International Futures: Example Syllabus

SCCC 3340 - 501

Proseminar: INTERNATIONAL FUTURES

Professor Harvey Starr

Dep't of Government and Int'l Studies

Gambrell 432

University of South Carolina

777-7292; e-mail: starr@garnet.cla.sc.edu
Fall 1997

Office Hours: Mon/Wed 2:00-3:30 pm and by appointment

COURSE DESCRIPTION AND OVERVIEW

The contemporary international system poses a complex array of political, economic, ecological and strategic problems and puzzles. One way to approach these complex issues, and the questions "What can be done?" or "What must be done?" is to deal with the future through such endeavors as forecasting, projections, and futurology. We also must recognize that the present world system is only one outcome in a vast variety of possible world systems, and that we must begin to consider a broad range of alternatives. To study about world order is to study about (alternative) international futures. But, as Barry Hughes points out, to study the future is to be concerned with choices, choices which must be made under conditions of uncertainty: "We cannot know the future, but it is important to act in the face of that uncertainty" (International Futures, p.2). Hughes presents us with three questions to help deal with that uncertainty: "where do current changes appear to be taking us? ...what kind of future would we prefer? ...how much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer?" (p.2). These questions will help to anchor the course and the simulation which is at its core.

This course is organized to introduce students to a range of ways by which analysts have tried to think about and study the future. We will deal with general overviews, categorizations, and critiques of futurology. In addition to Hughes' International Futures two other texts will be used in this part of the course: Barry Hughes, World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives (1985), and Allan Goodman, A Brief History of the Future (1993). We will then move on to the set of contemporary problems (the "problematique") and future alternatives, applying futures concepts and approaches to contemporary issue areas: economics; population/food; environment/technology; and nuclear/strategic issues. These problem areas thus reflect the politics of exchange and distribution in energy and raw materials, food, and technology, the politics affecting labor (population) and capital (investment, aid, debt), and the politics of global security, armaments and war.

We will explore the interdependencies and trade-offs among these issues through the use of computer simulation. The central text around which the course will be structured is Barry Hughes, International Futures (1996). In Hughes' words (p.xiii): "This book will immerse you in thinking about global futures. It is not a book for passive readers... it asks you to participate in the development of your own understanding and vision. The book involves you in investigating the future in two ways. The first is via traditional text...through the extrapolation of trends and through causal understanding of the world... The second method, which will involve you even more actively in exploration of the future, is a computer simulation model called International Futures (IFs). IFs is a global model that simulates population, food, energy, environmental, economic, and political developments from a base year of 1992, allowing forecasts extending as far into the future as the year 2050." The central activity of the course will be the analysis of current trends and future scenarios through IFs.

STUDENT REQUIREMENTS

Participation

There are two keys to the nature of this course. First, this course is listed as a proseminar. As such, your participation in class discussions, class presentations, and class activities related to mastery of the simulation, is vital. You must be present to participate. You must do the reading in order to participate. All reading assignments are to be considered an essential part of the course requirements. There is a relatively light reading load for an upper level seminar. Students will be expected to have completed the relevant reading assignment before coming to class. Students will also be expected to discuss that reading with some degree of thought and coherency. Class Participation (the quantity and quality of participation in class discussion which includes mastery of reading assignments; the completion and quality of class presentations) will comprise 35% of the course grade. Each student must see the instructor during the week preceding Fall Break (October 6-10) for an interim evaluation of class participation.

Written Assignments

The second key is the IFs simulation. It is the basis (or objective) for all of the course papers-- exercises and final projects-- and course presentations.

-- Basic IFs Exercises; Parameter and Variable Reports; Scenario Designs (25% of grade)

-- International Futures Scenario Final Project (40% of grade)

Course Reading

Books required for purchase (all paperback):

Allan Goodman, A Brief History of the Future (Boulder: Westview, 1993)

Barry Hughes, World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1985)

Barry Hughes, International Futures, 2nd edition (Boulder: Westview, 1996)

Additional readings will be distributed in class or placed on reserve at Thomas Cooper Library.

All of the reading listed on the syllabus is required reading (see above). Students wishing to pursue any topic in more detail should speak to the instructor.

COURSE OUTLINE AND READING ASSIGNMENTS



Course Introduction/Organization (Aug.22))

PART I THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE

1. The Future (Aug.25, 27)

Required Reading

Max Singer, "What is Happening in History," P.S., March 1997 [on Reserve]

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.1

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.1

Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, chs.1, 2

Suggested

Edward Cornish, THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE, chs.4-7 [on Reserve]

[Note: August 29: Session in Liberal Arts Computing Lab]

2. Overview of Futures Studies (Sept.3, 5)

Required Reading

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, chs.2, 3, 10, 11

Sam Cole, "The Global Futures Debate, 1965-1976," in Richrd Falk, Samuel Kim, and Saul Mendlovitz, eds., TOWARD A JUST WORLD ORDER [on reserve]

Suggested

Cornish, THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE, chs.9, 10 [on Reserve]


PART II SIMULATING THE FUTURE

1. The Basics of IFs (Sept.8, 10, 12)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, chs.2, 3, 8

2. Variables, Parameters, and Basic IFs Exercises (Sept.15, 17, 19)

Required Reading

IFs "Variables" and "Parameter Listings" from both the 1st and 2nd editions; 2nd edition handout, 1st edition on Reserve. See also IFs Simulation HELP Menu.

