Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.00
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 175.9
     2030: 251.5
     2060: 392.4
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 2.434
     2030: 2.045
     2060: 0.875
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 36.93
     2030: 28.57
     2060: 15.68
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 12.48
     2030: 8.040
     2060: 6.856
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 74.23
     2030: 37.48
     2060: 10.41
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 54.37
     2030: 63.03
     2060: 72.83
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 53.40
     2030: 61.50
     2060: 70.64
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 55.39
     2030: 64.63
     2060: 75.10
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 5.243
     2030: 3.722
     2060: 2.014
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 1.605
     2030: 1.291
     2060: 0.423
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 34.39
     2030: 40.31
     2060: 37.64
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 76.16
     2030: 93.34
     2060: 97.09
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 94.74
     2030: 149.6
     2060: 266.2
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 5.014
     2030: 8.542
     2060: 29.17
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 90.35
     2030: 157.6
     2060: 299.3
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.323
     2030: 0.371
     2060: 0.435
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 43.96
     2030: 46.95
     2060: 49.16

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 7.891
     2030: 9.204
     2060: 11.17
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 6.483
     2030: 7.481
     2060: 9.084
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 24.24
     2030: 13.80
     2060: 5.138
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 24.93
     2030: 17.27
     2060: 6.337
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 8.166
     2030: 6.657
     2060: 4.737

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 92.01
     2030: 108.5
     2060: 100.7
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 60.65
     2030: 81.51
     2060: 100.00
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 53.13
     2030: 78.26
     2060: 98.84
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 41.68
     2030: 54.73
     2060: 90.70
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 11.29
     2030: 17.76
     2060: 32.42
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 4.455
     2030: 5.849
     2060: 9.196
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 54.21
     2030: 85.80
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 90.52
     2030: 52.99
     2060: 28.65
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 125.5
     2030: 96.02
     2060: 66.69
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.522
     2030: 0.707
     2060: 0.856
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 37.46
     2030: 17.33
     2060: 5.609
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,753
     2030: 2,920
     2060: 3,133
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -1.605
     2030: -1.348
     2060: -0.736
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.327
     2030: -0.051
     2060: 0.372

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 431.5
     2030: 1,088
     2060: 3,976
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 204.6
     2030: 623.1
     2060: 2,929
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 2.453
     2030: 4.326
     2060: 10.13
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.505
     2030: 0.525
     2060: 0.528
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 49.97
     2030: 48.90
     2060: 27.11
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 8.081
     2030: 14.03
     2060: 26.94

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 1.198
     2030: 1.846
     2060: 0.498

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.030
     2030: 0.085
     2060: 0.049

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.871
     2030: 1.172
     2060: 1.807

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 8.227
     2030: 9.678
     2060: 12.34
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 14.02
     2030: 13.92
     2060: 15.45
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 2.455
     2030: 2.727
     2060: 3.656
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 1.461
     2030: 1.874
     2060: 2.674
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 6.125
     2030: 6.453
     2060: 7.086