Country Profile - China      IFs Version 8.06
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2024: 1,432
     2030: 1,432
     2060: 1,257
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2024: 0.051
     2030: -0.112
     2060: -0.742
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 9.543
     2030: 8.936
     2060: 8.094
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2024: 8.815
     2030: 9.851
     2060: 15.30
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2024: 8.708
     2030: 7.336
     2060: 3.872
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2024: 77.24
     2030: 78.23
     2060: 82.49
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2024: 74.06
     2030: 75.01
     2060: 79.32
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2024: 80.54
     2030: 81.52
     2060: 85.64
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2024: 1.422
     2030: 1.544
     2060: 1.666
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2024: 0.051
     2030: 0.045
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2024: 70.28
     2030: 66.39
     2060: 51.91
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2024: 245.2
     2030: 216.6
     2060: 166.3
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2024: 982.1
     2030: 969.9
     2060: 709.1
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2024: 204.7
     2030: 245.1
     2060: 381.4
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2024: 940.3
     2030: 1,032
     2060: 1,058
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2024: 0.539
     2030: 0.529
     2060: 0.462
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2024: 46.43
     2030: 47.56
     2060: 49.63

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2024: 9.790
     2030: 11.05
     2060: 13.92
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2024: 25.97
     2030: 26.73
     2060: 27.48
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2024: 2.198
     2030: 1.958
     2060: 1.620
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 1.642
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2024: 0.031
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.001

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2024: 101.3
     2030: 100.9
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2024: 96.88
     2030: 98.59
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 101.1
     2030: 103.1
     2060: 101.7
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 81.13
     2030: 86.98
     2060: 97.30
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2024: 52.06
     2030: 54.45
     2060: 66.45
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2024: 8.420
     2030: 8.829
     2060: 11.23
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2024: 97.34
     2030: 97.90
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for China
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 0.709
     2030: 0.147
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2024: 21.75
     2030: 7.219
     2060: 0.008
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 0.904
     2030: 0.923
     2060: 0.998
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2024: 2.752
     2030: 2.193
     2060: 1.098
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2024: 3,397
     2030: 3,509
     2060: 3,746
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.190
     2030: -0.171
     2060: 0.012
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2024: -0.834
     2030: -0.785
     2060: -0.533

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 25,780
     2030: 32,197
     2060: 62,301
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2024: 17,427
     2030: 23,745
     2060: 57,879
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2024: 18.00
     2030: 22.49
     2060: 49.57
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2024: 0.379
     2030: 0.376
     2060: 0.338
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2024: 19.16
     2030: 18.51
     2060: 22.41
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2024: 54.65
     2030: 58.38
     2060: 71.88

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2024: 1.262
     2030: 1.127
     2060: 0.203

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2024: 2.810
     2030: 2.838
     2060: 1.651

International Politics Forecast for China
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2024: 9.228
     2030: 10.98
     2060: 14.92

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2024: 3.055
     2030: 3.148
     2060: 3.624
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2024: 3.663
     2030: 4.303
     2060: 8.113
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2024: 4.448
     2030: 5.040
     2060: 8.647
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2024: 3.117
     2030: 3.267
     2060: 3.837
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2024: 6.606
     2030: 6.719
     2060: 7.137