Country Profile - Ethiopia      IFs Version 6.69
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Ethiopia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Ethiopia -
Population - Million People - -
     2013: 88.26
     2030: 127.1
     2060: 188.8
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2013: 2.188
     2030: 1.894
     2060: 0.763
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2013: 31.58
     2030: 25.93
     2060: 14.54
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2013: 9.500
     2030: 6.916
     2060: 6.840
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2013: 62.98
     2030: 30.92
     2060: 5.365
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2013: 60.20
     2030: 67.20
     2060: 74.98
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2013: 58.55
     2030: 65.56
     2060: 72.86
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2013: 61.85
     2030: 68.86
     2060: 77.13
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2013: 4.062
     2030: 3.197
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2013: 1.171
     2030: 0.937
     2060: 0.307
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2013: 14.45
     2030: 18.97
     2060: 16.90
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2013: 34.76
     2030: 44.45
     2060: 43.85
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2013: 50.38
     2030: 77.29
     2060: 127.2
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2013: 3.116
     2030: 5.384
     2060: 17.74
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2013: 16.40
     2030: 31.12
     2060: 75.04
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2013: 0.480
     2030: 0.520
     2060: 0.578
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2013: 47.91
     2030: 49.67
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for Ethiopia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2013: 0.206
     2030: 0.874
     2060: 3.280
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2013: 3.312
     2030: 4.126
     2060: 5.986
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2013: 32.51
     2030: 19.75
     2060: 5.482
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2013: 33.58
     2030: 21.69
     2060: 5.817
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2013: 38.96
     2030: 24.99
     2060: 5.239

Education Forecast for Ethiopia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2013: 108.5
     2030: 136.1
     2060: 104.2
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2013: 79.84
     2030: 90.05
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 45.49
     2030: 84.08
     2060: 103.7
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 15.75
     2030: 40.24
     2060: 99.84
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 3.995
     2030: 11.42
     2060: 36.29
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2013: 2.393
     2030: 3.188
     2060: 6.344
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2013: 33.32
     2030: 79.09
     2060: 98.97

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Ethiopia
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2013: 27.03
     2030: 21.76
     2060: 0.088
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2013: 57.86
     2030: 54.36
     2060: 0.993
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2013: 0.432
     2030: 0.666
     2060: 0.861
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2013: 50.47
     2030: 22.95
     2060: 6.296
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2013: 2,131
     2030: 2,419
     2060: 3,004
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2013: -0.270
     2030: -0.471
     2060: -0.348
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2013: 0.156
     2030: -0.170
     2060: 0.602

Economy Forecast for Ethiopia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 83.80
     2030: 261.1
     2060: 1,808
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 23.78
     2030: 98.19
     2060: 1,250
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 0.950
     2030: 2.054
     2060: 9.577
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2013: 0.310
     2030: 0.363
     2060: 0.371
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2013: 44.85
     2030: 48.06
     2060: 50.95
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2013: 4.737
     2030: 11.32
     2060: 36.03

Energy Forecast for Ethiopia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2013: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for Ethiopia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2013: 0.003
     2030: 0.017
     2060: 0.070

International Politics Forecast for Ethiopia
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2013: 0.364
     2030: 0.480
     2060: 0.828

Domestic Government Forecast for Ethiopia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2013: 4.083
     2030: 4.958
     2060: 6.784
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2013: 11.06
     2030: 12.79
     2060: 15.60
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2013: 2.715
     2030: 3.168
     2060: 4.539
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2013: 2.169
     2030: 2.577
     2060: 3.391
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2013: 5.754
     2030: 6.261
     2060: 7.223