Country Profile - Ethiopia      IFs Version 7.15
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Ethiopia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Ethiopia -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 100.8
     2030: 143.0
     2060: 232.1
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 2.603
     2030: 2.262
     2060: 0.997
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 35.15
     2030: 29.82
     2060: 15.65
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 9.005
     2030: 7.118
     2060: 5.636
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 52.12
     2030: 33.90
     2060: 4.735
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 61.33
     2030: 65.83
     2060: 76.37
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 59.61
     2030: 63.96
     2060: 73.19
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 63.05
     2030: 67.73
     2060: 79.60
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 4.665
     2030: 3.811
     2060: 1.966
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 1.095
     2030: 0.893
     2060: 0.292
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 17.87
     2030: 24.05
     2060: 22.52
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 41.28
     2030: 55.09
     2060: 58.13
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 56.02
     2030: 82.72
     2060: 155.5
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 3.508
     2030: 5.195
     2060: 18.40
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 18.44
     2030: 31.39
     2060: 79.57
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.503
     2030: 0.530
     2060: 0.616
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 48.41
     2030: 49.64
     2060: 49.98

Health Forecast for Ethiopia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 0.331
     2030: 0.817
     2060: 3.332
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 4.794
     2030: 5.497
     2060: 8.081
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 24.33
     2030: 16.64
     2060: 3.519
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 26.29
     2030: 16.33
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 35.49
     2030: 27.21
     2060: 9.847

Education Forecast for Ethiopia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 108.7
     2030: 111.4
     2060: 101.7
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 81.60
     2030: 92.09
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 52.22
     2030: 81.78
     2060: 101.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 14.58
     2030: 39.31
     2060: 105.3
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 6.590
     2030: 12.40
     2060: 32.01
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 2.794
     2030: 3.032
     2060: 4.587
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 46.59
     2030: 79.42
     2060: 98.45

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Ethiopia
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 25.21
     2030: 11.24
     2060: 0.032
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 58.96
     2030: 39.42
     2060: 0.490
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.503
     2030: 0.673
     2060: 0.896
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 40.98
     2030: 21.43
     2060: 2.590
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,198
     2030: 2,399
     2060: 3,014
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.112
     2030: -0.141
     2060: -0.103
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.949
     2030: -0.694
     2060: 0.024

Economy Forecast for Ethiopia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 138.9
     2030: 374.1
     2060: 3,737
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 46.66
     2030: 159.2
     2060: 2,854
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 1.378
     2030: 2.616
     2060: 16.10
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.356
     2030: 0.383
     2060: 0.403
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 32.77
     2030: 30.51
     2060: 28.61
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.873
     2030: 7.739
     2060: 23.31

Energy Forecast for Ethiopia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Ethiopia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.001
     2030: 0.001
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Ethiopia
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.405
     2030: 0.536
     2060: 1.105

Domestic Government Forecast for Ethiopia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 4.106
     2030: 4.602
     2060: 5.938
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 7.274
     2030: 8.581
     2060: 12.02
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 2.743
     2030: 3.068
     2060: 5.186
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.205
     2030: 2.544
     2060: 3.529
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 5.788
     2030: 6.143
     2060: 7.138