Country Profile - Jamaica      IFs Version 7.30
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Jamaica
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Jamaica -
Population - Million People - -
     2017: 2.822
     2030: 2.940
     2060: 2.713
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2017: 0.439
     2030: 0.044
     2060: -0.520
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2017: 16.82
     2030: 13.32
     2060: 10.21
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2017: 6.852
     2030: 7.512
     2060: 11.78
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2017: 13.93
     2030: 9.353
     2060: 3.858
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2017: 76.23
     2030: 78.16
     2060: 81.50
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2017: 73.77
     2030: 75.40
     2060: 77.94
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2017: 78.67
     2030: 80.91
     2060: 85.03
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2017: 1.972
     2030: 1.900
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2017: 1.059
     2030: 1.001
     2060: 0.447
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2017: 0.217
     2030: 0.205
     2060: 0.143
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2017: 0.661
     2030: 0.641
     2060: 0.443
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2017: 1.901
     2030: 1.918
     2060: 1.581
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2017: 0.261
     2030: 0.380
     2060: 0.689
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2017: 1.514
     2030: 1.631
     2060: 1.666
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2017: 0.473
     2030: 0.470
     2060: 0.426
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2017: 45.45
     2030: 47.92
     2060: 49.66

Health Forecast for Jamaica -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2017: 37.06
     2030: 40.72
     2060: 49.63
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2017: 17.96
     2030: 18.55
     2060: 20.06
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2017: 2.452
     2030: 2.346
     2060: 2.194
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2017: 1.828
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2017: 7.292
     2030: 4.723
     2060: 2.166

Education Forecast for Jamaica -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2017: 97.46
     2030: 100.9
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2017: 91.62
     2030: 97.87
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 88.08
     2030: 92.89
     2060: 97.25
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 76.97
     2030: 82.60
     2060: 90.75
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 27.69
     2030: 36.86
     2060: 55.00
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2017: 10.20
     2030: 10.98
     2060: 12.50
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2017: 88.37
     2030: 90.87
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Jamaica
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2017: 0.018
     2030: 0.015
     2060: 0.011
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2017: 0.189
     2030: 0.173
     2060: 0.104
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2017: 0.828
     2030: 0.856
     2060: 0.930
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2017: 8.406
     2030: 6.610
     2060: 1.982
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2017: 2,761
     2030: 2,929
     2060: 3,290
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2017: 0.091
     2030: 0.116
     2060: 0.059
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2017: 0.188
     2030: 0.233
     2060: 0.241

Economy Forecast for Jamaica
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 24.54
     2030: 30.14
     2060: 43.94
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 15.08
     2030: 19.73
     2060: 34.52
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 8.694
     2030: 10.25
     2060: 16.19
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2017: 0.458
     2030: 0.458
     2060: 0.511
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2017: 44.03
     2030: 24.26
     2060: 25.45
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2017: 14.08
     2030: 23.31
     2060: 46.49

Energy Forecast for Jamaica
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2017: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Jamaica
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2017: 0.002
     2030: 0.002
     2060: 0.003

International Politics Forecast for Jamaica
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2017: 0.020
     2030: 0.019
     2060: 0.017

Domestic Government Forecast for Jamaica
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2017: 11.06
     2030: 11.61
     2060: 12.73
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2017: 19.06
     2030: 19.72
     2060: 19.57
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2017: 3.354
     2030: 3.787
     2060: 4.861
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2017: 2.663
     2030: 2.838
     2060: 3.240
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2017: 7.341
     2030: 7.440
     2060: 7.682