Country Profile - Hong Kong      IFs Version 7.30
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Hong Kong
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Hong Kong -
Population - Million People - -
     2017: 7.402
     2030: 7.846
     2060: 7.267
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2017: 0.757
     2030: 0.171
     2060: -0.616
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2017: 10.04
     2030: 7.003
     2060: 7.527
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2017: 6.497
     2030: 9.140
     2060: 16.31
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2017: 1.686
     2030: 1.332
     2060: 0.896
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2017: 84.44
     2030: 85.14
     2060: 86.19
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2017: 81.34
     2030: 81.94
     2060: 82.78
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2017: 87.17
     2030: 87.93
     2060: 89.16
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2017: 1.306
     2030: 1.374
     2060: 1.562
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2017: 0.010
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.003
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2017: 0.384
     2030: 0.294
     2060: 0.284
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2017: 0.906
     2030: 1.024
     2060: 0.911
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2017: 5.343
     2030: 4.801
     2060: 3.829
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2017: 1.153
     2030: 2.021
     2060: 2.528
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2017: 7.363
     2030: 7.712
     2060: 7.205
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2017: 0.507
     2030: 0.437
     2060: 0.379
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2017: 47.34
     2030: 49.25
     2060: 49.96

Health Forecast for Hong Kong -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2017: 25.66
     2030: 27.66
     2060: 30.50
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2017: 16.99
     2030: 16.88
     2060: 16.86
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2017: 3.168
     2030: 2.808
     2060: 2.439
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2017: 3.137
     2030: 0.627
     2060: 0.315
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2017: 1.943
     2030: 1.461
     2060: 1.030

Education Forecast for Hong Kong -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2017: 96.12
     2030: 101.4
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2017: 92.87
     2030: 99.96
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 103.6
     2030: 107.4
     2060: 99.66
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 97.15
     2030: 101.9
     2060: 98.09
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2017: 69.96
     2030: 84.39
     2060: 96.59
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2017: 10.99
     2030: 12.05
     2060: 14.53
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2017: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Hong Kong
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2017: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2017: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2017: 1.000
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2017: 1.157
     2030: 1.037
     2060: 0.950
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2017: 3,315
     2030: 3,439
     2060: 3,607
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2017: 0.508
     2030: 0.597
     2060: 0.835
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2017: 1.272
     2030: 1.291
     2060: 1.053

Economy Forecast for Hong Kong
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 398.1
     2030: 484.0
     2060: 506.2
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 283.0
     2030: 357.9
     2060: 412.7
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2017: 53.79
     2030: 61.69
     2060: 69.66
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2017: 0.373
     2030: 0.374
     2060: 0.401
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2017: 64.43
     2030: 54.08
     2060: 47.59
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2017: 32.09
     2030: 45.53
     2060: 68.48

Energy Forecast for Hong Kong
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2017: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Hong Kong
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2017: 0.013
     2030: 0.012
     2060: 0.007

International Politics Forecast for Hong Kong
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2017: 0.308
     2030: 0.279
     2060: 0.163

Domestic Government Forecast for Hong Kong
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2017: 2.339
     2030: 2.460
     2060: 2.732
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2017: 19.59
     2030: 19.63
     2060: 19.71
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2017: 8.510
     2030: 9.793
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2017: 4.341
     2030: 4.407
     2060: 4.442
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2017: 8.975
     2030: 9.055
     2060: 9.127