Country Profile - Cuba      IFs Version 7.24
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for Cuba
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Cuba -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 11.38
     2030: 11.11
     2060: 9.201
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: -0.049
     2030: -0.341
     2060: -0.833
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 9.908
     2030: 8.718
     2060: 8.330
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 7.968
     2030: 10.35
     2060: 16.66
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 5.030
     2030: 3.271
     2060: 1.655
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 79.92
     2030: 81.86
     2060: 85.30
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 77.84
     2030: 79.56
     2060: 82.68
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 82.03
     2030: 84.17
     2060: 87.90
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.596
     2030: 1.650
     2060: 1.740
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.149
     2030: 0.129
     2060: 0.048
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 0.581
     2030: 0.499
     2060: 0.388
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 1.831
     2030: 1.563
     2060: 1.190
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 7.901
     2030: 6.979
     2060: 4.879
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 1.649
     2030: 2.563
     2060: 3.132
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 8.790
     2030: 8.865
     2060: 7.728
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.473
     2030: 0.440
     2060: 0.383
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 38.96
     2030: 42.34
     2060: 46.50

Health Forecast for Cuba -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 32.42
     2030: 34.75
     2060: 36.81
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 36.06
     2030: 36.54
     2060: 35.42
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 3.341
     2030: 3.038
     2060: 2.592
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 3.109
     2030: 0.849
     2060: 0.023
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 4.518
     2030: 3.120
     2060: 1.906

Education Forecast for Cuba -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 99.60
     2030: 102.2
     2060: 99.84
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 87.41
     2030: 99.49
     2060: 99.91
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 101.5
     2030: 105.2
     2060: 101.3
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 98.76
     2030: 104.2
     2060: 104.5
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 40.43
     2030: 44.56
     2060: 55.73
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 10.81
     2030: 11.43
     2060: 12.85
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 99.95
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for Cuba
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.936
     2030: 0.964
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 3.024
     2030: 2.536
     2060: 1.611
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,305
     2030: 3,429
     2060: 3,532
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.290
     2030: 0.338
     2060: 0.350
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: 0.704
     2030: 0.767
     2060: 0.813

Economy Forecast for Cuba
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 240.4
     2030: 316.0
     2060: 380.9
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 80.48
     2030: 135.1
     2060: 249.0
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 21.12
     2030: 28.45
     2060: 41.39
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.411
     2030: 0.448
     2060: 0.492
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 17.08
     2030: 20.19
     2060: 22.44
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 37.94
     2030: 45.48
     2060: 60.95

Energy Forecast for Cuba
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 0.023
     2030: 0.034
     2060: 0.066

Environment Forecast for Cuba
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 0.012
     2030: 0.017
     2060: 0.021

International Politics Forecast for Cuba
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 0.135
     2030: 0.124
     2060: 0.089

Domestic Government Forecast for Cuba
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 3.012
     2030: 3.143
     2060: 3.398
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.334
     2030: 5.072
     2060: 8.461
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 4.342
     2030: 5.512
     2060: 7.556
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.495
     2030: 2.824
     2060: 3.350
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 7.232
     2030: 7.408
     2060: 7.625