Country Profile - Kenya      IFs Version 6.69
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Kenya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Kenya -
Population - Million People - -
     2013: 43.72
     2030: 64.90
     2060: 101.0
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2013: 2.548
     2030: 2.083
     2060: 0.806
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2013: 36.40
     2030: 28.84
     2060: 15.32
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2013: 10.05
     2030: 7.928
     2060: 7.185
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2013: 58.38
     2030: 42.31
     2060: 13.82
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2013: 58.53
     2030: 63.92
     2060: 72.43
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2013: 57.32
     2030: 62.39
     2060: 69.94
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2013: 59.74
     2030: 65.48
     2060: 74.98
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2013: 4.602
     2030: 3.631
     2060: 1.941
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2013: 3.452
     2030: 2.627
     2060: 0.860
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2013: 8.417
     2030: 10.32
     2060: 9.630
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2013: 18.48
     2030: 23.92
     2060: 25.08
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2013: 24.05
     2030: 38.64
     2060: 67.59
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2013: 1.190
     2030: 2.342
     2060: 8.338
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2013: 10.12
     2030: 19.17
     2060: 45.38
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2013: 0.453
     2030: 0.501
     2060: 0.566
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2013: 47.33
     2030: 49.42
     2060: 49.96

Health Forecast for Kenya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2013: 1.745
     2030: 2.349
     2060: 5.180
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2013: 12.96
     2030: 13.71
     2060: 15.21
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2013: 15.78
     2030: 11.60
     2060: 5.114
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2013: 15.26
     2030: 10.45
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2013: 29.45
     2030: 22.80
     2060: 7.932

Education Forecast for Kenya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2013: 113.3
     2030: 109.1
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2013: 82.48
     2030: 89.71
     2060: 99.96
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 91.00
     2030: 94.26
     2060: 115.1
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 44.55
     2030: 49.48
     2060: 81.98
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 4.515
     2030: 10.59
     2060: 27.79
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2013: 7.070
     2030: 7.661
     2060: 9.257
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2013: 87.64
     2030: 92.32
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Kenya
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2013: 8.291
     2030: 10.57
     2060: 2.493
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2013: 16.92
     2030: 21.49
     2060: 7.315
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2013: 0.631
     2030: 0.700
     2060: 0.837
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2013: 24.43
     2030: 17.01
     2060: 5.943
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2013: 2,132
     2030: 2,327
     2060: 2,844
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2013: -0.250
     2030: -0.439
     2060: -0.496
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2013: 0.166
     2030: -0.052
     2060: 0.235

Economy Forecast for Kenya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 67.91
     2030: 153.3
     2060: 762.5
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 27.28
     2030: 68.10
     2060: 497.6
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 1.553
     2030: 2.362
     2060: 7.550
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2013: 0.428
     2030: 0.460
     2060: 0.491
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2013: 36.99
     2030: 46.28
     2060: 42.67
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2013: 4.372
     2030: 9.533
     2060: 26.35

Energy Forecast for Kenya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2013: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Kenya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2013: 0.004
     2030: 0.012
     2060: 0.044

International Politics Forecast for Kenya
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2013: 0.201
     2030: 0.260
     2060: 0.434

Domestic Government Forecast for Kenya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2013: 9.145
     2030: 10.01
     2060: 12.45
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2013: 18.17
     2030: 18.50
     2060: 18.06
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2013: 2.160
     2030: 2.479
     2060: 3.423
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2013: 2.019
     2030: 2.285
     2060: 2.975
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2013: 7.143
     2030: 7.451
     2060: 8.207