Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.79
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2022: 2.991
     2030: 3.074
     2060: 2.941
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2022: 0.430
     2030: 0.216
     2060: -0.520
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2022: 15.40
     2030: 14.01
     2060: 10.65
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2022: 7.144
     2030: 7.863
     2060: 11.78
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2022: 11.21
     2030: 8.504
     2060: 3.070
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2022: 75.61
     2030: 76.60
     2060: 80.32
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2022: 73.58
     2030: 74.38
     2060: 77.92
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2022: 77.62
     2030: 78.81
     2060: 82.73
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2022: 1.904
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2022: 1.215
     2030: 1.144
     2060: 0.511
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2022: 0.231
     2030: 0.217
     2060: 0.159
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2022: 0.688
     2030: 0.662
     2060: 0.485
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2022: 2.022
     2030: 2.050
     2060: 1.786
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2022: 0.281
     2030: 0.362
     2060: 0.670
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2022: 1.695
     2030: 1.804
     2060: 1.932
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2022: 0.508
     2030: 0.500
     2060: 0.450
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2022: 47.33
     2030: 48.58
     2060: 49.87

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2022: 32.32
     2030: 34.04
     2060: 40.37
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2022: 17.96
     2030: 18.13
     2060: 19.82
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2022: 1.924
     2030: 1.818
     2060: 1.613
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2022: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2022: 8.098
     2030: 6.510
     2060: 2.970

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2022: 96.08
     2030: 99.10
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2022: 89.66
     2030: 94.44
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2022: 89.44
     2030: 96.63
     2060: 99.26
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2022: 85.04
     2030: 92.57
     2060: 97.38
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2022: 33.75
     2030: 42.29
     2060: 61.50
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2022: 9.244
     2030: 9.601
     2060: 10.97
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2022: 89.01
     2030: 90.50
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2022: 0.295
     2030: 0.266
     2060: 0.077
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2022: 0.616
     2030: 0.574
     2060: 0.218
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2022: 0.821
     2030: 0.837
     2060: 0.917
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2022: 7.733
     2030: 6.665
     2060: 1.241
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2022: 2,810
     2030: 2,904
     2060: 3,218
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2022: 0.090
     2030: 0.109
     2060: 0.103
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2022: 0.169
     2030: 0.194
     2060: 0.237

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2022: 23.77
     2030: 26.83
     2060: 42.26
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2022: 14.88
     2030: 17.03
     2060: 32.31
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2022: 7.949
     2030: 8.726
     2060: 14.37
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2022: 0.449
     2030: 0.447
     2060: 0.430
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2022: 50.83
     2030: 43.72
     2060: 22.58
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2022: 18.49
     2030: 22.87
     2060: 39.86

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2022: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2022: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.002

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2022: 0.048
     2030: 0.055
     2060: 0.072

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2022: 11.13
     2030: 11.43
     2060: 12.51
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2022: 19.27
     2030: 19.73
     2060: 19.53
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2022: 3.341
     2030: 3.599
     2060: 4.636
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2022: 2.908
     2030: 2.990
     2060: 3.327
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2022: 7.163
     2030: 7.229
     2060: 7.489