Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.24
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 186.5
     2030: 261.8
     2060: 473.6
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 2.494
     2030: 2.386
     2060: 1.532
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 38.20
     2030: 34.63
     2060: 23.72
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 12.94
     2030: 10.56
     2060: 8.319
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 74.32
     2030: 59.53
     2060: 36.32
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 53.64
     2030: 58.11
     2060: 65.61
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 53.21
     2030: 56.96
     2060: 63.20
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 54.10
     2030: 59.32
     2060: 68.10
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 5.453
     2030: 4.716
     2060: 3.114
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 1.906
     2030: 1.644
     2060: 0.609
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 31.69
     2030: 40.18
     2060: 53.24
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 81.55
     2030: 104.8
     2060: 151.5
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 99.76
     2030: 149.0
     2060: 296.4
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 5.177
     2030: 8.087
     2060: 25.70
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 91.50
     2030: 168.8
     2060: 397.3
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.319
     2030: 0.353
     2060: 0.402
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 42.99
     2030: 46.01
     2060: 48.81

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 7.727
     2030: 8.979
     2060: 11.56
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 8.970
     2030: 9.821
     2060: 11.48
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 19.17
     2030: 14.52
     2060: 6.708
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 19.08
     2030: 15.04
     2060: 3.743
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 6.264
     2030: 4.598
     2060: 2.765

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 89.60
     2030: 92.26
     2060: 101.4
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 63.53
     2030: 72.10
     2060: 99.75
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 48.69
     2030: 53.91
     2060: 78.52
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 40.56
     2030: 37.33
     2060: 51.81
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 10.49
     2030: 12.97
     2060: 23.68
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 6.274
     2030: 6.433
     2060: 7.097
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 52.50
     2030: 80.21
     2060: 98.19

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 111.8
     2030: 128.9
     2060: 154.8
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 148.2
     2030: 183.2
     2060: 250.8
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.558
     2030: 0.687
     2060: 0.812
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 37.99
     2030: 22.65
     2060: 11.09
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,721
     2030: 2,884
     2060: 3,162
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -1.628
     2030: -1.460
     2060: -0.869
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.370
     2030: -0.181
     2060: 0.187

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 1,046
     2030: 1,797
     2060: 5,003
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 514.7
     2030: 951.5
     2060: 3,162
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 5.611
     2030: 6.863
     2060: 10.56
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.432
     2030: 0.451
     2060: 0.467
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 34.37
     2030: 28.15
     2060: 18.84
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 8.647
     2030: 9.284
     2060: 16.70

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 1.445
     2030: 1.803
     2060: 0.541

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.029
     2030: 0.081
     2060: 0.107

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 1.044
     2030: 1.268
     2060: 2.061

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 7.008
     2030: 7.210
     2060: 7.820
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 13.96
     2030: 13.71
     2060: 14.37
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 2.409
     2030: 2.611
     2060: 3.288
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 1.336
     2030: 1.608
     2060: 2.315
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 6.434
     2030: 6.523
     2060: 6.830