Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.00
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 2.835
     2030: 3.217
     2060: 3.528
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 0.907
     2030: 0.559
     2060: 0.051
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 18.15
     2030: 14.26
     2060: 11.35
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 7.333
     2030: 7.839
     2060: 10.37
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 22.06
     2030: 16.02
     2060: 7.705
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 73.08
     2030: 75.47
     2060: 80.07
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 70.35
     2030: 72.40
     2060: 76.21
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 75.73
     2030: 78.47
     2060: 83.82
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 2.237
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 0.980
     2030: 0.788
     2060: 0.258
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 0.304
     2030: 0.278
     2060: 0.242
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 0.745
     2030: 0.723
     2060: 0.618
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 1.865
     2030: 2.108
     2060: 2.204
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 0.224
     2030: 0.386
     2060: 0.707
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 1.428
     2030: 1.573
     2060: 1.714
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.470
     2030: 0.480
     2060: 0.463
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 46.15
     2030: 48.58
     2060: 49.78

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 31.69
     2030: 32.54
     2060: 36.50
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 14.26
     2030: 14.42
     2060: 15.30
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 2.005
     2030: 2.307
     2060: 2.409
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 1.281
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 8.660
     2030: 8.228
     2060: 5.921

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 94.23
     2030: 105.4
     2060: 100.6
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 80.05
     2030: 97.39
     2060: 99.99
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 95.54
     2030: 123.5
     2060: 119.3
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 90.73
     2030: 90.73
     2060: 88.88
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 26.38
     2030: 28.98
     2060: 34.13
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 9.703
     2030: 10.17
     2060: 11.52
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 87.93
     2030: 93.39
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 0.311
     2030: 0.418
     2060: 0.657
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 0.632
     2030: 0.799
     2060: 1.079
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.803
     2030: 0.837
     2060: 0.907
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 9.120
     2030: 5.680
     2060: 2.053
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,815
     2030: 2,864
     2060: 3,066
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.087
     2030: 0.106
     2060: 0.076
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.157
     2030: 0.196
     2060: 0.242

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 22.38
     2030: 26.58
     2060: 43.34
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 11.73
     2030: 14.20
     2060: 28.00
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 7.894
     2030: 8.263
     2060: 12.28
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.449
     2030: 0.465
     2060: 0.530
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 62.69
     2030: 56.29
     2060: 40.26
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 12.28
     2030: 15.08
     2060: 23.66

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.002
     2030: 0.003
     2060: 0.002

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.023
     2030: 0.020
     2060: 0.017

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 11.02
     2030: 11.47
     2060: 12.47
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 18.72
     2030: 19.57
     2060: 19.35
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 3.317
     2030: 3.611
     2060: 4.433
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 2.701
     2030: 2.805
     2060: 3.138
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 6.840
     2030: 6.879
     2060: 7.075