Country Profile - Cuba      IFs Version 8.06
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Cuba
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Cuba -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 11.27
     2030: 11.17
     2060: 9.479
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: -0.130
     2030: -0.222
     2060: -0.793
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 9.582
     2030: 9.304
     2060: 8.525
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 10.05
     2030: 11.04
     2060: 15.83
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 3.826
     2030: 3.237
     2060: 1.385
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 79.11
     2030: 79.81
     2060: 83.66
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 76.77
     2030: 77.37
     2060: 81.00
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 81.43
     2030: 82.22
     2060: 86.27
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.546
     2030: 1.593
     2060: 1.698
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.368
     2030: 0.512
     2060: 1.164
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 0.544
     2030: 0.529
     2060: 0.410
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 1.746
     2030: 1.624
     2060: 1.268
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 7.614
     2030: 7.188
     2060: 5.292
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 1.912
     2030: 2.353
     2060: 2.919
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 8.718
     2030: 8.682
     2060: 7.554
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.470
     2030: 0.454
     2060: 0.420
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 39.34
     2030: 40.84
     2060: 45.69

Health Forecast for Cuba -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 38.81
     2030: 40.14
     2060: 45.39
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 35.54
     2030: 35.24
     2060: 35.33
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 2.495
     2030: 2.409
     2060: 1.938
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 2.414
     2030: 1.735
     2060: 0.426
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.652
     2030: 0.436
     2060: 0.137

Education Forecast for Cuba -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 102.1
     2030: 101.5
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 99.71
     2030: 99.98
     2060: 100.00
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 97.95
     2030: 99.17
     2060: 99.80
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 104.0
     2030: 103.7
     2060: 99.71
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 40.75
     2030: 47.42
     2060: 66.82
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 10.31
     2030: 10.53
     2060: 11.94
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Cuba
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.519
     2030: 0.407
     2060: 0.033
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 1.745
     2030: 1.455
     2060: 0.226
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.926
     2030: 0.935
     2060: 0.988
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 1.844
     2030: 1.714
     2060: 1.050
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 3,285
     2030: 3,348
     2060: 3,583
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.301
     2030: 0.320
     2060: 0.401
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: 0.746
     2030: 0.765
     2060: 0.824

Economy Forecast for Cuba
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 215.4
     2030: 233.4
     2060: 347.3
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 89.15
     2030: 99.48
     2060: 235.5
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2024: 19.11
     2030: 20.90
     2060: 36.63
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.424
     2030: 0.424
     2060: 0.397
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 43.53
     2030: 41.91
     2060: 35.47
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 27.27
     2030: 31.71
     2060: 53.12

Energy Forecast for Cuba
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 0.033
     2030: 0.020
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for Cuba
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 0.007
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.012

International Politics Forecast for Cuba
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 0.283
     2030: 0.264
     2060: 0.229

Domestic Government Forecast for Cuba
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 3.002
     2030: 3.041
     2060: 3.300
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 5.630
     2030: 6.286
     2060: 9.416
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.592
     2030: 4.903
     2060: 7.242
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 2.324
     2030: 2.452
     2060: 3.157
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 7.192
     2030: 7.247
     2060: 7.569