
     2030: 11.32
     2060: 7.805
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 6.485
     2030: 7.683
     2060: 15.02
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 11.41
     2030: 9.598
     2060: 4.193
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 75.57
     2030: 76.22
     2060: 79.43
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 73.52
     2030: 74.01
     2060: 76.97
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 77.59
     2030: 78.40
     2060: 81.87
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.365
     2030: 1.434
     2060: 1.593
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 1.190
     2030: 1.131
     2060: 0.505
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 0.156
     2030: 0.160
     2060: 0.095
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 0.524
     2030: 0.474
     2060: 0.295
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 2.060
     2030: 2.041
     2060: 1.405
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 0.254
     2030: 0.340
     2060: 0.711
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 1.622
     2030: 1.668
     2060: 1.584
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.524
     2030: 0.514
     2060: 0.431
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 46.65
     2030: 47.75
     2060: 49.69

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 37.50
     2030: 38.81
     2060: 43.70
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 17.96
     2030: 18.12
     2060: 19.21
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 3.191
     2030: 3.052
     2060: 2.655
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.783
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 6.265
     2030: 4.953
     2060: 1.236

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 98.50
     2030: 99.50
     2060: 100.2
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 88.45
     2030: 92.09
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 91.23
     2030: 99.01
     2060: 103.1
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 82.95
     2030: 91.09
     2060: 94.14
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 29.82
     2030: 34.44
     2060: 47.67
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 9.835
     2030: 9.975
     2060: 10.80
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 88.92
     2030: 89.90
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.032
     2030: 0.040
     2060: 0.021
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.136
     2030: 0.162
     2060: 0.092
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.834
     2030: 0.843
     2060: 0.907
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 7.844
     2030: 7.153
     2060: 1.916
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,845
     2030: 2,907
     2060: 3,124
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.138
     2030: 0.155
     2060: 0.142
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.293
     2030: 0.308
     2060: 0.299

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 28.80
     2030: 30.12
     2060: 31.53
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 15.54
     2030: 16.75
     2060: 19.93
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2024: 10.15
     2030: 10.55
     2060: 13.08
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.458
     2030: 0.460
     2060: 0.462
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 61.59
     2030: 55.92
     2060: 33.10
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 15.89
     2030: 18.92
     2060: 28.26

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.003
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.042
     2030: 0.048
     2060: 0.062

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 12.05
     2030: 12.18
     2060: 12.74
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 19.59
     2030: 19.79
     2060: 19.71
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.372
     2030: 4.497
     2060: 4.966
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 3.026
     2030: 3.065
     2060: 3.245
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.724
     2030: 7.749
     2060: 7.868