"Exercises From Other Courses" Folder [on Reserve]

Note: You should start reading Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE

PART III THE GLOBAL PROBLEMATIQUE: ISSUES, FACTORS, RELATIONSHIPS

1. Overview (Sept.22, 24, 26)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.4 (review ch.2)

IFs HELP Menu, "Model Detail"

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.8

Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, chs.4, 7

2. Population (Sept.29, Oct.1, 3)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.5 (population-related sections)

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.4

3. Food and Agriculture (Oct.6, 8, 10)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.5 (food-related sections)

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.7

4. Energy and the Environment (Oct.15, 17, 20)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.5 (energy and environment-related sections)

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, chs.6, 9

5. Economics (Oct.22, 24, 27, 29, 31)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.6

Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.5

Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, ch.5

6. Security and Peace (Nov.3, 5, 7)

Required Reading

Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.7

Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, chs.3, 6, 8


PART IV SCENARIOS OF CHANGE

1. Theory, Models and Hypotheses: Creating Scenarios (Nov.10, 12, 14, 17, 19, 21)

-- student reports; discussions and critiques of Scenario Designs

2. Changing the Future: Scenarios Choices and Outcomes (Dec.1, 3, 5)

-- student reports; discussions and critiques of International Futures Scenario Final Project papers

PAPER DESCRIPTIONS


Basic IFs Exercises

The first topic in Part II of the course (September 8-12) introduces students to the basic components and capabilities of the IFs simulation. A set of exercises indicating that students have achieved some familiarity with the basic components and procedures involved in the simulation will be submitted when the class begins the second section of Part II (September 15-19). The exercises will be graded simply pass/fail, and will be due in class on September 15. Exercises A, B, and C are from courses developed by other faculty who have used IFs.

-- Do the exercises presented in the assignment labeled A.

-- In addition, select any single country/region. For that selection choose up to three different variables. For each variable produce a table, line graph, and bar chart. What do these materials tell us about the country/region from 1992 to 2050? Select two of the variables and look at them together (you can now use pie charts as well). How do they relate to each other across the 1992-2050 period?

-- Select three different countries/regions and compare them on two different variables (now adding the use of scatter plots).

-- Do the exercises presented in the assignment labeled B.

-- Do the exercises presented in the assignment labeled C.

Parameter and Variable Reports

As noted in the Variables and Parameter Listing handout (generated from the IFs HELP Menu), there are 68 parameters used in the simulation. During the week of September 15 we will discuss the nature and role of these parameters. Earlier in the semester we will divide the parameters equally among class members. For each parameter you will produce a paragraph or two that goes beyond the brief description provided in the handout, explaining what the parameter is, which variables it is most closely related to, and how it might be important to the simulation. Students will be responsible for presenting their material on the parameters in class during that week. Two copies of the written Parameter and Variable Reports will be due in class on September 22. The instructor will place one copy of each report on Reserve.

Scenario Designs

These papers (six double spaced pages maximum length) will be due class on November 10. They are described below in the discussion of the International Futures Scenario Final Project.


NOTE: These three activities will combine to account for 25% of the course grade.

PAPER DESCRIPTION

International Futures Scenario Final Project (40% of grade)


The central activity of the course is the preparation (and presentation) of the International Futures Scenario Final Project. This project requires you to find some aspect of the global system that is of interest to you, and to explore (in any of a number of ways) what the future might look like given the continuation and change in parameters, behavior, and policy choices. Recall Hughes' questions (INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, p.74): "How do we want the future to look? What leverage do we have?" You will be investigating the consequences-- both intended and unintended-- of the scenario you have selected, along with the changes in parameters and variables.

The basic components of the Final Project include the following (with thanks to Brian Pollins of Ohio State University from whose assignment I have borrowed, but substantially modified):

1) Choose one area of particular interest to you.

Each student will select one of the major issues of the problematique that were covered in the course: population; food and agriculture; energy; environment; economic development; security and peace. While we will not finish class discussion of these areas until November 7, an early reading of Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES chapters 2 and 4, our coverage of parameters (during the week of September 15), as well as interests that you have developed in other courses, should have led you to an area of interest by the week of October 6. When you see the instructor that week to discuss class participation, you and the instructor will also agree on an area of interest for your Final Project.

2) Propose a change that you think might improve the situation which the world faces.

In selecting an area of interest, you will have identified current or potential problems or dilemmas. You may investigate your area of interest in different ways: looking at a single country/region (e.g. China or the USA or Africa or Rest of the Developed countries); looking at one or more countries/regions (e.g. the USA, EU and Japan; or China and India and Other Asia); looking at the world system as a whole. You may also use any combination of these (e.g. the World plus the US plus China; or the World plus EU plus Rest of the Developed). Whichever alternative you select, you must explain/justify why you have taken this country/region focus given the area of interest of your scenario.

