International Futures: Example Syllabus
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SCCC 3340 - 501
Proseminar: INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
Professor Harvey Starr
Dep't of Government and Int'l Studies
Gambrell 432
University of South Carolina
777-7292; e-mail: starr@garnet.cla.sc.edu
Fall 1997
Office Hours: Mon/Wed 2:00-3:30 pm and
by appointment
COURSE DESCRIPTION AND OVERVIEW
The contemporary international system poses a complex
array of political, economic, ecological and strategic problems and puzzles.
One way to approach these complex issues, and the questions "What
can be done?" or "What must be done?" is to deal with the
future through such endeavors as forecasting, projections, and futurology.
We also must recognize that the present world system is only one outcome
in a vast variety of possible world systems, and that we must begin to
consider a broad range of alternatives. To study about world order is to
study about (alternative) international futures. But, as Barry Hughes points
out, to study the future is to be concerned with choices, choices
which must be made under conditions of uncertainty: "We cannot know
the future, but it is important to act in the face of that uncertainty"
(International Futures, p.2). Hughes presents us with three questions
to help deal with that uncertainty: "where do current changes appear
to be taking us? ...what kind of future would we prefer? ...how much leverage
do we have to bring about the future we prefer?" (p.2). These questions
will help to anchor the course and the simulation which is at its core.
This course is organized to introduce students to a range
of ways by which analysts have tried to think about and study the future.
We will deal with general overviews, categorizations, and critiques of
futurology. In addition to Hughes' International Futures two other
texts will be used in this part of the course: Barry Hughes, World Futures:
A Critical Analysis of Alternatives (1985), and Allan Goodman, A
Brief History of the Future (1993). We will then move on to the set
of contemporary problems (the "problematique") and future alternatives,
applying futures concepts and approaches to contemporary issue areas: economics;
population/food; environment/technology; and nuclear/strategic issues.
These problem areas thus reflect the politics of exchange and distribution
in energy and raw materials, food, and technology, the politics affecting
labor (population) and capital (investment, aid, debt), and the politics
of global security, armaments and war.
We will explore the interdependencies and trade-offs among
these issues through the use of computer simulation. The central text around
which the course will be structured is Barry Hughes, International Futures
(1996). In Hughes' words (p.xiii): "This book will immerse you in
thinking about global futures. It is not a book for passive readers...
it asks you to participate in the development of your own understanding
and vision. The book involves you in investigating the future in two ways.
The first is via traditional text...through the extrapolation of trends
and through causal understanding of the world... The second method, which
will involve you even more actively in exploration of the future, is a
computer simulation model called International Futures (IFs). IFs is a
global model that simulates population, food, energy, environmental, economic,
and political developments from a base year of 1992, allowing forecasts
extending as far into the future as the year 2050." The central activity
of the course will be the analysis of current trends and future scenarios
through IFs.
STUDENT REQUIREMENTS
Participation
There are two keys to the nature of this course. First,
this course is listed as a proseminar. As such, your participation
in class discussions, class presentations, and class activities related
to mastery of the simulation, is vital. You must be present to participate.
You must do the reading in order to participate. All reading assignments
are to be considered an essential part of the course requirements. There
is a relatively light reading load for an upper level seminar. Students
will be expected to have completed the relevant reading assignment before
coming to class. Students will also be expected to discuss that reading
with some degree of thought and coherency. Class Participation (the quantity
and quality of participation in class discussion which includes mastery
of reading assignments; the completion and quality of class presentations)
will comprise 35% of the course grade. Each student must see the instructor
during the week preceding Fall Break (October 6-10) for an interim evaluation
of class participation.
Written Assignments
The second key is the IFs simulation. It is the basis
(or objective) for all of the course papers-- exercises and final projects--
and course presentations.
-- Basic IFs Exercises; Parameter and Variable Reports; Scenario Designs (25% of grade)
-- International Futures Scenario Final Project (40% of
grade)
Course Reading
Books required for purchase (all paperback):
Allan Goodman, A Brief History of the Future (Boulder: Westview, 1993)
Barry Hughes, World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1985)
Barry Hughes, International Futures, 2nd edition
(Boulder: Westview, 1996)
Additional readings will be distributed in class or placed
on reserve at Thomas Cooper Library.
