Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.08
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 177.8
     2030: 266.3
     2060: 441.7
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 2.731
     2030: 2.311
     2060: 1.017
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 40.92
     2030: 31.97
     2060: 16.44
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 13.27
     2030: 8.638
     2060: 6.182
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 78.50
     2030: 44.18
     2060: 14.64
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 53.69
     2030: 61.68
     2060: 73.17
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 52.65
     2030: 59.85
     2060: 70.40
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 54.77
     2030: 63.59
     2060: 76.02
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 5.883
     2030: 4.391
     2060: 2.042
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 1.605
     2030: 1.291
     2060: 0.423
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 36.65
     2030: 46.71
     2060: 44.35
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 78.21
     2030: 106.9
     2060: 114.5
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 94.59
     2030: 150.8
     2060: 296.8
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 5.004
     2030: 8.502
     2060: 30.43
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 91.92
     2030: 166.5
     2060: 340.6
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.316
     2030: 0.350
     2060: 0.427
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 43.69
     2030: 46.74
     2060: 49.05

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 7.871
     2030: 8.696
     2060: 11.12
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 6.754
     2030: 8.021
     2060: 10.84
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 24.39
     2030: 13.35
     2060: 5.585
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 24.58
     2030: 15.91
     2060: 4.387
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 8.197
     2030: 7.369
     2060: 4.801

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 92.01
     2030: 109.2
     2060: 100.7
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 60.54
     2030: 83.37
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 53.47
     2030: 80.21
     2060: 99.52
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 42.10
     2030: 56.97
     2060: 98.17
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 11.29
     2030: 19.18
     2060: 42.89
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 6.124
     2030: 6.786
     2060: 9.805
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 54.33
     2030: 87.67
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2014: 111.7
     2030: 110.1
     2060: 59.26
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2014: 143.2
     2030: 164.7
     2060: 125.6
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.566
     2030: 0.749
     2060: 0.916
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 37.51
     2030: 16.65
     2060: 5.403
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,750
     2030: 2,858
     2060: 3,128
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -1.604
     2030: -1.321
     2060: -0.555
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.325
     2030: -0.001
     2060: 0.682

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 1,019
     2030: 2,515
     2060: 12,604
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 508.7
     2030: 1,581
     2060: 11,173
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 5.729
     2030: 9.445
     2060: 28.53
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.499
     2030: 0.511
     2060: 0.497
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 829,029,613,568
     2030: 547,207,839,744
     2060: 303,482,437,632
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 10.13
     2030: 16.86
     2060: 42.35

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 1.410
     2030: 1.668
     2060: 0.479

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.038
     2030: 0.137
     2060: 0.178

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Power index, Global Power Index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 1.088
     2030: 1.518
     2060: 2.806

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 8.073
     2030: 8.880
     2060: 11.08
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 14.01
     2030: 13.84
     2060: 15.34
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 2.499
     2030: 3.018
     2060: 5.592
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 1.469
     2030: 1.963
     2060: 3.052
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 6.093
     2030: 6.349
     2060: 6.970