International Futures: Example Assignment

Simulation Assignment

FYS

LATIN AMERICA

We will examine the impact that Latin America’s debt has on its economy and on a some social variables too. To do that you should simulate a future in which all of Latin America’s foreign debt is forgiven, and compare that scenario to the base case (where interest must be paid annually on its debt).

Although you may choose to examine a number of other variables, ones that you need to be certain to look at are some that provide information on the standard of living of the population, on the strength of the economy, and on another type of variable such as its population growth rate (to see how changes in one variable can affect others in a different area of the region). To do this simulate debt forgiveness, then present a graph that shows what happens to each of your variables under the base case, and under the alternative scenario - after all debt is forgiven. That way we can easily see the difference. Thus you will present several graphs; one for each variable with the base case and the alternative scenario on it. You should try to think through what you expect the impact of debt forgiveness will be on each of the variables that you examine BEFORE you actually see the estimated impact. Then compare the actual results with your expectations.

To do this we must generate the raw data from the model, export it to a spreadsheet and generate a graph. Then paste that graph into a PowerPoint slide so that you can show it to the class as you talk about the model. The paragraphs below discuss the specific variables that you might want to view, and the way to carry out this assignment on the computer.

Let’s focus on three variables to provide evidence on the standard of living of the population. Those variables are: income per capita (GDPPC), an index that measures the physical quality of life (PQLI), and the share of national income that goes to the poorest 20% of the population (INCSHR). So the first three variables you might examine are:

GDPPC, PQLI, INCSHR

Next we will look at three variables that tell us something more about the economy: the rate of growth of production (GDPR), the rate of inflation in the prices of manufactured goods (PRI) and the share of investment in total production (IRA). So the next three variables you might look at are:

GDPR, PRI, IRA

Finally, let’s look at the population growth rate (POPR), to see how a change in an economic parameter can affect a demographic variable. So, look at

POPR.

To help you with the actual computer steps involved in this assignment there is a guide below for you to follow. The guide is broken into three sections corresponding to the three computer programs that you will use: (I.) International Futures Simulation; (II.) EXCEL spreadsheet; (III.) PowerPoint presentation software.

MAKING YOUR PRESENTATION

For your presentation you should tell the class what policy you have simulated. You might ask them what they expect the impact will be on each variable before you show them the answer.

Think through why the changes you observe have occurred; sometimes you may be surprised at what you see. In your talk try to explain the changes you see. Sometimes it may not be so easy, but give it a try.

Try to make you slides clear so that we can read them, and can see when a variable changes in value. Since graphs are great for seeing trends over time, but not so good for seeing individual data points, you will want to keep a hard copy record of the data you display so that you can refer to it if you need to tell the class the exact amount a variable you’re viewing has changed.


COMPUTER GUIDE

I. INTERNATIONAL FUTURES SIMULATION

First you need to open the simulation program International Futures Simulation (IFS). To do that:

1- at the desk top level click on START at the bottom left of the screen.

2.- click on “Programs”

3- click on “IFS”

4- click on the blue icon (International Futures) - the program will load and the intro screen appear.

5- click CONTINUE at the opening Map screen

You may want to start by exploring the base case. To do that simply pull down DISPLAY, then SELECT VARIABLES and choose “Full Variable Selection”, and type in the (or highlight) the names of variables you want to view. Then go DISPLAY and select a linegraph, table, or whatever you want and view the behavior of the variable(s) over the base case. This isn't a necessary part of this assignment, but it will help give you a sense of how the model's variables change over time.

For this assignment the first thing you want to do is to change the parameter so that we can simulate debt forgiveness. Then run the model (you can run it for 25 years), and generate tables for this scenario and the base case.

From the Main Menu

1- Pull down file marked CHANGE

2- highlight “FULL SET”

3- Type in REPAYR, then hit return

4- In the “Change Values” dialogue box

set current value to “0”

repeat/interpolate years: set to “51”

final interpolation value: set to “0”

push the “interpolate” radio button

Exit to Main Menu

5- Pull down Run

6- Change the number of years to run the model if you want to here (25 years is usually good)

6a- Push Start Run; click on the Run Successful-Continue button when the run is completed

7- Go to DISPLAY menu and from SELECT VARIABLES choose Full Variable Selection

NOTE: in the the next step the [0] extension on variable names refers to the changed model you just ran, and the [1] extension refers to the base case.

8- Type in two variables you want to look at, for instance type GDPPC[0] enter and highlight Latin America, then type GDPPC[1] enter and highlight Latin America. (Even though you will want to examine several sets of two variables you need to look at them two at a time.)

9- EXIT to Display

10- Choose Table...... a table should appear that gives values for this variable (you probably should PRINT this table to keep for your own reference and to be sure that there are differences in the values from the two runs; to do this push PRINT).

11- Next click on the SAVE button at the bottom of the table window.

12- in the Folders window select where you want to save this file. Search for and then save it in a folder named FYS-LA that you will find inside the Run Files. Double click on that folder so that it opens up.

13- enter a name for your file eg. GDPPC.csv, and click on OK - make sure the folder you want to save it in, FYS-LA, is highlighted when you click on SAVE.

(a .csv extension lets the spreadsheet program - EXCEL- know that this is a “comma separated value file”).

14- click on CONTINUE at the bottom of the Table window, and repeat steps 7 - 14 for each of the sets of two variables you want to compare. (So, you will have several files saved in FYS-LA).

