Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.31
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2018: 2.913
     2030: 3.001
     2060: 2.738
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2018: 0.365
     2030: 0.001
     2060: -0.519
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 16.21
     2030: 13.17
     2060: 10.26
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2018: 7.036
     2030: 7.821
     2060: 12.15
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2018: 13.07
     2030: 9.029
     2060: 3.750
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2018: 76.30
     2030: 78.03
     2060: 81.27
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2018: 73.82
     2030: 75.27
     2060: 77.69
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2018: 78.76
     2030: 80.78
     2060: 84.82
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2018: 1.956
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2018: 1.040
     2030: 0.974
     2060: 0.434
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2018: 0.223
     2030: 0.206
     2060: 0.144
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2018: 0.659
     2030: 0.646
     2060: 0.446
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2018: 1.968
     2030: 1.950
     2060: 1.585
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2018: 0.286
     2030: 0.405
     2060: 0.707
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2018: 1.566
     2030: 1.688
     2060: 1.732
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2018: 0.488
     2030: 0.479
     2060: 0.433
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2018: 45.85
     2030: 48.02
     2060: 49.69

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2018: 37.42
     2030: 40.85
     2060: 49.76
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2018: 17.98
     2030: 18.55
     2060: 20.04
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2018: 2.440
     2030: 2.336
     2060: 2.187
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 1.449
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2018: 6.928
     2030: 4.648
     2060: 2.133

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2018: 97.84
     2030: 101.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2018: 92.19
     2030: 97.89
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 88.48
     2030: 92.90
     2060: 96.89
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 78.45
     2030: 82.60
     2060: 89.93
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2018: 28.91
     2030: 37.88
     2060: 56.33
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2018: 10.26
     2030: 10.92
     2060: 12.33
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2018: 89.11
     2030: 91.26
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.026
     2030: 0.018
     2060: 0.010
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2018: 0.281
     2030: 0.227
     2060: 0.119
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 0.830
     2030: 0.856
     2060: 0.928
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2018: 7.917
     2030: 6.366
     2060: 2.005
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2018: 2,777
     2030: 2,934
     2060: 3,295
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 0.089
     2030: 0.112
     2060: 0.056
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2018: 0.181
     2030: 0.223
     2060: 0.238

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 25.14
     2030: 30.53
     2060: 43.72
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 15.45
     2030: 20.01
     2060: 34.23
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2018: 8.631
     2030: 10.17
     2060: 15.97
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2018: 0.457
     2030: 0.457
     2060: 0.498
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2018: 44.42
     2030: 24.00
     2060: 24.83
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2018: 14.54
     2030: 19.87
     2060: 38.78

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2018: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2018: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.002

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2018: 0.020
     2030: 0.019
     2060: 0.016

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2018: 11.11
     2030: 11.59
     2060: 12.65
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2018: 19.17
     2030: 19.73
     2060: 19.56
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2018: 3.388
     2030: 3.797
     2060: 4.837
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2018: 2.680
     2030: 2.845
     2060: 3.239
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2018: 7.352
     2030: 7.448
     2060: 7.687