Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.26
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 2.813
     2030: 2.937
     2060: 2.704
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 0.460
     2030: 0.020
     2060: -0.520
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 16.98
     2030: 13.08
     2060: 10.08
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 6.803
     2030: 7.510
     2060: 11.61
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 14.00
     2030: 9.509
     2060: 4.155
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 76.37
     2030: 78.49
     2060: 82.26
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 73.90
     2030: 75.72
     2060: 78.78
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 78.82
     2030: 81.26
     2060: 85.71
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.992
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 1.036
     2030: 0.853
     2060: 0.316
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 0.217
     2030: 0.201
     2060: 0.140
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 0.659
     2030: 0.633
     2060: 0.437
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 1.894
     2030: 1.913
     2060: 1.558
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 0.260
     2030: 0.391
     2060: 0.709
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 1.505
     2030: 1.628
     2060: 1.655
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.475
     2030: 0.471
     2060: 0.423
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 45.45
     2030: 48.04
     2060: 49.68

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 31.74
     2030: 34.75
     2060: 40.40
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 17.96
     2030: 18.60
     2060: 20.23
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 2.510
     2030: 2.411
     2060: 2.309
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 1.595
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 7.807
     2030: 5.060
     2060: 2.607

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 98.75
     2030: 100.2
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 92.36
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 88.78
     2030: 96.87
     2060: 104.7
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 54.57
     2030: 74.14
     2060: 99.37
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 28.11
     2030: 36.58
     2060: 59.53
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 10.05
     2030: 10.66
     2060: 12.30
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 88.39
     2030: 91.46
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.022
     2030: 0.022
     2060: 0.016
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.200
     2030: 0.198
     2060: 0.118
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.828
     2030: 0.860
     2060: 0.938
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 8.378
     2030: 6.214
     2060: 1.534
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,788
     2030: 2,951
     2060: 3,222
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.089
     2030: 0.114
     2060: 0.057
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.183
     2030: 0.231
     2060: 0.247

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 24.26
     2030: 30.45
     2060: 46.97
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 14.90
     2030: 20.08
     2060: 38.20
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 8.623
     2030: 10.37
     2060: 17.37
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.458
     2030: 0.464
     2060: 0.522
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 44.06
     2030: 36.01
     2060: 29.40
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 13.13
     2030: 23.39
     2060: 54.04

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.003

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.020
     2030: 0.019
     2060: 0.016

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 11.05
     2030: 11.59
     2060: 12.82
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 19.06
     2030: 19.72
     2060: 19.59
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 3.352
     2030: 3.825
     2060: 5.020
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.662
     2030: 2.852
     2060: 3.290
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 7.341
     2030: 7.449
     2060: 7.724