All of the reading listed on the syllabus is required
reading (see above). Students wishing to pursue any topic in more detail
should speak to the instructor.
COURSE OUTLINE AND READING ASSIGNMENTS
Course Introduction/Organization (Aug.22))
PART I THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE
1. The Future (Aug.25, 27)
Required Reading
Max Singer, "What is Happening in History," P.S., March 1997 [on Reserve]
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.1
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.1
Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, chs.1, 2
Suggested
Edward Cornish, THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE, chs.4-7 [on Reserve]
[Note: August 29: Session in Liberal Arts Computing
Lab]
2. Overview of Futures Studies (Sept.3, 5)
Required Reading
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, chs.2, 3, 10, 11
Sam Cole, "The Global Futures Debate, 1965-1976,"
in Richrd Falk, Samuel Kim, and Saul Mendlovitz, eds., TOWARD A JUST WORLD
ORDER [on reserve]
Suggested
Cornish, THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE, chs.9, 10 [on Reserve]
PART II SIMULATING THE FUTURE
1. The Basics of IFs (Sept.8, 10, 12)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, chs.2, 3, 8
2. Variables, Parameters, and Basic IFs Exercises (Sept.15, 17, 19)
Required Reading
IFs "Variables" and "Parameter Listings" from both the 1st and 2nd editions; 2nd edition handout, 1st edition on Reserve. See also IFs Simulation HELP Menu.
"Exercises From Other Courses" Folder [on Reserve]
Note: You should start reading Goodman,
A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE
PART III THE GLOBAL PROBLEMATIQUE: ISSUES, FACTORS,
RELATIONSHIPS
1. Overview (Sept.22, 24, 26)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.4 (review ch.2)
IFs HELP Menu, "Model Detail"
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.8
Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, chs.4, 7
2. Population (Sept.29, Oct.1, 3)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.5 (population-related sections)
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.4
3. Food and Agriculture (Oct.6, 8, 10)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.5 (food-related sections)
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.7
4. Energy and the Environment (Oct.15, 17, 20)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.5 (energy and environment-related sections)
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, chs.6, 9
5. Economics (Oct.22, 24, 27, 29, 31)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.6
Hughes, WORLD FUTURES, ch.5
Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, ch.5
6. Security and Peace (Nov.3, 5, 7)
Required Reading
Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES, ch.7
Goodman, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE, chs.3, 6, 8
PART IV SCENARIOS OF CHANGE
1. Theory, Models and Hypotheses: Creating Scenarios (Nov.10, 12, 14, 17, 19, 21)
-- student reports; discussions and critiques of Scenario
Designs
2. Changing the Future: Scenarios Choices and Outcomes (Dec.1, 3, 5)
-- student reports; discussions and critiques of International Futures Scenario Final Project papers
PAPER DESCRIPTIONS
Basic IFs Exercises
The first topic in Part II of the course (September 8-12)
introduces students to the basic components and capabilities of the IFs
simulation. A set of exercises indicating that students have achieved some
familiarity with the basic components and procedures involved in the simulation
will be submitted when the class begins the second section of Part II (September
15-19). The exercises will be graded simply pass/fail, and will be due
in class on September 15. Exercises A, B, and C
are from courses developed by other faculty who have used IFs.
-- Do the exercises presented in the assignment labeled A.
-- In addition, select any single country/region. For that selection choose up to three different variables. For each variable produce a table, line graph, and bar chart. What do these materials tell us about the country/region from 1992 to 2050? Select two of the variables and look at them together (you can now use pie charts as well). How do they relate to each other across the 1992-2050 period?
-- Select three different countries/regions and compare them on two different variables (now adding the use of scatter plots).
-- Do the exercises presented in the assignment labeled B.
-- Do the exercises presented in the assignment labeled
C.
