Country Profile - Hong Kong      IFs Version 7.89
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Hong Kong
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Hong Kong -
Population - Million People - -
     2023: 7.291
     2030: 7.286
     2060: 6.090
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2023: -0.084
     2030: -0.131
     2060: -0.772
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 8.522
     2030: 6.939
     2060: 7.237
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2023: 12.21
     2030: 12.24
     2060: 17.52
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2023: 0.864
     2030: 0.707
     2060: 0.361
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2023: 77.19
     2030: 78.17
     2060: 81.58
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2023: 74.03
     2030: 74.95
     2060: 78.40
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2023: 79.90
     2030: 80.88
     2060: 84.29
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2023: 1.155
     2030: 1.234
     2060: 1.466
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2023: 0.009
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.003
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2023: 0.330
     2030: 0.284
     2060: 0.232
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2023: 0.933
     2030: 0.960
     2060: 0.739
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2023: 5.119
     2030: 4.742
     2060: 3.357
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2023: 1.239
     2030: 1.583
     2060: 1.994
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2023: 7.291
     2030: 7.286
     2060: 6.072
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2023: 0.535
     2030: 0.507
     2060: 0.445
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2023: 49.31
     2030: 49.31
     2060: 49.31

Health Forecast for Hong Kong -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2023: 26.08
     2030: 27.81
     2060: 31.02
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2023: 16.14
     2030: 15.98
     2060: 16.11
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2023: 3.541
     2030: 3.147
     2060: 2.553
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 2.429
     2030: 3.122
     2060: 2.337
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2023: 0.390
     2030: 0.230
     2060: 0.118

Education Forecast for Hong Kong -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2023: 101.7
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2023: 97.48
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 111.4
     2030: 103.5
     2060: 100.3
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 103.1
     2030: 99.86
     2060: 98.97
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2023: 79.34
     2030: 84.08
     2060: 86.60
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2023: 11.66
     2030: 12.04
     2060: 13.40
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2023: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Hong Kong
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 0.009
     2030: 0.010
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2023: 0.009
     2030: 0.010
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 0.980
     2030: 0.993
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2023: 1.599
     2030: 1.451
     2060: 1.156
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2023: 3,332
     2030: 3,439
     2060: 3,630
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2023: 0.556
     2030: 0.608
     2060: 0.750
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2023: 1.357
     2030: 1.378
     2060: 1.298

Economy Forecast for Hong Kong
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 445.1
     2030: 504.4
     2060: 620.7
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 309.7
     2030: 359.1
     2060: 491.3
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2023: 61.05
     2030: 69.22
     2060: 101.9
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2023: 0.405
     2030: 0.396
     2060: 0.363
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2023: 60.00
     2030: 53.76
     2060: 49.16
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2023: 42.28
     2030: 44.68
     2060: 57.19

Energy Forecast for Hong Kong
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2023: 0.054
     2030: 0.041
     2060: 0.005

Environment Forecast for Hong Kong
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2023: 0.009
     2030: 0.008
     2060: -0.004

International Politics Forecast for Hong Kong
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2023: 0.556
     2030: 0.579
     2060: 0.457

Domestic Government Forecast for Hong Kong
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2023: 2.203
     2030: 2.244
     2060: 2.398
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2023: 19.66
     2030: 19.68
     2060: 19.75
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2023: 8.264
     2030: 9.419
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2023: 4.421
     2030: 4.488
     2060: 4.683
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2023: 9.005
     2030: 9.078
     2060: 9.301