Country Profile - Hong Kong      IFs Version 7.15
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Hong Kong
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Hong Kong -
Population - Million People - -
     2015: 7.284
     2030: 7.586
     2060: 6.630
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2015: 0.593
     2030: 0.001
     2060: -0.779
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2015: 8.740
     2030: 6.171
     2060: 6.857
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2015: 7.119
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 17.51
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2015: 1.636
     2030: 1.242
     2060: 0.808
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2015: 83.12
     2030: 84.06
     2060: 85.33
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2015: 80.05
     2030: 80.85
     2060: 81.90
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2015: 85.82
     2030: 86.82
     2060: 88.29
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2015: 1.134
     2030: 1.249
     2060: 1.496
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2015: 0.010
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.003
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2015: 0.382
     2030: 0.301
     2060: 0.280
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2015: 0.853
     2030: 0.859
     2060: 0.744
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2015: 5.336
     2030: 4.708
     2060: 3.504
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2015: 1.095
     2030: 2.020
     2060: 2.382
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2015: 7.240
     2030: 7.547
     2060: 6.630
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2015: 0.515
     2030: 0.442
     2060: 0.377
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2015: 48.12
     2030: 49.59
     2060: 49.98

Health Forecast for Hong Kong -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2015: 30.22
     2030: 29.99
     2060: 28.16
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2015: 18.16
     2030: 17.87
     2060: 17.91
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.302

Education Forecast for Hong Kong -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2015: 102.7
     2030: 100.3
     2060: 99.66
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2015: 98.27
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 99.29
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 103.6
     2030: 99.70
     2060: 103.5
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 80.46
     2030: 82.70
     2060: 95.28
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2015: 63.78
     2030: 73.66
     2060: 76.40
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2015: 10.47
     2030: 11.30
     2060: 13.47
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2015: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Hong Kong
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2015: 1.000
     2030: 1.000
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2015: 0.755
     2030: 0.640
     2060: 0.507
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2015: 3,637
     2030: 3,621
     2060: 3,516
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2015: 0.518
     2030: 0.632
     2060: 0.886
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2015: 1.229
     2030: 1.246
     2060: 1.080

Economy Forecast for Hong Kong
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 391.7
     2030: 495.0
     2060: 533.0
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 279.8
     2030: 370.6
     2060: 441.1
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2015: 53.78
     2030: 65.25
     2060: 80.39
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2015: 0.436
     2030: 0.417
     2060: 0.423
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2015: 48.10
     2030: 48.67
     2060: 42.44
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2015: 33.64
     2030: 48.31
     2060: 67.43

Energy Forecast for Hong Kong
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2015: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Hong Kong
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2015: 0.011
     2030: 0.013
     2060: 0.005

International Politics Forecast for Hong Kong
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2015: 0.319
     2030: 0.260
     2060: 0.115

Domestic Government Forecast for Hong Kong
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2015: 9.134
     2030: 9.574
     2060: 10.60
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2015: 19.42
     2030: 19.48
     2060: 19.60
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2015: 9.192
     2030: 10.00
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2015: 4.264
     2030: 4.373
     2060: 4.484
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2015: 9.027
     2030: 9.141
     2060: 9.264