Country Profile - China      IFs Version 7.15
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     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 1,406
     2030: 1,439
     2060: 1,315
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 0.449
     2030: -0.059
     2060: -0.599
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 12.78
     2030: 9.194
     2060: 8.704
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 8.082
     2030: 9.580
     2060: 14.53
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 15.81
     2030: 8.613
     2060: 3.570
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 74.40
     2030: 77.53
     2060: 82.54
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 72.56
     2030: 75.20
     2060: 79.80
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 76.37
     2030: 79.97
     2060: 85.27
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.670
     2030: 1.700
     2060: 1.776
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.058
     2030: 0.047
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 109.9
     2030: 80.73
     2060: 70.14
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 257.7
     2030: 225.1
     2060: 186.2
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 1,010
     2030: 977.8
     2060: 732.8
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 138.1
     2030: 235.8
     2060: 395.9
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 793.3
     2030: 1,107
     2060: 1,210
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.563
     2030: 0.542
     2060: 0.451
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 45.30
     2030: 47.63
     2060: 49.45

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 5.570
     2030: 7.539
     2060: 8.904
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 27.82
     2030: 30.90
     2060: 29.74
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 2.742
     2030: 2.030
     2060: 2.104
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 8.996
     2030: 4.301
     2060: 1.308

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 116.5
     2030: 100.8
     2060: 100.1
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 99.95
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 102.8
     2030: 101.0
     2060: 98.86
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 86.73
     2030: 97.18
     2060: 97.55
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 35.78
     2030: 50.24
     2060: 79.30
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 8.437
     2030: 9.469
     2060: 11.94
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 96.00
     2030: 97.92
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for China
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 57.10
     2030: 22.55
     2060: 1.518
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 171.7
     2030: 67.11
     2060: 5.855
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.861
     2030: 0.930
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 3.889
     2030: 2.278
     2060: 1.388
Calories per capita available - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,132
     2030: 3,339
     2060: 3,471
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.162
     2030: -0.035
     2060: 0.436
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.832
     2030: -0.707
     2060: -0.356

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 17,033
     2030: 38,718
     2060: 112,265
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 10,507
     2030: 29,717
     2060: 105,412
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 12.12
     2030: 26.91
     2060: 85.38
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.432
     2030: 0.514
     2060: 0.556
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 5.322
     2030: 4.670
     2060: 6.839
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 40.83
     2030: 58.30
     2060: 92.30

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 1.698
     2030: 2.166
     2060: 0.691

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 2.681
     2030: 3.404
     2060: 2.308

International Politics Forecast for China
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 14.97
     2030: 21.05
     2060: 26.10

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 3.128
     2030: 3.434
     2060: 4.034
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.771
     2030: 5.558
     2060: 9.212
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 3.941
     2030: 5.909
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.802
     2030: 3.345
     2060: 4.149
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 6.525
     2030: 6.947
     2060: 7.542