Country Profile - Italy      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Italy
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Italy -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 58.87
     2030: 57.53
     2060: 46.71
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: -0.329
     2030: -0.428
     2060: -0.984
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 6.451
     2030: 6.668
     2060: 6.337
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 11.63
     2030: 12.51
     2060: 17.36
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 2.146
     2030: 1.812
     2060: 0.824
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 83.65
     2030: 84.22
     2060: 87.09
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 81.31
     2030: 81.86
     2060: 84.62
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 85.88
     2030: 86.47
     2060: 89.44
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.229
     2030: 1.291
     2060: 1.429
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.207
     2030: 0.185
     2060: 0.061
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 1.992
     2030: 1.930
     2060: 1.505
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 7.036
     2030: 6.255
     2060: 4.831
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 37.22
     2030: 35.18
     2060: 24.97
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 14.62
     2030: 16.10
     2060: 16.91
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 42.16
     2030: 41.82
     2060: 35.47
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.421
     2030: 0.413
     2060: 0.386
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 43.57
     2030: 44.96
     2060: 48.50

Health Forecast for Italy -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 23.30
     2030: 23.80
     2060: 24.83
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 23.94
     2030: 23.43
     2060: 22.49
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 1.938
     2030: 1.904
     2060: 1.833
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 1.634
     2030: 1.235
     2060: 0.971
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.007

Education Forecast for Italy -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 104.0
     2030: 102.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 98.73
     2030: 99.98
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 103.4
     2030: 104.5
     2060: 100.7
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 100.6
     2030: 100.6
     2060: 100.6
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 63.49
     2030: 65.18
     2060: 69.39
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 10.92
     2030: 11.42
     2060: 13.43
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 99.55
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Italy
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.302
     2030: 0.176
     2060: 0.007
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.435
     2030: 0.260
     2060: 0.011
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.996
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.827
     2030: 0.823
     2060: 0.820
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 3,739
     2030: 3,773
     2060: 3,842
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.326
     2030: 0.374
     2060: 0.592
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.785
     2030: 0.863
     2060: 1.121

Economy Forecast for Italy
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 2,589
     2030: 2,687
     2060: 3,271
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 2,068
     2030: 2,174
     2060: 2,829
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 43.97
     2030: 46.71
     2060: 70.02
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.350
     2030: 0.347
     2060: 0.330
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 38.02
     2030: 35.66
     2060: 37.17
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 48.95
     2030: 49.93
     2060: 53.66

Energy Forecast for Italy
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.037
     2030: 0.041
     2060: 0.020

Environment Forecast for Italy
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.079
     2030: 0.069
     2060: 0.032

International Politics Forecast for Italy
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 1.508
     2030: 1.357
     2060: 1.016

Domestic Government Forecast for Italy
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 6.101
     2030: 6.633
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 2.998
     2030: 3.104
     2060: 3.695
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.676
     2030: 7.706
     2060: 7.907