Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.37
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2018: 4.708
     2030: 5.024
     2060: 5.563
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2018: 0.648
     2030: 0.480
     2060: 0.223
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 12.71
     2030: 11.69
     2060: 10.74
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 7.047
     2030: 8.208
     2060: 10.46
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2018: 3.632
     2030: 2.264
     2060: 0.940
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2018: 82.19
     2030: 83.95
     2060: 87.28
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2018: 80.43
     2030: 82.10
     2060: 85.34
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2018: 83.89
     2030: 85.75
     2060: 89.20
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2018: 1.925
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2018: 0.055
     2030: 0.046
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2018: 0.300
     2030: 0.295
     2060: 0.298
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2018: 0.927
     2030: 0.897
     2060: 0.906
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2018: 3.039
     2030: 3.076
     2060: 3.251
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2018: 0.742
     2030: 1.050
     2060: 1.407
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2018: 4.092
     2030: 4.566
     2060: 5.118
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2018: 0.503
     2030: 0.366
     2060: 0.303
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2018: 48.05
     2030: 49.51
     2060: 49.98

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2018: 51.51
     2030: 56.02
     2060: 61.23
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2018: 17.12
     2030: 15.74
     2060: 15.47
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2018: 5.150
     2030: 4.414
     2060: 3.358
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 5.663
     2030: 6.110
     2060: 6.477
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 2.132
     2030: 1.453
     2060: 0.926

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2018: 100.5
     2030: 100.9
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2018: 98.97
     2030: 100.00
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 102.2
     2030: 103.8
     2060: 100.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 128.8
     2030: 115.7
     2060: 100.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 84.10
     2030: 89.29
     2060: 95.53
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2018: 11.32
     2030: 12.81
     2060: 15.87
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2018: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 0.981
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 1.917
     2030: 1.685
     2060: 1.219
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2018: 3,187
     2030: 3,350
     2060: 3,529
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 1.216
     2030: 1.067
     2060: 0.427
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 1.814
     2030: 1.941
     2060: 2.218

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 177.7
     2030: 266.7
     2060: 558.7
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 204.3
     2030: 300.9
     2060: 602.8
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 37.74
     2030: 53.08
     2060: 100.4
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2018: 0.364
     2030: 0.373
     2060: 0.360
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2018: 43.78
     2030: 37.42
     2060: 38.24
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2018: 60.54
     2030: 69.52
     2060: 75.02

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2018: 0.011
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2018: 0.009
     2030: 0.007
     2060: 0.003

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2018: 0.125
     2030: 0.142
     2060: 0.174

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2018: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2018: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2018: 9.815
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2018: 4.461
     2030: 4.611
     2060: 4.850
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2018: 8.528
     2030: 8.720
     2060: 9.073