Country Profile - United Kingdom      IFs Version 7.15
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for United Kingdom
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for United Kingdom -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 64.11
     2030: 67.77
     2060: 72.11
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 0.525
     2030: 0.329
     2060: 0.087
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 12.06
     2030: 10.98
     2060: 10.59
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 9.654
     2030: 10.19
     2060: 11.43
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 3.966
     2030: 2.555
     2060: 1.127
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 80.77
     2030: 82.64
     2060: 85.88
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 78.56
     2030: 80.34
     2060: 83.35
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 82.91
     2030: 84.89
     2060: 88.37
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.898
     2030: 1.887
     2060: 1.892
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.122
     2030: 0.099
     2060: 0.033
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 4.620
     2030: 4.457
     2060: 4.590
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 11.42
     2030: 11.47
     2060: 11.70
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 40.94
     2030: 41.56
     2060: 41.83
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 11.75
     2030: 14.75
     2060: 18.58
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 52.57
     2030: 58.11
     2060: 64.22
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.507
     2030: 0.494
     2060: 0.471
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 47.45
     2030: 49.13
     2060: 49.91

Health Forecast for United Kingdom -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 33.23
     2030: 33.09
     2060: 33.56
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 22.96
     2030: 22.48
     2060: 22.21
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 1.938
     2030: 2.059
     2060: 2.236
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 2.084
     2030: 2.586
     2060: 2.531
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 4.337
     2030: 4.134
     2060: 2.451

Education Forecast for United Kingdom -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 106.3
     2030: 100.2
     2060: 99.25
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 99.76
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 99.43
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 109.4
     2030: 102.0
     2060: 98.45
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 100.4
     2030: 101.5
     2060: 101.9
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 60.82
     2030: 65.38
     2060: 66.12
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 10.05
     2030: 11.54
     2060: 14.04
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for United Kingdom
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.472
     2030: 0.286
     2060: 0.164
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.642
     2030: 0.396
     2060: 0.227
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.973
     2030: 0.995
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 1.111
     2030: 1.004
     2060: 1.003
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,444
     2030: 3,436
     2060: 3,461
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 1.101
     2030: 0.962
     2060: 0.291
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 1.235
     2030: 1.280
     2060: 1.312

Economy Forecast for United Kingdom
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 2,414
     2030: 3,129
     2060: 5,373
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 2,678
     2030: 3,415
     2060: 5,668
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 37.65
     2030: 46.16
     2060: 74.51
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.375
     2030: 0.375
     2060: 0.401
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 47.17
     2030: 47.78
     2060: 45.63
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 60.07
     2030: 70.50
     2060: 74.01

Energy Forecast for United Kingdom
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.283
     2030: 0.092
     2060: 0.007

Environment Forecast for United Kingdom
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.140
     2030: 0.149
     2060: 0.116

International Politics Forecast for United Kingdom
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 2.246
     2030: 1.822
     2060: 1.237

Domestic Government Forecast for United Kingdom
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 14.00
     2030: 14.00
     2060: 14.00
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 20.00
     2030: 20.00
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 7.945
     2030: 9.044
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 4.095
     2030: 4.207
     2060: 4.466
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 7.847
     2030: 7.956
     2060: 8.205