Country Profile - China      IFs Version 6.69
  Continue    Change Country    Display Options    Map Source  


Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
www.ifs.du.edu


Sign up for our monthly newsletter.

     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2013: 1,362
     2030: 1,410
     2060: 1,269
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2013: 0.465
     2030: -0.091
     2060: -0.631
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2013: 12.45
     2030: 9.187
     2060: 8.624
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2013: 7.583
     2030: 9.881
     2060: 14.80
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2013: 18.47
     2030: 9.744
     2060: 4.103
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2013: 73.93
     2030: 77.31
     2060: 82.20
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2013: 72.13
     2030: 74.90
     2060: 79.40
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2013: 75.87
     2030: 79.83
     2060: 85.03
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2013: 1.618
     2030: 1.668
     2060: 1.756
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2013: 0.059
     2030: 0.047
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2013: 99.29
     2030: 80.50
     2060: 67.30
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2013: 251.6
     2030: 218.6
     2060: 176.1
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2013: 989.3
     2030: 960.8
     2060: 716.4
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2013: 120.6
     2030: 231.0
     2060: 376.2
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2013: 647.2
     2030: 909.8
     2060: 1,038
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2013: 0.585
     2030: 0.561
     2060: 0.470
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2013: 45.45
     2030: 48.28
     2060: 49.69

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2013: 5.238
     2030: 7.663
     2060: 10.91
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2013: 33.65
     2030: 35.39
     2060: 35.06
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2013: 3.084
     2030: 2.066
     2060: 1.858
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2013: 1.625
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2013: 9.495
     2030: 2.095
     2060: 0.000

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2013: 113.1
     2030: 100.3
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2013: 97.72
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 95.97
     2030: 103.9
     2060: 99.08
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 69.43
     2030: 88.13
     2060: 102.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2013: 26.20
     2030: 36.03
     2060: 60.54
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2013: 7.680
     2030: 8.455
     2060: 10.30
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2013: 94.49
     2030: 96.97
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for China
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2013: 55.50
     2030: 7.127
     2060: 0.111
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation - Million People - -
     2013: 219.5
     2030: 45.10
     2060: 1.410
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2013: 0.830
     2030: 0.902
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2013: 5.105
     2030: 2.699
     2060: 1.332
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2013: 3,095
     2030: 3,351
     2060: 3,645
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2013: -0.320
     2030: -0.044
     2060: 0.432
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2013: -0.813
     2030: -0.711
     2060: -0.398

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 10,752
     2030: 25,181
     2060: 70,848
Gross domestic product - Billion 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 4,952
     2030: 16,783
     2060: 63,978
GDP per capita at PPP - Thousand 2005 Dollars - -
     2013: 7.897
     2030: 17.85
     2060: 55.85
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2013: 0.475
     2030: 0.494
     2060: 0.510
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2013: 21.60
     2030: 28.13
     2060: 39.83
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2013: 27.69
     2030: 43.85
     2060: 97.07

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2013: 1.355
     2030: 0.696
     2060: 0.179

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2013: 2.129
     2030: 2.406
     2060: 1.512

International Politics Forecast for China
Power index (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2013: 12.89
     2030: 19.23
     2060: 24.64

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2013: 3.080
     2030: 3.494
     2060: 4.095
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2013: 3.389
     2030: 5.459
     2060: 9.198
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2013: 3.654
     2030: 5.031
     2060: 9.741
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2013: 2.726
     2030: 3.258
     2060: 3.987
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2013: 6.636
     2030: 7.134
     2060: 7.802