Country Profile - Mexico      IFs Version 7.26
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Mexico
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Mexico -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 128.4
     2030: 146.0
     2060: 162.0
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 1.114
     2030: 0.700
     2060: -0.004
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 17.89
     2030: 14.34
     2060: 10.98
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 4.836
     2030: 5.968
     2060: 10.08
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 17.48
     2030: 12.29
     2060: 6.226
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 77.29
     2030: 79.07
     2060: 82.12
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 74.85
     2030: 76.39
     2060: 78.81
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 79.72
     2030: 81.73
     2060: 85.39
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 2.154
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.147
     2030: 0.110
     2060: 0.041
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 11.55
     2030: 10.37
     2060: 8.945
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 34.82
     2030: 31.99
     2060: 27.36
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 84.95
     2030: 98.55
     2060: 98.47
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 8.604
     2030: 15.41
     2060: 36.14
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 102.8
     2030: 128.4
     2060: 149.0
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.449
     2030: 0.471
     2060: 0.440
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 37.75
     2030: 41.21
     2060: 45.67

Health Forecast for Mexico -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 44.42
     2030: 47.49
     2060: 51.29
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 14.95
     2030: 15.91
     2060: 17.84
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 2.790
     2030: 2.650
     2060: 2.400
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 2.491
     2030: 0.332
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 4.566
     2030: 3.397
     2060: 2.164

Education Forecast for Mexico -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 103.0
     2030: 100.5
     2060: 99.92
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 95.83
     2030: 99.77
     2060: 99.96
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 116.2
     2030: 113.8
     2060: 114.9
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 66.08
     2030: 73.30
     2060: 102.3
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 29.83
     2030: 33.07
     2060: 51.76
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 9.482
     2030: 9.989
     2060: 11.65
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 94.39
     2030: 96.47
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Mexico
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 1.124
     2030: 1.151
     2060: 1.701
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 4.986
     2030: 4.893
     2060: 6.007
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.889
     2030: 0.915
     2060: 0.962
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 4.445
     2030: 3.307
     2060: 1.630
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,111
     2030: 3,238
     2060: 3,386
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.485
     2030: 0.520
     2060: 0.396
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.309
     2030: 0.397
     2060: 0.464

Economy Forecast for Mexico
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 2,117
     2030: 2,854
     2060: 4,360
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 1,326
     2030: 1,980
     2060: 3,716
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 16.49
     2030: 19.56
     2060: 26.92
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.483
     2030: 0.503
     2060: 0.551
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 29.95
     2030: 26.26
     2060: 25.78
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 21.20
     2030: 25.88
     2060: 51.27

Energy Forecast for Mexico
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 1.040
     2030: 0.669
     2060: 0.225

Environment Forecast for Mexico
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.129
     2030: 0.167
     2060: 0.158

International Politics Forecast for Mexico
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 1.391
     2030: 1.335
     2060: 1.271

Domestic Government Forecast for Mexico
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 10.04
     2030: 10.41
     2060: 11.49
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 18.10
     2030: 19.27
     2060: 19.97
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 3.097
     2030: 3.933
     2060: 5.653
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.719
     2030: 2.964
     2060: 3.369
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 6.797
     2030: 6.926
     2060: 7.100