Country Profile - Japan      IFs Version 7.37
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Japan
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Japan -
Population - Million People - -
     2018: 127.2
     2030: 120.3
     2060: 96.80
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2018: -0.269
     2030: -0.612
     2060: -0.814
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 7.878
     2030: 7.293
     2060: 7.484
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 11.03
     2030: 13.83
     2060: 16.07
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2018: 1.900
     2030: 1.406
     2060: 0.682
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2018: 84.04
     2030: 85.17
     2060: 87.95
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2018: 80.60
     2030: 81.63
     2060: 84.47
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2018: 87.32
     2030: 88.52
     2060: 91.22
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2018: 1.473
     2030: 1.516
     2060: 1.653
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2018: 0.006
     2030: 0.005
     2060: 0.002
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2018: 5.204
     2030: 4.458
     2060: 3.670
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2018: 16.32
     2030: 14.27
     2060: 11.49
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2018: 75.85
     2030: 69.74
     2060: 50.08
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2018: 35.04
     2030: 36.30
     2060: 35.23
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2018: 118.2
     2030: 111.8
     2060: 89.91
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2018: 0.482
     2030: 0.437
     2060: 0.332
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2018: 43.67
     2030: 46.21
     2060: 48.94

Health Forecast for Japan -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2018: 3.144
     2030: 4.381
     2060: 7.628
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2018: 22.85
     2030: 22.11
     2060: 21.58
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2018: 3.300
     2030: 3.068
     2060: 2.532
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 2.609
     2030: 1.031
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 2.242
     2030: 1.680
     2060: 1.001

Education Forecast for Japan -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2018: 101.6
     2030: 100.4
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2018: 98.87
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 102.0
     2030: 101.4
     2060: 99.69
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 101.0
     2030: 100.2
     2060: 98.47
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 64.10
     2030: 70.38
     2060: 85.83
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2018: 11.67
     2030: 12.39
     2060: 14.00
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2018: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Japan
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 0.994
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 1.570
     2030: 1.542
     2060: 1.091
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2018: 2,726
     2030: 2,906
     2060: 3,280
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 0.742
     2030: 0.802
     2060: 0.956
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 0.388
     2030: 0.370
     2060: 0.277

Economy Forecast for Japan
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 5,060
     2030: 5,770
     2060: 8,169
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 6,396
     2030: 7,060
     2060: 9,257
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 39.78
     2030: 47.95
     2060: 84.39
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2018: 0.319
     2030: 0.310
     2060: 0.300
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2018: 40.82
     2030: 32.32
     2060: 30.77
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2018: 80.12
     2030: 88.14
     2060: 96.92

Energy Forecast for Japan
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2018: 0.001
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Japan
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2018: 0.323
     2030: 0.298
     2060: 0.239

International Politics Forecast for Japan
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2018: 3.490
     2030: 2.834
     2060: 2.283

Domestic Government Forecast for Japan
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2018: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2018: 19.95
     2030: 19.85
     2060: 19.90
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2018: 8.214
     2030: 9.150
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2018: 4.335
     2030: 4.408
     2060: 4.660
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2018: 7.494
     2030: 7.584
     2060: 7.863