Country Profile - China      IFs Version 7.26
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
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     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human Needs
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2016: 1,384
     2030: 1,414
     2060: 1,253
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2016: 0.466
     2030: -0.113
     2060: -0.705
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 12.04
     2030: 8.536
     2060: 8.196
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2016: 7.175
     2030: 9.463
     2060: 15.24
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Infants - -
     2016: 10.41
     2030: 6.210
     2060: 3.132
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2016: 76.35
     2030: 78.93
     2060: 83.26
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2016: 74.87
     2030: 77.19
     2060: 81.23
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2016: 77.92
     2030: 80.76
     2060: 85.33
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2016: 1.586
     2030: 1.631
     2060: 1.728
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2016: 0.057
     2030: 0.050
     2060: 0.019
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2016: 83.74
     2030: 61.59
     2060: 52.33
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2016: 239.2
     2030: 209.3
     2060: 167.1
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2016: 1,005
     2030: 961.3
     2060: 684.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2016: 140.2
     2030: 243.8
     2060: 401.2
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2016: 791.1
     2030: 1,135
     2060: 1,153
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2016: 0.583
     2030: 0.557
     2060: 0.455
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2016: 44.45
     2030: 47.25
     2060: 49.39

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2016: 4.942
     2030: 6.592
     2060: 8.472
Smoking Rate - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2016: 26.08
     2030: 28.24
     2060: 28.29
Malnourished children as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2016: 3.305
     2030: 2.044
     2060: 2.038
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 2.010
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2016: 8.797
     2030: 5.090
     2060: 2.383

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2016: 109.6
     2030: 100.4
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2016: 91.43
     2030: 99.99
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 108.2
     2030: 105.7
     2060: 100.0
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 91.57
     2030: 105.4
     2060: 100.0
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2016: 41.38
     2030: 79.11
     2060: 89.85
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2016: 8.445
     2030: 9.640
     2060: 12.03
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2016: 95.47
     2030: 97.38
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Needs Forecast for China
Population with income less than $1.25 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 29.79
     2030: 28.14
     2060: 7.752
Population with income less than $2 per day, log normal computation (using 2005 ICP based survey data) - Million People - -
     2016: 155.3
     2030: 113.8
     2060: 33.56
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 0.877
     2030: 0.928
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2016: 3.779
     2030: 2.073
     2060: 1.021
Calories per capita available - Total - Available per Person per Day - -
     2016: 3,129
     2030: 3,314
     2060: 3,502
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.185
     2030: -0.109
     2060: 0.239
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2016: -0.864
     2030: -0.788
     2060: -0.607

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 18,893
     2030: 33,266
     2060: 63,625
Gross domestic product - Billion 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 10,619
     2030: 24,004
     2060: 58,758
GDP per capita at PPP (2011 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2011 Dollars - -
     2016: 13.65
     2030: 23.52
     2060: 50.78
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2016: 0.433
     2030: 0.520
     2060: 0.582
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2016: 17.18
     2030: 17.62
     2060: 23.63
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2016: 44.55
     2030: 80.88
     2060: 90.40

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2016: 1.546
     2030: 1.711
     2060: 0.510

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2016: 2.382
     2030: 3.007
     2060: 1.948

International Politics Forecast for China
Power index, Hillebrand Herman (percent of global total) - Index - -
     2016: 14.91
     2030: 20.06
     2060: 20.58

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2016: 3.025
     2030: 3.311
     2060: 3.819
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2016: 3.324
     2030: 5.023
     2060: 8.674
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2016: 3.756
     2030: 5.158
     2060: 8.691
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2016: 2.896
     2030: 3.276
     2060: 3.829
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2016: 6.484
     2030: 6.778
     2060: 7.178