Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.30
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2017: 4.614
     2030: 5.115
     2060: 5.818
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2017: 0.932
     2030: 0.710
     2060: 0.224
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2017: 12.85
     2030: 12.11
     2060: 10.87
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2017: 6.770
     2030: 7.922
     2060: 10.34
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2017: 3.864
     2030: 2.426
     2060: 1.101
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2017: 82.35
     2030: 84.08
     2060: 86.95
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2017: 80.56
     2030: 82.17
     2060: 84.69
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2017: 84.07
     2030: 85.92
     2060: 89.15
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2017: 1.964
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2017: 0.057
     2030: 0.046
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2017: 0.306
     2030: 0.307
     2060: 0.315
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2017: 0.923
     2030: 0.914
     2060: 0.954
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2017: 2.989
     2030: 3.148
     2060: 3.437
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2017: 0.702
     2030: 1.054
     2060: 1.427
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2017: 4.050
     2030: 4.598
     2060: 5.352
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2017: 0.536
     2030: 0.517
     2060: 0.498
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2017: 47.83
     2030: 49.52
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2017: 50.71
     2030: 55.28
     2060: 63.13
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2017: 17.28
     2030: 16.05
     2060: 15.84
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2017: 5.278
     2030: 4.490
     2060: 3.191
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2017: 5.688
     2030: 5.795
     2060: 5.549
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2017: 1.381
     2030: 1.060
     2060: 0.749

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2017: 99.03
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2017: 98.85
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 102.6
     2030: 103.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 131.1
     2030: 115.3
     2060: 100.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 81.05
     2030: 80.46
     2060: 83.12
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2017: 13.11
     2030: 14.33
     2060: 16.24
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2017: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2017: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2017: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2017: 0.980
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2017: 1.942
     2030: 1.748
     2060: 1.202
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2017: 3,155
     2030: 3,323
     2060: 3,590
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2017: 1.225
     2030: 1.057
     2060: 0.376
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2017: 1.806
     2030: 1.928
     2060: 2.167

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 167.0
     2030: 252.2
     2060: 470.4
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 194.9
     2030: 288.0
     2060: 511.2
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 36.19
     2030: 49.30
     2060: 80.86
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2017: 0.362
     2030: 0.368
     2060: 0.391
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2017: 44.28
     2030: 38.75
     2060: 38.25
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2017: 60.12
     2030: 61.65
     2060: 68.37

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2017: 0.012
     2030: 0.005
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2017: 0.009
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.003

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2017: 0.124
     2030: 0.136
     2060: 0.157

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2017: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2017: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2017: 9.623
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2017: 4.438
     2030: 4.564
     2060: 4.718
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2017: 8.212
     2030: 8.380
     2060: 8.645