In suggesting "changes," you are, in effect, creating a new "scenario" of how you think the world would look given different or altered conditions. The "change" that you suggest must be based within some theoretical context. That is, in your assigned reading there are many arguments as to global interdependencies, and hypotheses about what is related to what, and what things should lead to what changes. These are perhaps most clearly presented in INTERNATIONAL FUTURES chapters 2 and 4. Chapter 4 (and Model Detail in the IFs HELP Menu) is particularly useful in providing "models" of relationships-- how variables, parameters and factors might interact. In chapter 3, Hughes provides a number of "Research Questions" that might also form the theoretical basis for your scenarios. Each of chapters 3-9 in WORLD FUTURES includes a section called "Forecasting: Theories and Models," which might also help you in coming up with a scenario and providing its theoretical justififcation. Goodman's book might be used in a similar manner. Students should feel free to discuss their area of interest with the instructor for additional sources of theoretical material; (but be sure to note that you do not have to go beyond the course readings). The scenario should also reflect your understanding of the study of the future-- including the different types of change, issues of the utility and problems of extrapolation, projection, etc.

3) Create a model that reflects your scenario (selecting parameters/table functions/variables).

In creating your scenario you will have selected some factor/set of factors-- explaining which ones have been selected and why, and what the hypothesized direction and magnitude of impact might be. Now you must set out which parameters/table functions/variables are to be involved, what your independent and dependent variables are. Set out the hypothesized consequences; (later, when running your scenario you can match the actual consequences, which are both intended and unintended, against the hypotheses). You should make clear whether or not your purpose is to maximize some condition, minimize some condition, simply to see what happens when some changes are made, and/or to see if hypothesized expectations are met.

NOTE: The results of the activities involved in components #2 and #3 will be condensed into the Scenario Design paper (6 double-spaced pages maximum). Scenario Design papers are due on November 10. Students will present their Scenario Designs as the basis for class discussion during the November 10-21 period.

4) Set up the model run of your scenario, run it, compare the results of your scenario to results from the Base Run.

You need to see how your scenario for a particular country/region (or combination thereof) affects that same country/region, other countries/regions, and the world. If your scenario starts out with a focus on the world, then you need to see how your scenario affects various countries/regions as well as the world. You also need to see how the changes in your scenario affect not only your specific area of interest (e.g. energy) but at least one other area (e.g. economic development or population). The central question is did your proposed change make a difference? Did you obtain the desired outcome? What about higher-order or interdependence effects? (how did your changes affect other countries/regions and/or other areas of interest?).

5) Write up a report describing the various components and steps involved in the Final Project.

Carefully construct a Final Report which reflects the thinking that went into the development of your scenario, the country/region focus, the area of interest selected, the steps you followed in looking at your scenario (which could be set for an end point of 2050 or multiple time periods-- e.g. 2007, 2030, 2050). Summarize the results in terms of the theory behind your scenario, and in comparison to the Base Run. You must include relevant tables, charts, graphs, scatterplots, etc. (e.g. including the data for all relevant aspects of the scenario, both before and after changes in the parameters and independent variables). [NOTE: While IFs is not set up with its own statistical package, you should feel free to export results to any statistical package with which you are familiar for additional analyses. Such analyses are not required.]

Provide conclusions-- what does this all mean? What does it mean for policy? for current trends? for the interdependence among issue areas? How did this project affect your own thinking about global problems and potential solutions? What was missing-- from your own scenario? from IFs in general?

NOTE: The results of the analyses in your International Futures Scenario Final Projects will provide the basis for student reports and discussions during the week of December 1. The Final Projects are due to the instructor by 4:00 pm, Monday, December 8. Papers should be double-spaced (normal margins normal fonts), and be between 15-25 pages in length (not counting tables, charts, graphs, etc.).

HINTS:

¨ Spend time playing with IFs in general, and your model in particular. Just like any "game" software you may have used, there is no substitute for experience. The more time you spend simply playing with IFs and the model, the easier the assignment will become (and the more complex and more interesting and more fascinating the exercise will be for you). You might want to review some of the exercises described in the "Exercise From Other Courses" Folder on Reserve.

¨ Try one change at a time, that is, do not make multiple changes on your model all at once because that will make it more difficult to trace the effects of any single change as its effects work their way through the system. Remember, simulation is one way in which we can "experiment," by being able to control cause and effect. Develop and run your model in such ways as to maximize the control in your experiment.

¨ Create a master table of some kind which keeps track of: initial values of parameters and variables; changes made to these parameters or variables (alone or in combination); and consequences for interpolated or final values (for 2050 or any year between 1992 and 2050). Be sure to note which country/region/[world] (or combination) is being analyzed, and for which country/region/[world] (or combination) you are presenting results.

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SCCC 3340 IMPORTANT DATES:

September 15 Basic IFs Exercises due

September 15-19 Verbal Parameter and Variable Reports in class

September 22 Parameter and Variable Reports due

October 6-10 Meetings with instructor on class participation; Futures Scenario area of interest consultation

November 10 Scenario Designs due

November 10-21 Verbal Scenario Design reports in class

December 1-5 Verbal Final Projects reports in class

December 8 Final Projects due