Country Profile - United Kingdom      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for United Kingdom
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for United Kingdom -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 67.72
     2030: 68.36
     2060: 68.37
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 0.147
     2030: 0.136
     2060: -0.143
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 9.513
     2030: 9.538
     2060: 8.651
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 9.987
     2030: 10.49
     2060: 12.35
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 3.020
     2030: 2.584
     2060: 1.244
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 81.61
     2030: 82.24
     2060: 85.17
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 79.77
     2030: 80.36
     2060: 83.15
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 83.41
     2030: 84.08
     2060: 87.15
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.505
     2030: 1.575
     2060: 1.617
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.133
     2030: 0.119
     2060: 0.039
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 3.346
     2030: 3.282
     2060: 3.000
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 11.49
     2030: 10.54
     2060: 9.538
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 42.93
     2030: 42.97
     2060: 40.17
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 13.31
     2030: 14.85
     2060: 18.66
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 57.83
     2030: 59.69
     2060: 61.08
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.517
     2030: 0.510
     2060: 0.482
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 48.60
     2030: 49.37
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for United Kingdom -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 36.72
     2030: 37.78
     2060: 40.88
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 19.39
     2030: 18.67
     2060: 18.50
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 1.929
     2030: 1.876
     2060: 1.765
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 2.058
     2030: 2.180
     2060: 2.939
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.020

Education Forecast for United Kingdom -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 101.8
     2030: 101.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 99.44
     2030: 100.00
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 109.5
     2030: 108.0
     2060: 101.6
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 114.0
     2030: 110.8
     2060: 102.9
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 62.24
     2030: 63.16
     2060: 66.80
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 12.76
     2030: 13.03
     2060: 14.17
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for United Kingdom
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.241
     2030: 0.187
     2060: 0.009
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.241
     2030: 0.187
     2060: 0.009
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.990
     2030: 0.996
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.963
     2030: 0.902
     2060: 0.729
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 3,472
     2030: 3,524
     2060: 3,670
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 1.138
     2030: 1.152
     2060: 1.148
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 1.247
     2030: 1.292
     2060: 1.501

Economy Forecast for United Kingdom
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 3,146
     2030: 3,370
     2060: 4,794
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 2,825
     2030: 3,046
     2060: 4,478
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 46.45
     2030: 49.30
     2060: 70.12
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.324
     2030: 0.325
     2060: 0.314
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 70.51
     2030: 64.59
     2060: 56.10
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 58.61
     2030: 58.66
     2060: 60.74

Energy Forecast for United Kingdom
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.292
     2030: 0.218
     2060: 0.018

Environment Forecast for United Kingdom
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.087
     2030: 0.077
     2060: 0.037

International Politics Forecast for United Kingdom
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 4.308
     2030: 4.002
     2060: 3.413

Domestic Government Forecast for United Kingdom
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 18.07
     2030: 18.15
     2060: 18.55
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 8.373
     2030: 8.788
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 3.913
     2030: 3.962
     2060: 4.241
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 8.213
     2030: 8.247
     2060: 8.447