Country Profile - Hong Kong      IFs Version 7.08
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Hong Kong
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Hong Kong -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 7.240
     2030: 7.587
     2060: 6.644
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 0.645
     2030: 0.003
     2060: -0.783
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 8.945
     2030: 6.116
     2060: 6.818
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 6.970
     2030: 9.931
     2060: 17.44
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 1.685
     2030: 1.221
     2060: 0.777
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 83.02
     2030: 84.15
     2060: 85.52
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 79.95
     2030: 80.97
     2060: 82.13
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 85.72
     2030: 86.89
     2060: 88.46
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 1.128
     2030: 1.249
     2060: 1.496
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 0.010
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.003
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 0.368
     2030: 0.299
     2060: 0.279
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 0.847
     2030: 0.856
     2060: 0.743
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 5.341
     2030: 4.708
     2060: 3.501
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 1.052
     2030: 2.023
     2060: 2.400
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 7.204
     2030: 7.548
     2060: 6.644
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.517
     2030: 0.442
     2060: 0.376
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 47.92
     2030: 49.59
     2060: 49.98

Health Forecast for Hong Kong -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 30.12
     2030: 30.77
     2060: 28.59
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 18.17
     2030: 17.88
     2060: 17.91
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.149

Education Forecast for Hong Kong -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 115.7
     2030: 104.2
     2060: 99.72
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 96.77
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 99.46
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 102.3
     2030: 114.8
     2060: 110.5
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 75.35
     2030: 94.09
     2060: 98.85
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 62.61
     2030: 71.64
     2060: 74.57
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 10.35
     2030: 11.05
     2060: 13.49
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Hong Kong
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 1.000
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.766
     2030: 0.652
     2060: 0.499
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 3,632
     2030: 3,665
     2060: 3,541
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 0.509
     2030: 0.635
     2060: 0.900
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: 1.224
     2030: 1.252
     2060: 1.108

Economy Forecast for Hong Kong
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 377.9
     2030: 532.2
     2060: 601.5
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 269.2
     2030: 398.3
     2060: 497.7
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2014: 52.20
     2030: 70.14
     2060: 90.53
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.434
     2030: 0.410
     2060: 0.400
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 1,940,685,455,3
     2030: 1,964,223,889,4
     2060: 1,661,688,217,6
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 31.73
     2030: 46.95
     2060: 65.60

Energy Forecast for Hong Kong
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Hong Kong
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.011
     2030: 0.014
     2060: 0.006

International Politics Forecast for Hong Kong
Power index, Global Power Index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.313
     2030: 0.278
     2060: 0.121

Domestic Government Forecast for Hong Kong
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 9.079
     2030: 9.560
     2060: 10.70
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 19.41
     2030: 19.48
     2060: 19.60
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 8.983
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 4.246
     2030: 4.417
     2060: 4.556
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 9.010
     2030: 9.183
     2060: 9.333