Country Profile - Nigeria      IFs Version 7.15
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Nigeria
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Nigeria -
Population - Million People - -
     2015: 182.7
     2030: 266.2
     2060: 435.9
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2015: 2.721
     2030: 2.292
     2060: 0.962
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2015: 40.43
     2030: 31.52
     2060: 15.78
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2015: 12.89
     2030: 8.392
     2060: 6.079
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2015: 75.76
     2030: 41.52
     2060: 13.14
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2015: 54.25
     2030: 62.13
     2060: 73.76
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2015: 53.16
     2030: 60.30
     2060: 71.02
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2015: 55.39
     2030: 64.03
     2060: 76.55
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2015: 5.819
     2030: 4.324
     2060: 1.948
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2015: 1.596
     2030: 1.291
     2060: 0.423
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2015: 37.43
     2030: 46.37
     2060: 42.24
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2015: 80.25
     2030: 106.7
     2060: 109.9
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2015: 97.26
     2030: 151.0
     2060: 295.2
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2015: 5.161
     2030: 8.519
     2060: 30.87
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2015: 95.64
     2030: 166.5
     2060: 336.8
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2015: 0.317
     2030: 0.350
     2060: 0.431
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2015: 43.95
     2030: 46.74
     2060: 49.05

Health Forecast for Nigeria -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2015: 7.948
     2030: 8.982
     2060: 11.99
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2015: 6.795
     2030: 8.110
     2060: 10.60
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2015: 23.44
     2030: 12.42
     2060: 5.321
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2015: 23.99
     2030: 15.43
     2060: 4.427
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2015: 8.104
     2030: 6.963
     2060: 3.800

Education Forecast for Nigeria -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2015: 93.18
     2030: 109.3
     2060: 100.8
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2015: 61.38
     2030: 83.59
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 55.68
     2030: 80.87
     2060: 98.46
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 42.67
     2030: 57.29
     2060: 94.11
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 11.74
     2030: 19.64
     2060: 44.62
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2015: 6.140
     2030: 6.793
     2060: 9.870
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2015: 55.80
     2030: 87.66
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Nigeria
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2015: 98.65
     2030: 75.92
     2060: 29.03
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2015: 138.1
     2030: 134.0
     2060: 72.91
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2015: 0.575
     2030: 0.755
     2060: 0.928
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2015: 36.34
     2030: 15.94
     2060: 5.192
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2015: 2,761
     2030: 2,893
     2060: 3,214
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2015: -1.593
     2030: -1.311
     2060: -0.516
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2015: -0.308
     2030: 0.018
     2060: 0.760

Economy Forecast for Nigeria
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 1,075
     2030: 2,673
     2060: 14,613
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 544.5
     2030: 1,730
     2060: 13,083
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 5.883
     2030: 10.04
     2060: 33.52
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2015: 0.445
     2030: 0.457
     2060: 0.486
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2015: 34.97
     2030: 17.20
     2060: 1.380
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2015: 10.35
     2030: 17.25
     2060: 48.53

Energy Forecast for Nigeria
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2015: 1.453
     2030: 1.663
     2060: 0.479

Environment Forecast for Nigeria
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2015: 0.043
     2030: 0.145
     2060: 0.251

International Politics Forecast for Nigeria
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2015: 1.111
     2030: 1.582
     2060: 3.512

Domestic Government Forecast for Nigeria
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2015: 8.105
     2030: 8.915
     2060: 11.18
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2015: 14.02
     2030: 13.86
     2060: 15.56
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2015: 2.525
     2030: 3.099
     2060: 6.195
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2015: 1.499
     2030: 2.013
     2060: 3.180
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2015: 6.109
     2030: 6.393
     2060: 7.073