Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.31
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2018: 4.744
     2030: 5.206
     2060: 5.916
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2018: 0.902
     2030: 0.689
     2060: 0.233
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 12.82
     2030: 12.05
     2060: 10.86
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 7.024
     2030: 8.086
     2060: 10.27
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2018: 3.675
     2030: 2.375
     2060: 1.069
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2018: 82.15
     2030: 83.75
     2060: 86.62
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2018: 80.38
     2030: 81.87
     2060: 84.40
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2018: 83.86
     2030: 85.57
     2060: 88.80
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2018: 1.925
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2018: 0.055
     2030: 0.046
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2018: 0.301
     2030: 0.313
     2060: 0.321
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2018: 0.934
     2030: 0.939
     2060: 0.972
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2018: 3.066
     2030: 3.211
     2060: 3.488
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2018: 0.743
     2030: 1.057
     2060: 1.457
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2018: 4.093
     2030: 4.596
     2060: 5.404
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2018: 0.535
     2030: 0.515
     2060: 0.494
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2018: 48.58
     2030: 49.76
     2060: 50.00

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2018: 51.15
     2030: 55.45
     2060: 63.36
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2018: 17.12
     2030: 16.01
     2060: 15.86
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2018: 5.192
     2030: 4.466
     2060: 3.180
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 5.816
     2030: 5.817
     2060: 5.535
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 1.331
     2030: 1.043
     2060: 0.732

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2018: 99.45
     2030: 100.1
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2018: 99.21
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 102.4
     2030: 103.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 129.6
     2030: 115.6
     2060: 100.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 81.49
     2030: 84.17
     2060: 87.84
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2018: 13.24
     2030: 14.43
     2060: 16.47
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2018: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 0.981
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 1.936
     2030: 1.740
     2060: 1.211
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2018: 3,173
     2030: 3,330
     2060: 3,598
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 1.215
     2030: 1.057
     2060: 0.394
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 1.814
     2030: 1.941
     2060: 2.180

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 179.9
     2030: 265.3
     2060: 499.7
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 203.9
     2030: 295.7
     2060: 535.0
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 37.93
     2030: 50.97
     2060: 84.47
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2018: 0.363
     2030: 0.368
     2060: 0.388
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2018: 44.40
     2030: 38.73
     2060: 38.09
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2018: 61.17
     2030: 68.35
     2060: 75.27

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2018: 0.011
     2030: 0.005
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2018: 0.009
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.003

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2018: 0.127
     2030: 0.140
     2060: 0.157

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2018: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2018: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2018: 9.777
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2018: 4.455
     2030: 4.579
     2060: 4.740
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2018: 8.231
     2030: 8.392
     2060: 8.662