Country Profile - Kenya      IFs Version 7.00
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Kenya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Kenya -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 45.36
     2030: 65.36
     2060: 100.0
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 2.560
     2030: 2.049
     2060: 0.774
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 35.47
     2030: 28.46
     2060: 14.90
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 9.796
     2030: 7.912
     2060: 7.097
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 57.99
     2030: 45.38
     2060: 18.07
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 59.15
     2030: 64.12
     2060: 73.16
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 58.00
     2030: 62.80
     2060: 71.27
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 60.30
     2030: 65.48
     2060: 75.11
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 4.523
     2030: 3.580
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 3.415
     2030: 2.644
     2060: 0.866
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 8.582
     2030: 10.26
     2060: 9.146
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 19.11
     2030: 23.80
     2060: 23.90
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 25.02
     2030: 39.10
     2060: 67.43
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 1.234
     2030: 2.464
     2060: 8.722
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 11.29
     2030: 21.21
     2060: 50.67
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.385
     2030: 0.427
     2060: 0.485
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 47.51
     2030: 49.39
     2060: 49.96

Health Forecast for Kenya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 1.765
     2030: 2.250
     2060: 4.849
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 12.98
     2030: 13.68
     2060: 15.08
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 15.59
     2030: 12.30
     2060: 5.494
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 15.36
     2030: 11.41
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 28.71
     2030: 23.61
     2060: 11.99

Education Forecast for Kenya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 114.5
     2030: 111.3
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 83.79
     2030: 89.72
     2060: 99.95
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 92.49
     2030: 96.55
     2060: 112.4
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 44.55
     2030: 49.66
     2060: 77.09
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 4.627
     2030: 9.752
     2060: 25.84
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 7.135
     2030: 7.762
     2060: 9.395
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 73.70
     2030: 91.03
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Kenya
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 18.36
     2030: 26.76
     2060: 14.73
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 28.81
     2030: 41.13
     2060: 29.62
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.590
     2030: 0.692
     2060: 0.833
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 27.15
     2030: 18.42
     2060: 7.327
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,140
     2030: 2,300
     2060: 2,797
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.315
     2030: -0.366
     2060: -0.373
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.816
     2030: -0.663
     2060: -0.259

Economy Forecast for Kenya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 73.28
     2030: 142.7
     2060: 650.6
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 28.81
     2030: 59.54
     2060: 389.9
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 1.615
     2030: 2.183
     2060: 6.504
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.481
     2030: 0.501
     2060: 0.539
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 34.17
     2030: 44.66
     2060: 39.16
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 7.482
     2030: 11.21
     2060: 23.99

Energy Forecast for Kenya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Kenya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.004
     2030: 0.012
     2060: 0.034

International Politics Forecast for Kenya
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.206
     2030: 0.255
     2060: 0.394

Domestic Government Forecast for Kenya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 9.108
     2030: 9.622
     2060: 11.35
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 18.24
     2030: 18.40
     2060: 18.08
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 2.182
     2030: 2.444
     2060: 3.297
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 2.021
     2030: 2.214
     2060: 2.868
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 6.913
     2030: 7.115
     2060: 7.758