Country Profile - Ethiopia      IFs Version 7.00
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Ethiopia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Ethiopia -
Population - Million People - -
     2014: 94.16
     2030: 132.0
     2060: 191.7
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2014: 2.062
     2030: 1.912
     2060: 0.781
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 29.28
     2030: 25.53
     2060: 14.58
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2014: 8.591
     2030: 6.355
     2060: 6.739
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2014: 52.65
     2030: 24.80
     2060: 5.158
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2014: 61.45
     2030: 68.37
     2060: 76.03
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2014: 59.64
     2030: 66.22
     2060: 73.01
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2014: 63.26
     2030: 70.55
     2060: 79.07
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2014: 3.898
     2030: 3.037
     2060: 1.900
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2014: 1.110
     2030: 0.893
     2060: 0.292
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2014: 15.32
     2030: 19.49
     2060: 16.38
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2014: 38.46
     2030: 45.32
     2060: 41.64
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2014: 52.38
     2030: 81.29
     2060: 131.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2014: 3.318
     2030: 5.369
     2060: 18.51
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2014: 15.94
     2030: 27.31
     2060: 61.42
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2014: 0.503
     2030: 0.566
     2060: 0.632
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2014: 48.19
     2030: 49.70
     2060: 49.99

Health Forecast for Ethiopia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2014: 0.247
     2030: 0.895
     2060: 3.725
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2014: 3.362
     2030: 4.141
     2060: 6.302
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2014: 26.32
     2030: 14.67
     2060: 3.856
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 27.00
     2030: 16.64
     2060: 0.931
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2014: 37.31
     2030: 26.42
     2060: 8.476

Education Forecast for Ethiopia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2014: 102.5
     2030: 102.7
     2060: 101.3
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2014: 78.69
     2030: 89.18
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 48.76
     2030: 76.73
     2060: 97.64
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 17.57
     2030: 31.43
     2060: 66.69
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2014: 8.142
     2030: 15.68
     2060: 34.38
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2014: 2.585
     2030: 3.680
     2060: 6.295
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2014: 43.00
     2030: 79.08
     2060: 97.09

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Ethiopia
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 23.69
     2030: 21.54
     2060: 0.012
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2014: 55.86
     2030: 57.41
     2060: 0.265
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 0.475
     2030: 0.673
     2060: 0.873
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2014: 43.52
     2030: 20.01
     2060: 3.808
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2014: 2,154
     2030: 2,426
     2060: 3,087
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -0.111
     2030: -0.146
     2060: -0.129
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2014: -1.095
     2030: -0.791
     2060: -0.130

Economy Forecast for Ethiopia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 96.56
     2030: 274.6
     2060: 2,264
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 26.59
     2030: 99.75
     2060: 1,538
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2014: 1.025
     2030: 2.080
     2060: 11.81
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2014: 0.348
     2030: 0.383
     2060: 0.373
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2014: 45.45
     2030: 48.85
     2060: 53.06
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2014: 7.668
     2030: 13.76
     2060: 31.09

Energy Forecast for Ethiopia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2014: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Ethiopia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2014: 0.001
     2030: 0.004
     2060: 0.001

International Politics Forecast for Ethiopia
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2014: 0.386
     2030: 0.500
     2060: 0.938

Domestic Government Forecast for Ethiopia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2014: 4.134
     2030: 4.966
     2060: 6.808
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2014: 7.191
     2030: 8.752
     2060: 12.41
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2014: 2.719
     2030: 3.064
     2060: 4.777
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2014: 2.139
     2030: 2.496
     2060: 3.377
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2014: 5.728
     2030: 6.132
     2060: 7.083