Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 2.848
     2030: 2.865
     2060: 2.391
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 0.175
     2030: -0.014
     2060: -1.190
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 11.02
     2030: 10.49
     2060: 6.686
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 5.789
     2030: 6.999
     2060: 14.68
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 12.41
     2030: 10.20
     2060: 3.596
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 76.88
     2030: 77.66
     2060: 81.50
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 75.01
     2030: 75.66
     2060: 79.08
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 78.72
     2030: 79.63
     2060: 83.90
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.328
     2030: 1.396
     2060: 1.498
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 1.189
     2030: 1.129
     2060: 0.504
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 0.158
     2030: 0.151
     2060: 0.082
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 0.529
     2030: 0.466
     2060: 0.258
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 2.065
     2030: 2.057
     2060: 1.384
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 0.253
     2030: 0.343
     2060: 0.748
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 1.631
     2030: 1.685
     2060: 1.598
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.511
     2030: 0.501
     2060: 0.415
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 46.16
     2030: 47.36
     2060: 49.60

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 37.55
     2030: 39.09
     2060: 45.75
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 17.98
     2030: 18.20
     2060: 20.15
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 3.232
     2030: 3.080
     2060: 2.525
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 2.393
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 6.369
     2030: 4.921
     2060: 0.842

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 98.10
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 88.28
     2030: 92.31
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 90.49
     2030: 97.39
     2060: 101.7
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 80.02
     2030: 86.60
     2060: 97.52
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 30.62
     2030: 34.12
     2060: 51.59
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 10.36
     2030: 10.56
     2060: 11.40
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 88.96
     2030: 90.05
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.039
     2030: 0.041
     2060: 0.008
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.226
     2030: 0.230
     2060: 0.062
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.838
     2030: 0.850
     2060: 0.933
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 7.815
     2030: 7.050
     2060: 1.535
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,894
     2030: 2,967
     2060: 3,256
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.116
     2030: 0.137
     2060: 0.160
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.238
     2030: 0.260
     2060: 0.317

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 27.10
     2030: 29.12
     2060: 40.93
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 15.70
     2030: 17.37
     2060: 31.22
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 9.515
     2030: 10.16
     2060: 17.12
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.456
     2030: 0.459
     2060: 0.465
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 55.55
     2030: 41.35
     2060: 36.34
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 23.58
     2030: 25.54
     2060: 35.00

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.002
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.000

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.041
     2030: 0.047
     2060: 0.066

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 12.06
     2030: 12.22
     2060: 13.10
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 19.50
     2030: 19.81
     2060: 19.84
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.490
     2030: 4.630
     2060: 5.604
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 3.075
     2030: 3.128
     2060: 3.470
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.744
     2030: 7.785
     2060: 8.080