Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.15
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2015: 2.821
     2030: 2.970
     2060: 2.765
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2015: 0.508
     2030: 0.039
     2060: -0.478
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2015: 18.07
     2030: 13.91
     2060: 10.74
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2015: 7.424
     2030: 8.139
     2060: 11.56
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2015: 21.18
     2030: 15.01
     2060: 6.775
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2015: 73.14
     2030: 75.42
     2060: 79.98
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2015: 70.39
     2030: 72.31
     2060: 75.91
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2015: 75.82
     2030: 78.47
     2060: 83.98
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2015: 2.232
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2015: 0.974
     2030: 0.788
     2060: 0.258
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2015: 0.302
     2030: 0.254
     2060: 0.183
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2015: 0.731
     2030: 0.672
     2060: 0.473
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2015: 1.863
     2030: 1.926
     2060: 1.684
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2015: 0.227
     2030: 0.373
     2060: 0.608
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2015: 1.427
     2030: 1.490
     2060: 1.453
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2015: 0.468
     2030: 0.470
     2060: 0.447
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2015: 46.42
     2030: 48.61
     2060: 49.79

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2015: 31.96
     2030: 32.33
     2060: 34.90
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2015: 14.30
     2030: 14.62
     2060: 15.78
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2015: 2.003
     2030: 2.264
     2060: 2.559
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2015: 0.860
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2015: 8.466
     2030: 8.339
     2060: 6.889

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2015: 95.53
     2030: 103.3
     2060: 99.64
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2015: 80.78
     2030: 95.03
     2060: 98.62
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 96.62
     2030: 118.3
     2060: 115.4
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 89.81
     2030: 87.17
     2060: 90.39
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 26.77
     2030: 29.21
     2060: 38.52
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2015: 9.768
     2030: 10.23
     2060: 11.73
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2015: 88.11
     2030: 93.11
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2015: 0.321
     2030: 0.226
     2060: 0.159
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2015: 0.651
     2030: 0.504
     2060: 0.349
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2015: 0.808
     2030: 0.845
     2060: 0.921
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2015: 9.003
     2030: 5.732
     2060: 2.288
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2015: 2,831
     2030: 2,856
     2060: 2,992
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2015: 0.095
     2030: 0.095
     2060: 0.020
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2015: 0.182
     2030: 0.207
     2060: 0.223

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 23.97
     2030: 28.65
     2060: 43.87
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 15.16
     2030: 18.79
     2060: 34.69
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 8.496
     2030: 9.646
     2060: 15.87
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2015: 0.450
     2030: 0.444
     2060: 0.486
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2015: 48.39
     2030: 33.44
     2060: 17.36
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2015: 12.45
     2030: 15.49
     2060: 26.84

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2015: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.002

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2015: 0.021
     2030: 0.017
     2060: 0.013

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2015: 11.06
     2030: 11.53
     2060: 12.69
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2015: 18.71
     2030: 19.58
     2060: 19.43
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2015: 3.364
     2030: 3.752
     2060: 4.855
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2015: 2.729
     2030: 2.883
     2060: 3.286
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2015: 6.859
     2030: 6.939
     2060: 7.186