Country Profile - Cuba      IFs Version 7.15
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Cuba
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Cuba -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 11.27
     2030: 10.94
     2060: 8.947
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: -0.100
     2030: -0.392
     2060: -0.906
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 9.557
     2030: 8.269
     2060: 7.930
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 8.104
     2030: 10.41
     2060: 16.99
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 4.143
     2030: 2.698
     2060: 1.352
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 79.79
     2030: 81.76
     2060: 85.26
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 77.72
     2030: 79.51
     2060: 82.69
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 81.89
     2030: 84.02
     2060: 87.79
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.495
     2030: 1.566
     2060: 1.693
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.054
     2030: 0.044
     2060: 0.014
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 0.652
     2030: 0.573
     2060: 0.436
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 1.731
     2030: 1.498
     2060: 1.114
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 7.910
     2030: 6.908
     2060: 4.700
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 1.630
     2030: 2.536
     2060: 3.134
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 8.483
     2030: 8.388
     2060: 7.180
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.474
     2030: 0.437
     2060: 0.374
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 39.74
     2030: 42.81
     2060: 46.65

Health Forecast for Cuba -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 32.55
     2030: 32.94
     2060: 32.72
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 36.84
     2030: 36.71
     2060: 33.80
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 1.402
     2030: 1.639
     2060: 2.068
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 0.058
     2030: 0.081
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 4.555
     2030: 4.079
     2060: 3.993

Education Forecast for Cuba -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 105.2
     2030: 99.00
     2060: 96.67
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 99.98
     2030: 99.00
     2060: 97.57
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 98.83
     2030: 97.41
     2060: 93.96
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 88.17
     2030: 87.94
     2060: 90.13
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 80.22
     2030: 78.50
     2060: 78.73
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 10.81
     2030: 11.61
     2060: 13.44
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 100.0
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Cuba
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.933
     2030: 0.962
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 2.613
     2030: 2.232
     2060: 1.413
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,280
     2030: 3,300
     2060: 3,284
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.293
     2030: 0.336
     2060: 0.338
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.661
     2030: 0.722
     2060: 0.787

Economy Forecast for Cuba
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 228.7
     2030: 303.6
     2060: 371.1
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 81.11
     2030: 138.2
     2060: 260.1
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 20.29
     2030: 27.75
     2060: 41.48
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.415
     2030: 0.427
     2060: 0.481
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 4.313
     2030: 1.148
     2060: -0.773
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 46.75
     2030: 53.01
     2060: 70.39

Energy Forecast for Cuba
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.049
     2030: 0.075
     2060: 0.109

Environment Forecast for Cuba
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.013
     2030: 0.018
     2060: 0.018

International Politics Forecast for Cuba
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.150
     2030: 0.122
     2060: 0.071

Domestic Government Forecast for Cuba
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 3.067
     2030: 3.236
     2060: 3.560
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.779
     2030: 5.564
     2060: 8.921
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 4.077
     2030: 5.323
     2060: 7.548
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.261
     2030: 2.638
     2060: 3.259
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 7.207
     2030: 7.393
     2060: 7.622