Country Profile - Kenya      IFs Version 7.26
  Continue    Change Country    Display Options    Map Source    Help  


Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
www.ifs.du.edu


Sign up for our monthly newsletter.

     Forecast Categories for Kenya
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Kenya -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 47.15
     2030: 64.63
     2060: 99.60
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 2.468
     2030: 2.056
     2060: 0.793
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 32.87
     2030: 27.51
     2060: 14.75
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 7.994
     2030: 6.798
     2060: 6.758
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 47.84
     2030: 36.63
     2060: 15.48
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 62.93
     2030: 67.15
     2060: 74.88
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 61.01
     2030: 64.96
     2060: 72.10
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 64.86
     2030: 69.38
     2060: 77.68
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 4.138
     2030: 3.387
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 2.919
     2030: 2.140
     2060: 0.793
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 7.222
     2030: 8.309
     2060: 7.521
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 19.57
     2030: 23.02
     2060: 23.68
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 26.21
     2030: 39.08
     2060: 66.48
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 1.367
     2030: 2.538
     2060: 9.445
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 12.31
     2030: 21.75
     2060: 53.43
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.396
     2030: 0.441
     2060: 0.492
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 47.11
     2030: 49.19
     2060: 49.95

Health Forecast for Kenya -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 1.744
     2030: 2.471
     2060: 4.892
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 13.72
     2030: 14.37
     2060: 15.77
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 10.79
     2030: 8.478
     2060: 3.489
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 10.31
     2030: 8.139
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 19.69
     2030: 11.43
     2060: 4.385

Education Forecast for Kenya -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 109.2
     2030: 99.90
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 85.83
     2030: 95.75
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 97.85
     2030: 91.31
     2060: 108.6
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 52.54
     2030: 49.58
     2060: 89.05
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 4.175
     2030: 8.533
     2060: 28.15
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 6.971
     2030: 7.717
     2060: 9.247
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 73.17
     2030: 85.75
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Kenya
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 18.22
     2030: 24.60
     2060: 17.06
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 28.56
     2030: 37.17
     2060: 31.65
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.643
     2030: 0.724
     2060: 0.854
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 23.77
     2030: 16.19
     2060: 4.631
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,247
     2030: 2,475
     2060: 2,927
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.162
     2030: -0.187
     2060: -0.295
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.457
     2030: -0.340
     2060: -0.151

Economy Forecast for Kenya
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 140.4
     2030: 254.9
     2060: 788.5
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 54.73
     2030: 111.8
     2060: 455.1
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 2.977
     2030: 3.944
     2060: 7.917
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.493
     2030: 0.546
     2060: 0.563
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 31.93
     2030: 33.95
     2060: 35.97
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 6.939
     2030: 8.206
     2060: 22.26

Energy Forecast for Kenya
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Kenya
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.004
     2030: 0.003
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Kenya
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.222
     2030: 0.272
     2060: 0.402

Domestic Government Forecast for Kenya
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 8.061
     2030: 8.495
     2060: 9.790
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 19.10
     2030: 19.18
     2060: 18.29
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 2.255
     2030: 2.536
     2060: 3.364
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.238
     2030: 2.438
     2060: 2.866
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 7.193
     2030: 7.353
     2060: 7.707