Parameter and Variable Reports
As noted in the Variables and Parameter Listing
handout (generated from the IFs HELP Menu), there are 68 parameters
used in the simulation. During the week of September 15 we will discuss
the nature and role of these parameters. Earlier in the semester we will
divide the parameters equally among class members. For each parameter you
will produce a paragraph or two that goes beyond the brief description
provided in the handout, explaining what the parameter is, which
variables it is most closely related to, and how it might be important
to the simulation. Students will be responsible for presenting their material
on the parameters in class during that week. Two copies of the written
Parameter and Variable Reports will be due in class on September 22.
The instructor will place one copy of each report on Reserve.
Scenario Designs
These papers (six double spaced pages maximum length)
will be due class on November 10. They are described below in the
discussion of the International Futures Scenario Final Project.
NOTE: These three activities will combine to account for 25% of the course grade.
PAPER DESCRIPTION
International Futures Scenario Final Project
(40% of grade)
The central activity of the course is the preparation
(and presentation) of the International Futures Scenario Final Project.
This project requires you to find some aspect of the global system that
is of interest to you, and to explore (in any of a number of ways) what
the future might look like given the continuation and change in
parameters, behavior, and policy choices. Recall Hughes' questions (INTERNATIONAL
FUTURES, p.74): "How do we want the future to look? What leverage
do we have?" You will be investigating the consequences-- both intended
and unintended-- of the scenario you have selected, along with the changes
in parameters and variables.
The basic components of the Final Project include the
following (with thanks to Brian Pollins of Ohio State University from whose
assignment I have borrowed, but substantially modified):
1) Choose one area of particular interest to you.
Each student will select one of the major issues of the
problematique that were covered in the course: population; food and agriculture;
energy; environment; economic development; security and peace. While we
will not finish class discussion of these areas until November 7, an early
reading of Hughes, INTERNATIONAL FUTURES chapters 2 and 4, our coverage
of parameters (during the week of September 15), as well as interests that
you have developed in other courses, should have led you to an area of
interest by the week of October 6. When you see the instructor that week
to discuss class participation, you and the instructor will also agree
on an area of interest for your Final Project.
2) Propose a change that you think might improve the situation which the world faces.
In selecting an area of interest, you will have identified
current or potential problems or dilemmas. You may investigate your area
of interest in different ways: looking at a single country/region (e.g.
China or the USA or Africa or Rest of the Developed countries); looking
at one or more countries/regions (e.g. the USA, EU and Japan; or China
and India and Other Asia); looking at the world system as a whole. You
may also use any combination of these (e.g. the World plus the US plus
China; or the World plus EU plus Rest of the Developed). Whichever alternative
you select, you must explain/justify why you have taken this
country/region focus given the area of interest of your scenario.
In suggesting "changes," you are, in effect,
creating a new "scenario" of how you think the world would look
given different or altered conditions. The "change" that you
suggest must be based within some theoretical context. That is,
in your assigned reading there are many arguments as to global interdependencies,
and hypotheses about what is related to what, and what things should lead
to what changes. These are perhaps most clearly presented in INTERNATIONAL
FUTURES chapters 2 and 4. Chapter 4 (and Model Detail in the IFs
HELP Menu) is particularly useful in providing "models" of relationships--
how variables, parameters and factors might interact. In chapter 3, Hughes
provides a number of "Research Questions" that might also form
the theoretical basis for your scenarios. Each of chapters 3-9 in WORLD
FUTURES includes a section called "Forecasting: Theories and Models,"
which might also help you in coming up with a scenario and providing its
theoretical justififcation. Goodman's book might be used in a similar manner.
Students should feel free to discuss their area of interest with the instructor
for additional sources of theoretical material; (but be sure to note that
you do not have to go beyond the course readings). The scenario
should also reflect your understanding of the study of the future--
including the different types of change, issues of the utility and problems
of extrapolation, projection, etc.
3) Create a model that reflects your scenario (selecting parameters/table functions/variables).
