Country Profile - Ethiopia      IFs Version 8.06
  Continue    Change Country    Display Options    Map Source    Help  


Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
www.ifs.du.edu


Sign up for our monthly newsletter.

     Forecast Categories for Ethiopia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Ethiopia -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 127.1
     2030: 144.8
     2060: 227.1
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 2.209
     2030: 2.146
     2060: 0.836
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 28.47
     2030: 27.57
     2060: 14.20
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 6.259
     2030: 6.023
     2060: 5.786
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 34.90
     2030: 29.03
     2060: 3.445
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 66.69
     2030: 68.10
     2060: 76.82
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 65.75
     2030: 67.11
     2060: 75.25
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 67.64
     2030: 69.12
     2060: 78.43
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 4.122
     2030: 3.777
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.471
     2030: 0.391
     2060: 0.088
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 16.14
     2030: 18.54
     2060: 16.29
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 47.75
     2030: 50.95
     2060: 52.13
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 75.12
     2030: 88.59
     2060: 156.1
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 4.197
     2030: 5.264
     2060: 18.96
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 29.73
     2030: 38.03
     2060: 105.8
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.484
     2030: 0.487
     2060: 0.471
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 47.78
     2030: 48.71
     2060: 49.91

Health Forecast for Ethiopia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 0.365
     2030: 0.611
     2060: 2.914
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 4.940
     2030: 5.231
     2060: 8.805
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 18.50
     2030: 15.02
     2060: 3.706
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 18.67
     2030: 15.07
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 18.28
     2030: 14.32
     2060: 1.400

Education Forecast for Ethiopia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 114.4
     2030: 121.3
     2060: 113.4
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 86.69
     2030: 89.16
     2060: 97.85
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 49.42
     2030: 62.38
     2060: 94.45
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 23.94
     2030: 30.36
     2060: 63.89
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 9.547
     2030: 12.44
     2060: 30.69
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 3.627
     2030: 3.731
     2060: 6.073
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 54.99
     2030: 65.71
     2060: 95.02

Social/Human Forecast for Ethiopia
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 24.08
     2030: 18.12
     2060: 0.043
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 65.92
     2030: 57.80
     2060: 1.029
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.593
     2030: 0.649
     2060: 0.882
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 32.35
     2030: 24.95
     2060: 4.298
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 2,511
     2030: 2,621
     2060: 3,250
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.120
     2030: -0.139
     2060: -0.148
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.587
     2030: -0.516
     2060: -0.042

Economy Forecast for Ethiopia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 313.2
     2030: 445.1
     2060: 3,325
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 127.3
     2030: 196.2
     2060: 2,514
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2024: 2.465
     2030: 3.074
     2060: 14.64
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.357
     2030: 0.369
     2060: 0.350
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 30.91
     2030: 31.43
     2060: 9.560
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 9.625
     2030: 11.36
     2060: 26.22

Energy Forecast for Ethiopia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.043
     2030: 0.033
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for Ethiopia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.009
     2030: 0.015
     2060: 0.156

International Politics Forecast for Ethiopia
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.117
     2030: 0.128
     2060: 0.400

Domestic Government Forecast for Ethiopia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 4.040
     2030: 4.208
     2060: 5.511
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 11.33
     2030: 11.97
     2060: 16.01
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 3.725
     2030: 3.857
     2060: 5.708
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 1.967
     2030: 2.128
     2060: 3.235
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 5.950
     2030: 6.083
     2060: 6.993