Country Profile - Kenya      IFs Version 7.07
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Kenya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Kenya -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 45.19
     2030: 65.08
     2060: 98.75
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 2.507
     2030: 2.045
     2060: 0.886
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 34.89
     2030: 28.28
     2060: 15.08
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 9.681
     2030: 7.673
     2060: 6.162
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 57.41
     2030: 42.80
     2060: 9.415
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 59.23
     2030: 64.68
     2060: 76.49
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 58.05
     2030: 63.23
     2060: 73.97
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 60.43
     2030: 66.17
     2060: 79.06
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 4.435
     2030: 3.546
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 3.415
     2030: 2.644
     2060: 0.866
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 8.435
     2030: 10.21
     2060: 8.617
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 18.95
     2030: 23.73
     2060: 22.32
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 25.00
     2030: 38.88
     2060: 67.40
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 1.234
     2030: 2.465
     2060: 9.030
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 11.44
     2030: 21.80
     2060: 52.22
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.390
     2030: 0.431
     2060: 0.495
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 47.65
     2030: 49.46
     2060: 49.97

Health Forecast for Kenya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 1.770
     2030: 2.116
     2060: 4.779
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 13.61
     2030: 14.42
     2060: 16.49
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 15.49
     2030: 11.83
     2060: 3.535
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 15.18
     2030: 9.298
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 28.67
     2030: 24.52
     2060: 12.18

Education Forecast for Kenya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 114.8
     2030: 111.9
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 84.20
     2030: 94.87
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 92.91
     2030: 105.9
     2060: 121.3
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 44.80
     2030: 58.48
     2060: 99.97
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 4.707
     2030: 11.45
     2060: 45.85
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 6.875
     2030: 7.807
     2060: 10.92
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 73.84
     2030: 89.66
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Kenya
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 18.41
     2030: 21.66
     2060: 3.801
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 28.74
     2030: 36.40
     2060: 11.37
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.610
     2030: 0.709
     2060: 0.885
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 26.83
     2030: 17.18
     2060: 3.348
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,142
     2030: 2,262
     2060: 2,786
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.236
     2030: -0.294
     2060: -0.298
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.619
     2030: -0.501
     2060: -0.099

Economy Forecast for Kenya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 102.2
     2030: 197.2
     2060: 1,178
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 39.95
     2030: 84.46
     2060: 827.5
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 2.261
     2030: 3.031
     2060: 11.93
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.484
     2030: 0.484
     2060: 0.494
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 882,573,836,288
     2030: 822,592,536,576
     2060: 622,641,086,464
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 7.615
     2030: 12.48
     2060: 39.20

Energy Forecast for Kenya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Kenya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.004
     2030: 0.004
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Kenya
Power index, Global Power Index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.209
     2030: 0.258
     2060: 0.435

Domestic Government Forecast for Kenya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 9.136
     2030: 9.914
     2060: 12.70
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 18.24
     2030: 18.45
     2060: 18.19
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 2.192
     2030: 2.493
     2060: 3.931
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 2.026
     2030: 2.246
     2060: 3.097
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 6.906
     2030: 7.093
     2060: 7.840