Country Profile - Kenya      IFs Version 7.24
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Kenya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Kenya -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 47.15
     2030: 64.63
     2060: 99.69
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 2.468
     2030: 2.054
     2060: 0.799
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 32.87
     2030: 27.48
     2060: 14.91
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 7.994
     2030: 6.789
     2060: 6.860
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 47.83
     2030: 36.56
     2060: 16.75
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 62.93
     2030: 67.18
     2060: 74.54
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 61.01
     2030: 64.98
     2060: 71.78
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 64.86
     2030: 69.40
     2060: 77.34
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 4.138
     2030: 3.383
     2060: 1.924
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 2.919
     2030: 2.140
     2060: 0.793
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 7.222
     2030: 8.301
     2060: 7.608
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 19.57
     2030: 23.01
     2060: 23.84
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 26.21
     2030: 39.08
     2060: 66.43
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 1.367
     2030: 2.539
     2060: 9.422
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 12.31
     2030: 21.75
     2060: 53.47
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.396
     2030: 0.441
     2060: 0.491
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 47.11
     2030: 49.19
     2060: 49.95

Health Forecast for Kenya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 1.744
     2030: 2.472
     2060: 4.985
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 13.72
     2030: 14.37
     2060: 15.75
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 10.79
     2030: 8.476
     2060: 4.706
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 10.31
     2030: 8.108
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 19.69
     2030: 11.42
     2060: 4.302

Education Forecast for Kenya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 109.2
     2030: 99.75
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 85.85
     2030: 96.15
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 97.86
     2030: 91.09
     2060: 104.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 52.55
     2030: 50.00
     2060: 78.92
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 4.175
     2030: 8.565
     2060: 24.41
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 6.971
     2030: 7.728
     2060: 9.071
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 73.17
     2030: 85.79
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Kenya
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 18.24
     2030: 24.30
     2060: 17.62
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 28.56
     2030: 36.81
     2060: 32.31
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.643
     2030: 0.725
     2060: 0.851
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 23.77
     2030: 16.17
     2060: 7.253
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,247
     2030: 2,476
     2060: 2,940
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.162
     2030: -0.187
     2060: -0.297
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.457
     2030: -0.339
     2060: -0.153

Economy Forecast for Kenya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 140.4
     2030: 255.0
     2060: 779.8
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 54.73
     2030: 111.8
     2060: 447.5
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 2.977
     2030: 3.946
     2060: 7.823
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.494
     2030: 0.548
     2060: 0.567
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 31.93
     2030: 33.94
     2060: 35.92
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 6.956
     2030: 8.280
     2060: 18.46

Energy Forecast for Kenya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Kenya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.004
     2030: 0.003
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Kenya
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.222
     2030: 0.273
     2060: 0.414

Domestic Government Forecast for Kenya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 8.061
     2030: 8.505
     2060: 9.669
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 19.10
     2030: 19.18
     2060: 18.29
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 2.255
     2030: 2.536
     2060: 3.353
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.238
     2030: 2.438
     2060: 2.861
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 7.193
     2030: 7.354
     2060: 7.702