Country Profile - New Zealand      IFs Version 7.24
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for New Zealand
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for New Zealand -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 4.581
     2030: 5.110
     2060: 5.781
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 0.939
     2030: 0.684
     2060: 0.228
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 12.92
     2030: 12.09
     2060: 10.89
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 6.802
     2030: 8.160
     2060: 10.33
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 3.922
     2030: 2.624
     2060: 1.275
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 82.29
     2030: 83.93
     2060: 86.83
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 80.49
     2030: 82.01
     2060: 84.65
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 84.02
     2030: 85.78
     2060: 88.98
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.975
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.058
     2030: 0.050
     2060: 0.019
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 0.304
     2030: 0.306
     2060: 0.314
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 0.917
     2030: 0.911
     2060: 0.949
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 2.967
     2030: 3.131
     2060: 3.417
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 0.696
     2030: 1.068
     2060: 1.416
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 3.973
     2030: 4.547
     2060: 5.301
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.540
     2030: 0.519
     2060: 0.502
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 47.83
     2030: 49.57
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for New Zealand -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 43.14
     2030: 46.29
     2060: 49.74
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 17.28
     2030: 16.17
     2060: 15.84
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 3.858
     2030: 3.446
     2060: 2.845
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 4.242
     2030: 4.679
     2060: 5.452
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 4.462
     2030: 3.130
     2060: 1.867

Education Forecast for New Zealand -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 99.95
     2030: 100.4
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 97.72
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 99.99
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 103.1
     2030: 104.1
     2060: 99.40
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 130.2
     2030: 112.4
     2060: 97.81
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 80.55
     2030: 81.57
     2060: 80.80
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 12.91
     2030: 13.56
     2060: 15.06
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for New Zealand
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.979
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 1.552
     2030: 1.483
     2060: 1.168
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,264
     2030: 3,398
     2060: 3,539
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 1.225
     2030: 1.035
     2060: 0.333
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 1.806
     2030: 1.927
     2060: 2.131

Economy Forecast for New Zealand
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 163.2
     2030: 234.0
     2060: 418.7
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 189.1
     2030: 265.1
     2060: 452.6
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 35.63
     2030: 45.80
     2060: 72.42
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.364
     2030: 0.379
     2060: 0.408
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 44.03
     2030: 38.12
     2060: 36.91
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 59.13
     2030: 66.97
     2060: 72.30

Energy Forecast for New Zealand
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.018
     2030: 0.026
     2060: 0.017

Environment Forecast for New Zealand
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.008
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.003

International Politics Forecast for New Zealand
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.122
     2030: 0.120
     2060: 0.129

Domestic Government Forecast for New Zealand
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 9.616
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 4.437
     2030: 4.516
     2060: 4.639
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 8.211
     2030: 8.343
     2060: 8.584