Country Profile - Cuba      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Cuba
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Cuba -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 11.23
     2030: 11.06
     2060: 9.102
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: -0.214
     2030: -0.313
     2060: -0.946
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 8.769
     2030: 8.535
     2060: 7.500
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 10.08
     2030: 11.18
     2060: 16.33
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 3.530
     2030: 3.043
     2060: 1.277
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 79.08
     2030: 79.72
     2060: 83.78
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 76.56
     2030: 77.10
     2060: 80.93
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 81.56
     2030: 82.29
     2060: 86.53
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.477
     2030: 1.522
     2060: 1.582
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.349
     2030: 0.493
     2060: 1.161
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 0.503
     2030: 0.480
     2060: 0.348
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 1.710
     2030: 1.539
     2060: 1.097
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 7.627
     2030: 7.179
     2060: 5.085
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 1.893
     2030: 2.346
     2060: 2.920
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 8.714
     2030: 8.664
     2060: 7.342
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.436
     2030: 0.421
     2060: 0.387
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 39.02
     2030: 40.55
     2060: 45.54

Health Forecast for Cuba -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 39.75
     2030: 41.19
     2060: 47.31
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 35.71
     2030: 35.48
     2060: 35.25
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 2.379
     2030: 2.290
     2060: 1.809
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 1.805
     2030: 1.047
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.014
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.066

Education Forecast for Cuba -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 102.2
     2030: 101.3
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 99.44
     2030: 99.98
     2060: 100.00
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 98.40
     2030: 99.27
     2060: 100.1
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 106.4
     2030: 105.8
     2060: 100.8
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 40.76
     2030: 45.20
     2060: 64.23
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 11.41
     2030: 11.60
     2060: 12.53
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Cuba
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.453
     2030: 0.327
     2060: 0.021
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 1.623
     2030: 1.272
     2060: 0.155
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.927
     2030: 0.934
     2060: 0.992
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 1.612
     2030: 1.499
     2060: 0.932
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 3,328
     2030: 3,394
     2060: 3,660
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.279
     2030: 0.300
     2060: 0.404
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.691
     2030: 0.716
     2060: 0.817

Economy Forecast for Cuba
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 218.7
     2030: 227.6
     2060: 353.9
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 90.73
     2030: 99.73
     2060: 251.5
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 19.48
     2030: 20.57
     2060: 38.88
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.414
     2030: 0.414
     2060: 0.398
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 49.62
     2030: 48.33
     2060: 42.61
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 23.43
     2030: 27.04
     2060: 51.65

Energy Forecast for Cuba
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.028
     2030: 0.018
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for Cuba
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.007
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.011

International Politics Forecast for Cuba
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.288
     2030: 0.270
     2060: 0.255

Domestic Government Forecast for Cuba
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 3.014
     2030: 3.048
     2060: 3.274
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 5.532
     2030: 6.189
     2060: 9.307
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.774
     2030: 4.994
     2060: 7.601
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 2.356
     2030: 2.461
     2060: 3.202
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.190
     2030: 7.227
     2060: 7.589