In preparation for Strengthening Global Governance, the fifth volume of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series, we have made significant model improvements related to the sociopolitical dimensions of human development. The conceptual underpinning for our efforts is an analysis of the character of domestic governance that focuses on three themes—security, capacity, and inclusion—and each of these dimensions of governance now is more fully developed within IFs. The security dimension is represented both as a probabilistic measure of state failure and an index capturing state fragility. The capacity dimension is ability to mobilize resources, as measured by revenues as a percentage of GDP, and effective use of them, as measured especially by low corruption levels. The inclusion dimension is built upon an indicator of regime type and a gender empowerment measure. New versions of the model with these improvements are available upon request.
Dale S. Rothman presented at the recent workshop on “The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research” hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. This workshop is part of the process by which the scientific community is creating new climate change scenarios as requested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr. Rothman gave a general introduction to the capabilities of the IFs system and then emphasized the system’s capacity to produce relatively detailed forecasts of human development over long time horizons for the purpose of enhancing analysis of mitigation, impact, vulnerability, and adaptation related to climate change.
Jonathan D. Moyer recently met with senior staff at the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP). The focus of the meeting was training in general use of the International Futures model, with an emphasis on the impacts of R&D spending for long-term development. The training was followed by discussion of a possible extended partnership focused on scenario development for the South Korean government.