In creating your scenario you will have selected some
factor/set of factors-- explaining which ones have been selected and why,
and what the hypothesized direction and magnitude of impact might be. Now
you must set out which parameters/table functions/variables are to be involved,
what your independent and dependent variables are. Set out the hypothesized
consequences; (later, when running your scenario you can match the actual
consequences, which are both intended and unintended, against the hypotheses).
You should make clear whether or not your purpose is to maximize some condition,
minimize some condition, simply to see what happens when some changes are
made, and/or to see if hypothesized expectations are met.
NOTE: The results of the activities involved in
components #2 and #3 will be condensed into the Scenario Design paper (6
double-spaced pages maximum). Scenario Design papers are due on November
10. Students will present their Scenario Designs as the basis for class
discussion during the November 10-21 period.
4) Set up the model run of your scenario, run it, compare the results of your scenario to results from the Base Run.
You need to see how your scenario for a particular country/region
(or combination thereof) affects that same country/region, other
countries/regions, and the world. If your scenario starts out with
a focus on the world, then you need to see how your scenario affects various
countries/regions as well as the world. You also need to see how the changes
in your scenario affect not only your specific area of interest (e.g. energy)
but at least one other area (e.g. economic development or population).
The central question is did your proposed change make a difference? Did
you obtain the desired outcome? What about higher-order or interdependence
effects? (how did your changes affect other countries/regions and/or other
areas of interest?).
5) Write up a report describing the various components and steps involved in the Final Project.
Carefully construct a Final Report which reflects the
thinking that went into the development of your scenario, the country/region
focus, the area of interest selected, the steps you followed in looking
at your scenario (which could be set for an end point of 2050 or multiple
time periods-- e.g. 2007, 2030, 2050). Summarize the results in terms of
the theory behind your scenario, and in comparison to the Base Run. You
must include relevant tables, charts, graphs, scatterplots, etc. (e.g.
including the data for all relevant aspects of the scenario, both before
and after changes in the parameters and independent variables). [NOTE:
While IFs is not set up with its own statistical package, you should
feel free to export results to any statistical package with which you are
familiar for additional analyses. Such analyses are not required.]
Provide conclusions-- what does this all mean?
What does it mean for policy? for current trends? for the interdependence
among issue areas? How did this project affect your own thinking about
global problems and potential solutions? What was missing-- from your own
scenario? from IFs in general?
NOTE: The results of the analyses in your International
Futures Scenario Final Projects will provide the basis for student reports
and discussions during the week of December 1. The Final Projects are
due to the instructor by 4:00 pm, Monday, December 8. Papers should
be double-spaced (normal margins normal fonts), and be between 15-25 pages
in length (not counting tables, charts, graphs, etc.).
HINTS:
¨ Spend time playing
with IFs in general, and your model in particular. Just like any
"game" software you may have used, there is no substitute for
experience. The more time you spend simply playing with IFs and
the model, the easier the assignment will become (and the more complex
and more interesting and more fascinating the exercise will be for you).
You might want to review some of the exercises described in the "Exercise
From Other Courses" Folder on Reserve.
¨ Try one change at a time,
that is, do not make multiple changes on your model all at once because
that will make it more difficult to trace the effects of any single change
as its effects work their way through the system. Remember, simulation
is one way in which we can "experiment," by being able to control
cause and effect. Develop and run your model in such ways as to maximize
the control in your experiment.
¨ Create a master table
of some kind which keeps track of: initial values of parameters and variables;
changes made to these parameters or variables (alone or in combination);
and consequences for interpolated or final values (for 2050 or any year
between 1992 and 2050). Be sure to note which country/region/[world] (or
combination) is being analyzed, and for which country/region/[world] (or
combination) you are presenting results.
*******
SCCC 3340 IMPORTANT DATES:
September 15 Basic IFs Exercises due
September 15-19 Verbal Parameter and Variable Reports in class
September 22 Parameter and Variable Reports due
October 6-10 Meetings with instructor on class participation; Futures Scenario area of interest consultation
November 10 Scenario Designs due
November 10-21 Verbal Scenario Design reports in class
December 1-5 Verbal Final Projects reports in class
December 8 Final Projects due