Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.37
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2018: 195.2
     2030: 261.7
     2060: 481.2
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2018: 2.495
     2030: 2.427
     2060: 1.546
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 38.34
     2030: 35.20
     2060: 22.74
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 12.87
     2030: 10.63
     2060: 7.176
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2018: 70.83
     2030: 60.58
     2060: 28.53
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2018: 53.74
     2030: 58.04
     2060: 68.28
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2018: 52.88
     2030: 56.68
     2060: 66.29
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2018: 54.63
     2030: 59.44
     2060: 70.33
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2018: 5.446
     2030: 4.801
     2060: 2.959
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2018: 1.788
     2030: 1.344
     2060: 0.343
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2018: 32.99
     2030: 40.74
     2060: 52.80
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2018: 85.17
     2030: 106.1
     2060: 152.6
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2018: 104.6
     2030: 147.5
     2060: 302.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2018: 5.413
     2030: 8.005
     2060: 25.98
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2018: 99.54
     2030: 168.1
     2060: 404.0
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2018: 0.310
     2030: 0.306
     2060: 0.190
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2018: 46.27
     2030: 48.35
     2060: 49.78

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2018: 10.29
     2030: 10.99
     2060: 13.18
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2018: 8.942
     2030: 9.288
     2060: 10.97
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2018: 23.07
     2030: 18.77
     2060: 5.288
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 23.24
     2030: 19.71
     2060: 11.21
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 7.535
     2030: 6.460
     2060: 3.894

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2018: 97.10
     2030: 103.1
     2060: 105.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2018: 65.75
     2030: 71.55
     2060: 95.51
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 56.57
     2030: 67.08
     2060: 86.46
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 58.97
     2030: 62.48
     2060: 74.68
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 10.44
     2030: 13.63
     2060: 35.43
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2018: 6.390
     2030: 6.866
     2060: 8.430
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2018: 53.22
     2030: 78.21
     2060: 99.07

Social/Human Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 32.55
     2030: 37.69
     2060: 25.87
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 58.20
     2030: 68.92
     2060: 57.01
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 0.559
     2030: 0.670
     2060: 0.821
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 36.94
     2030: 22.65
     2060: 7.752
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2018: 2,705
     2030: 2,785
     2060: 3,005
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2018: -1.627
     2030: -1.507
     2060: -0.941
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2018: -0.368
     2030: -0.252
     2060: 0.078

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 1,060
     2030: 1,508
     2060: 4,346
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 515.0
     2030: 740.8
     2060: 2,563
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 5.428
     2030: 5.764
     2060: 9.031
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2018: 0.428
     2030: 0.435
     2060: 0.438
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2018: 41.85
     2030: 42.49
     2060: 42.32
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2018: 8.619
     2030: 9.371
     2060: 22.40

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2018: 0.873
     2030: 0.813
     2060: 1.249

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2018: 0.033
     2030: 0.058
     2060: 0.173

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2018: 1.035
     2030: 1.209
     2060: 2.042

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2018: 7.038
     2030: 7.302
     2060: 8.296
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2018: 16.85
     2030: 16.34
     2060: 16.56
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2018: 2.380
     2030: 2.466
     2060: 3.091
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2018: 1.327
     2030: 1.494
     2060: 2.154
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2018: 6.350
     2030: 6.366
     2060: 6.604