Country Profile - Guatemala      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Guatemala
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Guatemala -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 18.43
     2030: 20.06
     2060: 25.19
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 1.455
     2030: 1.313
     2060: 0.327
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 20.17
     2030: 18.78
     2060: 11.35
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 5.177
     2030: 5.225
     2060: 7.796
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 13.75
     2030: 10.46
     2060: 3.089
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 73.44
     2030: 74.57
     2060: 79.23
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 70.35
     2030: 71.32
     2060: 75.92
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 76.49
     2030: 77.76
     2060: 82.46
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 2.275
     2030: 2.142
     2060: 1.700
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.296
     2030: 0.341
     2060: 0.509
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 1.850
     2030: 1.867
     2060: 1.452
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 5.739
     2030: 5.620
     2060: 4.453
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 11.74
     2030: 13.26
     2060: 16.87
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 0.957
     2030: 1.176
     2060: 3.863
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 9.550
     2030: 10.82
     2060: 16.17
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.372
     2030: 0.375
     2060: 0.359
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 33.19
     2030: 34.81
     2060: 40.83

Health Forecast for Guatemala -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 44.80
     2030: 47.18
     2060: 57.81
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 11.41
     2030: 12.06
     2060: 14.65
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 12.70
     2030: 10.81
     2060: 5.514
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 12.01
     2030: 9.202
     2060: 1.421
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 11.75
     2030: 9.402
     2060: 2.480

Education Forecast for Guatemala -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 104.4
     2030: 104.4
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 93.48
     2030: 95.78
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 73.03
     2030: 79.92
     2060: 94.42
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 42.41
     2030: 50.90
     2060: 77.45
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 22.82
     2030: 25.14
     2060: 39.99
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 6.193
     2030: 6.744
     2060: 9.026
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 82.80
     2030: 85.45
     2060: 97.56

Social/Human Forecast for Guatemala
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 1.181
     2030: 0.959
     2060: 0.228
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 3.714
     2030: 3.303
     2060: 1.206
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.795
     2030: 0.817
     2060: 0.921
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 12.48
     2030: 10.54
     2060: 2.597
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,765
     2030: 2,859
     2060: 3,244
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.045
     2030: 0.074
     2060: 0.149
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.193
     2030: 0.229
     2060: 0.355

Economy Forecast for Guatemala
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 165.7
     2030: 201.4
     2060: 499.2
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 91.15
     2030: 116.5
     2060: 401.6
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 8.988
     2030: 10.04
     2060: 19.82
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.482
     2030: 0.479
     2060: 0.475
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 30.86
     2030: 20.24
     2060: 19.89
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 9.867
     2030: 11.99
     2060: 26.78

Energy Forecast for Guatemala
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.004
     2030: 0.004
     2060: 0.002

Environment Forecast for Guatemala
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.007
     2030: 0.009
     2060: 0.019

International Politics Forecast for Guatemala
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.108
     2030: 0.111
     2060: 0.161

Domestic Government Forecast for Guatemala
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 8.166
     2030: 8.489
     2060: 9.901
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 18.36
     2030: 19.19
     2060: 19.42
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 2.693
     2030: 2.999
     2060: 4.897
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 1.908
     2030: 2.074
     2060: 2.866
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.853
     2030: 7.930
     2060: 8.326