15- Move the IFS program to the task bar at the bottom of the window by clicking on the left most of the three icons (underscore _) at the very upper right corner of your screen.

II. EXCEL spreadsheet

You are now ready to export your data (from the .csv file) into the spreadsheet EXCEL

1- start Excel from the “START” button at the bottom left of the desk-top screen (or if you have already opened it from the task bar at the bottom of the desktop).

2- From the File menu, select OPEN

3- find your .csv file and double click on the file name (you'll see a spread sheet containing your table as data)

(to find the file - at the bottom of the dialog box type file name (eg. GDPPC.csv), and highlight “ALL FILES” in the box below that; at the top of the dialog box highlight C:drive (not “my documents”), open IFS, open RUN FILES, open, your folder FYS-LA.)

4- Highlight the column HEADERS (A,B,C) to highlight all the data you want to use (generally you’ll want all the columns with data in them, including column A with the Years)

5- at the top right of the screen click on the chart wizard button (it's the bar graph icon just left of the icon that looks like a globe) and follow this 4-step process

a- select your Chart Type, generally a line graph will do fine, as will the first chart icon (upper left choice) as a sub-type; click the “next” button.

b- click on “SERIES” header tab; the variables at the top of your data file should appear as your series names. (if the series names happen to show the generic names of Series 1, Series 2... change their names to the current variable names).

c- you want to label your x- and y- axes with their correct units (eg. ‘years’). If you are going to export this graph to a PowerPoint slide, you probably do not want to title your graph here, since the PowerPoint title will be much clearer. Click “nextÓ.

d- You have a choice to save your graph on top of your table of data (as an object in) or in a new sheet (behind the scene). HINT: If you are going to create and save multiple graphs (and possibly export them to PowerPoint for presentation at a later time, use AS NEW SHEET in this step once for each graph).

When you have finished with EXCEL you will have your original spreadsheet of data and as many sheets as graphs. NOTE: to switch between sheets, look at the tabs at the bottom of the EXCEL spreadsheet

screen then see your graph.

e- click “finish” ... the Chart Wizard’s four steps are now complete, and you should see your graph.

6- To alter the axes on the graph so that you can see changes in the variable more clearly, double click on the x and/or y axes. On both axes change the font to size 16 for easier viewing. On the y-axes click on SCALE to set the minimum (or maximum) value just below (or above) you first or last data point; that way the entire graph is used by your data. On the x-axes change the scale so there are 5 categories between each tick mark label.

To copy a graph from Excel to paste (for example) into PowerPoint

7- Click once on the Chart Area (not the Plot Area; click just outside the plotted area)

8- from the edit menu select COPY

9- Move Excel to the task bar at the bottom of the window by clicking on the left most of the icons at the very top-right corner of your screen (it’s an underscore ”_”).

III. POWERPOINT presentation software

You are now ready to paste your graph into PowerPoint

1- start PowerPoint from the START button at the bottom left of the desktop screen (or if you have already opened it from the task bar at the bottom of the desktop screen).

2- You press a radio button at the beginning to determine if you are creating a NEW presentation or opening an EXISTING presentation. When creating a new presentation, the BLANK PRESENTATION radio-button choice is a good first try. If you are adding a graph to an existing presentation choose EXISTING presentation and find the appropriate file from the dialog box.

3- Either from the AutoLayout mode that automatically appears (if this is the first graph you’re pasting into PowerPoint) or by clicking on NEW SLIDE from the Common Tasks palette (if you're adding a slide to an existing presentation),

4- Choose the CHART type you want from the Slide Layout Palette (for a graph click on the one that has an area for the title and single bar graph underneath it, second row farthest right; for a slide of text choose the first icon at the top), then click OK.

5- DON’T DO IT ... PowerPoint will show you a new slide with the instructions “double click to insert chart” - you do NOT need to double click (it brings up this annoying generic chart; believe me, you don't want to see it; simply click its exit choice in the upper right hand window if it does appear).

6- instead simply click once on the chart area

7- from the EDIT menu select PASTE

8- Add a title to your slide

9- To add more slides to your presentation you will need to create new graphs in EXCEL and repeat this process. So, move PowerPoint to the task bar at the bottom of your window by clicking on the underscore(_) at the top right of your screen, and open up EXCEL again and begin at step II-2 and repeat this process.

10- Within PowerPoint you can change the order of the slides to whatever order you desire. To do that pull down FORMAT from the task palette, then choose OUTLINE and just drag the slides into the correct order.

You can also add some nifty bells and whistles to your presentation by working with the “transitions” between slides. Pull own the VIEW menu from the task palette and look at the slide sorter choice. Experiment with different transitions until you find one you like.

By choosing SLIDE SHOW you can see what you will present.

11- When you have finished you will want to save your PowerPoint slides. While running PowerPoint and viewing the slides you want to save:

a- from the FILE menu select SAVE AS

there are two main formats for saving slides: as a PowerPoint show (use this for the final version, your file name will have a .pps extension to it.)

as a Presentation (use this for saving work in progress; your file name will have a .ppt extension to it).

b- make sure you save this file where you want it

either select the FYS-LA directory on the C: drive or

save it on a floppy disk (insert the floppy into the A: drive first).

You can bring this disk to class to make your presentation.

c- type in your file name.

12- Move PowerPoint to the task bar by clicking on the underscore (_) at the top right hand corner of the screen, and you are ready to shut down the computer. Do that by clicking on START button at the bottom left of your screen and choosing shutdown.