Country Profile - Ethiopia      IFs Version 7.26
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Ethiopia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Ethiopia -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 101.6
     2030: 140.4
     2060: 221.0
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 2.343
     2030: 2.156
     2060: 0.880
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 30.82
     2030: 28.04
     2060: 14.73
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 7.272
     2030: 6.395
     2060: 5.883
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 45.15
     2030: 32.55
     2060: 9.606
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 65.04
     2030: 68.46
     2060: 77.23
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 63.11
     2030: 66.45
     2060: 74.62
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 66.96
     2030: 70.49
     2060: 79.89
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 4.080
     2030: 3.450
     2060: 1.916
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.684
     2030: 0.465
     2060: 0.172
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 14.67
     2030: 18.59
     2060: 16.82
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 41.31
     2030: 50.11
     2060: 52.56
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 56.66
     2030: 84.62
     2060: 148.0
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 3.604
     2030: 5.679
     2060: 20.41
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 20.32
     2030: 39.12
     2060: 112.4
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.499
     2030: 0.548
     2060: 0.612
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 47.88
     2030: 49.60
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for Ethiopia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 0.217
     2030: 0.761
     2060: 2.548
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 4.790
     2030: 5.529
     2060: 6.950
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 23.94
     2030: 17.07
     2060: 3.906
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 24.34
     2030: 17.51
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 30.28
     2030: 15.98
     2060: 5.367

Education Forecast for Ethiopia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 102.8
     2030: 105.7
     2060: 102.8
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 83.99
     2030: 92.59
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 43.79
     2030: 67.13
     2060: 100.6
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 13.59
     2030: 26.44
     2060: 97.40
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 8.283
     2030: 11.90
     2060: 35.48
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 3.331
     2030: 3.484
     2060: 5.959
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 40.57
     2030: 72.58
     2060: 96.40

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Ethiopia
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 28.37
     2030: 24.07
     2060: 8.876
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 61.83
     2030: 59.70
     2060: 29.07
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.509
     2030: 0.660
     2060: 0.842
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 43.70
     2030: 24.01
     2060: 3.383
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,176
     2030: 2,419
     2060: 2,900
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.105
     2030: -0.155
     2060: -0.267
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.852
     2030: -0.675
     2060: -0.348

Economy Forecast for Ethiopia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 155.4
     2030: 334.7
     2060: 1,395
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 47.80
     2030: 121.8
     2060: 746.9
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 1.529
     2030: 2.383
     2060: 6.311
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.338
     2030: 0.380
     2060: 0.451
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 34.21
     2030: 36.12
     2060: 35.58
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 6.712
     2030: 8.285
     2060: 30.35

Energy Forecast for Ethiopia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Ethiopia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.002
     2030: 0.003
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Ethiopia
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.409
     2030: 0.516
     2060: 0.804

Domestic Government Forecast for Ethiopia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 4.092
     2030: 4.443
     2060: 5.767
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 7.140
     2030: 8.429
     2060: 11.50
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 2.717
     2030: 2.983
     2060: 3.871
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.062
     2030: 2.311
     2060: 2.773
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 5.715
     2030: 5.965
     2060: 6.459