Country Profile - Eritrea      IFs Version 7.26
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Eritrea
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Eritrea -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 5.392
     2030: 7.518
     2060: 12.19
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 2.595
     2030: 2.184
     2060: 0.982
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 32.42
     2030: 27.73
     2060: 16.39
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 6.443
     2030: 5.792
     2060: 6.525
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 43.01
     2030: 30.03
     2060: 10.21
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 64.49
     2030: 67.72
     2060: 74.39
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 62.28
     2030: 65.13
     2060: 71.22
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 66.72
     2030: 70.37
     2060: 77.63
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 4.088
     2030: 3.510
     2060: 2.127
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.304
     2030: 0.212
     2060: 0.079
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 0.819
     2030: 0.982
     2060: 1.011
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 2.272
     2030: 2.715
     2060: 3.111
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 2.975
     2030: 4.572
     2060: 8.118
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 0.145
     2030: 0.231
     2060: 0.961
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 1.083
     2030: 1.802
     2060: 4.411
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.463
     2030: 0.518
     2060: 0.568
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 48.44
     2030: 49.82
     2060: 50.00

Health Forecast for Eritrea -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 0.078
     2030: 0.033
     2060: 0.370
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 7.071
     2030: 7.632
     2060: 8.944
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 37.42
     2030: 22.45
     2060: 4.226
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 38.21
     2030: 30.91
     2060: 16.90
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 58.57
     2030: 36.06
     2060: 11.85

Education Forecast for Eritrea -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 58.78
     2030: 78.80
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 43.39
     2030: 67.08
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 48.10
     2030: 78.33
     2060: 103.6
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 27.10
     2030: 38.28
     2060: 80.19
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 2.934
     2030: 6.072
     2060: 27.29
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 3.378
     2030: 3.760
     2060: 6.344
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 72.22
     2030: 80.52
     2060: 97.81

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Eritrea
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 2.106
     2030: 2.414
     2060: 0.969
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 3.284
     2030: 4.105
     2060: 2.288
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.611
     2030: 0.670
     2060: 0.819
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 30.52
     2030: 20.84
     2060: 2.810
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 2,552
     2030: 2,713
     2060: 3,043
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.305
     2030: -0.272
     2060: -0.084
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.845
     2030: -0.700
     2060: -0.299

Economy Forecast for Eritrea
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 8.123
     2030: 14.44
     2060: 61.43
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 3.280
     2030: 5.983
     2060: 33.85
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 1.506
     2030: 1.921
     2060: 5.040
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.473
     2030: 0.454
     2060: 0.498
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 30.53
     2030: 35.35
     2060: 36.23
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.134
     2030: 4.361
     2060: 20.37

Energy Forecast for Eritrea
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

Environment Forecast for Eritrea
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000

International Politics Forecast for Eritrea
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.032
     2030: 0.030
     2060: 0.052

Domestic Government Forecast for Eritrea
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 2.004
     2030: 2.207
     2060: 2.865
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.257
     2030: 4.407
     2060: 7.576
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 2.534
     2030: 2.709
     2060: 3.436
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 0.931
     2030: 1.202
     2060: 2.045
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 5.655
     2030: 5.789
     2060: 6.278