Country Profile - China      IFs Version 8.28
  Continue    Change Country    Display Options    Map Source    Help  


Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 1,423
     2030: 1,409
     2060: 1,166
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: -0.132
     2030: -0.238
     2060: -1.049
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 7.240
     2030: 7.402
     2060: 6.286
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 8.342
     2030: 9.579
     2060: 16.57
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 6.084
     2030: 5.230
     2060: 2.833
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 78.17
     2030: 78.99
     2060: 82.95
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 75.23
     2030: 76.00
     2060: 79.79
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 81.22
     2030: 82.07
     2060: 86.07
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.187
     2030: 1.327
     2060: 1.453
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.051
     2030: 0.046
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 58.28
     2030: 51.83
     2060: 37.41
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 232.7
     2030: 186.3
     2060: 125.1
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 987.2
     2030: 969.9
     2060: 652.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 203.1
     2030: 252.3
     2060: 388.3
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 934.5
     2030: 1,019
     2060: 984.1
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.524
     2030: 0.512
     2060: 0.438
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 46.10
     2030: 47.31
     2060: 49.58

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 9.731
     2030: 10.92
     2060: 14.08
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 25.94
     2030: 26.59
     2060: 27.65
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 2.232
     2030: 2.012
     2060: 1.663
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 1.925
     2030: 0.740
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.001

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 101.6
     2030: 101.2
     2060: 100.00
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 96.88
     2030: 98.01
     2060: 100.00
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 100.3
     2030: 102.0
     2060: 101.9
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 85.35
     2030: 88.14
     2060: 98.69
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 52.32
     2030: 54.74
     2060: 68.52
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 8.654
     2030: 9.126
     2060: 11.46
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 97.41
     2030: 98.15
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for China
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.691
     2030: 0.199
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 13.79
     2030: 5.424
     2060: 0.016
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.910
     2030: 0.927
     2060: 0.997
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 2.592
     2030: 2.055
     2060: 1.124
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 3,356
     2030: 3,463
     2060: 3,722
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.190
     2030: -0.174
     2060: -0.025
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.837
     2030: -0.790
     2060: -0.581

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 26,205
     2030: 31,079
     2060: 54,628
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 17,509
     2030: 22,687
     2060: 50,610
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 18.42
     2030: 22.06
     2060: 46.85
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.378
     2030: 0.376
     2060: 0.353
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 21.07
     2030: 20.49
     2060: 23.62
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 54.98
     2030: 58.31
     2060: 74.35

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 1.334
     2030: 1.218
     2060: 0.420

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 3.032
     2030: 3.097
     2060: 2.199

International Politics Forecast for China
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 9.111
     2030: 10.50
     2060: 14.04

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 3.057
     2030: 3.156
     2060: 3.644
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 3.541
     2030: 4.179
     2060: 7.990
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.529
     2030: 5.021
     2060: 8.352
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 3.234
     2030: 3.350
     2060: 3.852
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 6.602
     2030: 6.694
     2060: 7.087