Country Profile - Japan      IFs Version 7.00
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Japan
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Japan -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 127.0
     2030: 118.6
     2060: 95.23
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: -0.169
     2030: -0.616
     2060: -0.794
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 8.113
     2030: 7.208
     2060: 7.366
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 10.23
     2030: 13.81
     2060: 15.76
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 2.272
     2030: 1.566
     2060: 0.857
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 83.72
     2030: 85.42
     2060: 88.07
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 79.99
     2030: 81.50
     2060: 83.87
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 87.25
     2030: 89.06
     2060: 91.96
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 1.430
     2030: 1.497
     2060: 1.650
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 0.008
     2030: 0.006
     2060: 0.002
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 6.418
     2030: 5.229
     2060: 4.271
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 16.46
     2030: 13.78
     2060: 11.07
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 77.60
     2030: 68.52
     2060: 48.66
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 32.91
     2030: 36.30
     2060: 35.50
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 116.8
     2030: 109.1
     2060: 87.61
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.507
     2030: 0.491
     2060: 0.442
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 43.48
     2030: 46.56
     2060: 48.96

Health Forecast for Japan -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 2.846
     2030: 4.155
     2060: 7.581
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 29.29
     2030: 28.35
     2060: 27.73
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 3.137
     2030: 2.892
     2060: 2.385
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 2.332
     2030: 1.038
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 4.930
     2030: 4.262
     2060: 1.800

Education Forecast for Japan -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 101.3
     2030: 99.85
     2060: 99.87
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 99.99
     2030: 99.82
     2060: 99.82
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 102.9
     2030: 98.74
     2060: 99.65
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 102.8
     2030: 101.5
     2060: 103.6
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 60.48
     2030: 66.99
     2060: 72.04
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 11.68
     2030: 12.53
     2060: 13.85
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Japan
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.982
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 1.230
     2030: 1.105
     2060: 0.921
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,777
     2030: 2,974
     2060: 3,374
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.751
     2030: 0.845
     2060: 1.056
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.386
     2030: 0.370
     2060: 0.317

Economy Forecast for Japan
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 4,148
     2030: 4,974
     2060: 6,328
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 4,837
     2030: 5,642
     2060: 6,829
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 32.67
     2030: 41.94
     2060: 66.45
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.246
     2030: 0.241
     2060: 0.268
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 39.10
     2030: 48.43
     2060: 48.51
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 78.33
     2030: 94.31
     2060: 101.7

Energy Forecast for Japan
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.001
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Japan
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.327
     2030: 0.352
     2060: 0.263

International Politics Forecast for Japan
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 4.021
     2030: 2.882
     2060: 1.688

Domestic Government Forecast for Japan
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 13.12
     2030: 13.74
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 19.94
     2030: 19.82
     2060: 19.84
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 7.955
     2030: 8.930
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 4.045
     2030: 4.172
     2060: 4.411
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 7.706
     2030: 7.832
     2060: 8.069