Country Profile - China      IFs Version 7.37
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2019: 1,422
     2030: 1,437
     2060: 1,274
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2019: 0.307
     2030: -0.103
     2060: -0.697
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2019: 11.01
     2030: 8.902
     2060: 8.513
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2019: 7.724
     2030: 9.718
     2060: 15.27
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2019: 9.562
     2030: 6.773
     2060: 3.424
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2019: 76.69
     2030: 78.51
     2060: 82.71
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2019: 75.20
     2030: 76.86
     2060: 80.95
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2019: 78.26
     2030: 80.23
     2060: 84.52
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2019: 1.634
     2030: 1.663
     2060: 1.747
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2019: 0.053
     2030: 0.045
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2019: 83.29
     2030: 65.07
     2060: 55.24
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2019: 250.1
     2030: 217.7
     2060: 175.5
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2019: 1,004
     2030: 972.3
     2060: 710.2
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2019: 167.4
     2030: 246.6
     2060: 388.1
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2019: 863.8
     2030: 1,142
     2060: 1,172
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2019: 0.454
     2030: 0.301
     2060: 0.137
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2019: 44.94
     2030: 47.08
     2060: 49.34

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2019: 9.841
     2030: 11.74
     2060: 13.87
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2019: 26.19
     2030: 28.27
     2060: 28.13
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2019: 1.917
     2030: 1.346
     2060: 1.603
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2019: 0.852
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2019: 7.553
     2030: 4.554
     2060: 2.156

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2019: 105.3
     2030: 102.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2019: 96.45
     2030: 99.97
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2019: 100.4
     2030: 103.9
     2060: 99.80
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2019: 92.44
     2030: 96.39
     2060: 98.16
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2019: 49.82
     2030: 63.58
     2060: 86.30
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2019: 7.996
     2030: 8.904
     2060: 11.86
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2019: 95.72
     2030: 97.10
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for China
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2019: 0.966
     2030: 0.102
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2019: 50.26
     2030: 12.01
     2060: 0.017
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2019: 0.888
     2030: 0.925
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2019: 3.263
     2030: 2.236
     2060: 0.984
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2019: 3,253
     2030: 3,416
     2060: 3,585
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2019: -0.182
     2030: -0.116
     2060: 0.232
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2019: -0.854
     2030: -0.789
     2060: -0.614

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2019: 22,521
     2030: 33,950
     2060: 67,271
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2019: 12,891
     2030: 23,785
     2060: 61,160
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2019: 15.84
     2030: 23.63
     2060: 52.81
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2019: 0.421
     2030: 0.417
     2060: 0.368
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2019: 16.66
     2030: 17.18
     2060: 23.23
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2019: 56.21
     2030: 71.62
     2060: 93.89

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2019: 1.595
     2030: 1.274
     2060: 0.241

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2019: 2.868
     2030: 2.903
     2060: 2.154

International Politics Forecast for China
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2019: 15.99
     2030: 18.81
     2060: 19.47

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2019: 3.070
     2030: 3.287
     2060: 3.913
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2019: 3.593
     2030: 4.852
     2060: 8.499
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2019: 3.956
     2030: 5.038
     2060: 8.833
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2019: 2.953
     2030: 3.236
     2060: 3.832
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2019: 6.486
     2030: 6.696
     2060: 7.114