Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.07
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 2.805
     2030: 2.971
     2060: 2.766
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 0.528
     2030: 0.039
     2060: -0.482
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 18.14
     2030: 13.90
     2060: 10.74
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 7.371
     2030: 8.140
     2060: 11.55
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 21.70
     2030: 15.09
     2060: 6.814
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 73.07
     2030: 75.41
     2060: 79.98
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 70.34
     2030: 72.30
     2060: 75.91
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 75.74
     2030: 78.46
     2060: 83.97
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 2.253
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 0.980
     2030: 0.788
     2060: 0.258
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 0.303
     2030: 0.255
     2060: 0.183
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 0.740
     2030: 0.673
     2060: 0.473
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 1.842
     2030: 1.925
     2060: 1.685
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 0.223
     2030: 0.373
     2060: 0.608
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 1.421
     2030: 1.490
     2060: 1.453
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.465
     2030: 0.470
     2060: 0.447
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 46.19
     2030: 48.61
     2060: 49.79

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 31.85
     2030: 32.05
     2060: 34.19
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 14.27
     2030: 14.61
     2060: 15.76
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 1.991
     2030: 2.288
     2060: 2.623
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 1.211
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 8.542
     2030: 8.536
     2060: 7.375

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 94.18
     2030: 103.1
     2060: 99.74
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 79.88
     2030: 94.83
     2060: 98.70
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 95.23
     2030: 118.0
     2060: 116.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 90.83
     2030: 86.73
     2060: 90.78
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 26.48
     2030: 29.10
     2060: 38.62
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 9.748
     2030: 10.22
     2060: 11.73
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 87.91
     2030: 93.11
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 0.289
     2030: 0.187
     2060: 0.117
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 0.597
     2030: 0.441
     2060: 0.288
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.807
     2030: 0.844
     2060: 0.920
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 9.118
     2030: 5.743
     2060: 2.308
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,824
     2030: 2,841
     2060: 2,955
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.092
     2030: 0.093
     2060: 0.017
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.176
     2030: 0.204
     2060: 0.217

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 23.55
     2030: 28.40
     2060: 43.40
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 14.90
     2030: 18.54
     2060: 34.13
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 8.397
     2030: 9.559
     2060: 15.69
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.452
     2030: 0.435
     2060: 0.453
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 1,173,609,119,7
     2030: 954,121,388,032
     2060: 672,631,226,368
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 12.23
     2030: 15.44
     2060: 26.92

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.002

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Power index, Global Power Index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.021
     2030: 0.017
     2060: 0.012

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 11.04
     2030: 11.52
     2060: 12.69
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 18.74
     2030: 19.58
     2060: 19.42
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 3.347
     2030: 3.742
     2060: 4.834
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 2.720
     2030: 2.877
     2060: 3.279
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 6.854
     2030: 6.934
     2060: 7.180