Hanson

International Futures: Example Syllabus

Political Science 211

Contemporary International Politics

Elizabeth C. Hanson

This is an advanced course in international relations which examines alternative perspectives on the emerging world order/disorder. The course is structured around the three questions which are the focus of the Hughes text which we are using: 1) Where do current changes in the international system appear to be taking us? 2) What kind of future would we prefer? 3)How much leverage do we have in bringing about the future we prefer? We will, through our readings and discussions, identify alternative scenarios for the future of the international system. We will discover how different assumptions, values, and worldviews provide different interpretations of both the changes that are occuring and the direction they are taking us. Most important, we will gain some understanding of the relationship between the choices we make today and the world of tomorrow. To accomplish these objectives we shall use a computer forecasting simulation. This will involve you in series of exercises and a group project. Don’t panic, this part of the course will be fun; and it definitely does not require you to be a computer nerd.

After a free-ranging discussion in the first two sessions about alternative scenarios of the future, we look briefly at the past for insight into the future. We look first at historical examples of different types of international systems before the modern state system emerged. Then we look at the modern state system and the changes which it has undergone. The remainder of the course, most of it, deals with different types of change and how we can analyze them. A series of exercises and projects based on the computer simulation are designed to involve you and to help you to think about changes, choices, and the future of the international system.

Texts:

Brown, Seyom. 1995. New Forces, Old Forces, and the Future of World Politics, Post-Cold War edition. Boulder, CO.: Westview Press.

Hughes, Barry B. 1996. International Futures: Choices in the Creation of a New World Order. Boulder, CO.: Westview Press.

These are the two basic texts which structure the course

Annual Editions. 1996. Global Issues, 96/97. Guilford, CT.: Dushkin.

Packet of 10 xeroxed articles available at the co-op with the above books

These collections combine articles from the popular press with scholarly works. They have been selected to provide a more concrete picture of the contemporary international system and to illustrate how change is being interpreted by a variety of sources

GRADING SYSTEM & MY EXPECTATIONS

There will be one midterm exam, which will count 25 % of your grade and a final exam, which will count for 30%. The various exercises and special assignments will go into your "portfolio," which will be submitted the last day of class. An overall grade will be given to this portfolio, which will count 25% of your grade. Finally, you will be responsible for a special project, selecting an area of contemporary international politics in which you have particular interest. Details about the project are attached below. The project will count for 20 % of your grade.

I expect you to miss class only in dire emergency and to read all of the material assigned before the relevant class discussion. Your attendance in class and your quality, informed contributions to class discussion (based on readings) will help to make this a thought-provoking, illuminating, and fun course for you.

COURSE OUTLINE

August 29, Sept. 3

World Politics on the Eve of the 21st Century: A Sample of Views

Note: I will be attending the American Political Science meetings. The syllabus and two articles will be handed out. Please read for class discussion on Sept. 3 the two articles from the popular press, Robert D. Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy;" Benjamin Barber; "Jihad vs. McWorld." Use these articles to stimulate your thinking about where changes in the international system may be taking us.

Special fun assignment: Conduct a quick informal survey on views about the future. As 10 people what they think the world will look like in the year 2020 and be prepared to report in class on Sept. 3.

Sept. 5

More Views of the Future

Readings: Sorensen, "Four Futures" and Lopez, Smith and Pagnucco, "The Global Tide" in the packet and Paul Kennedy, "Preparing for the 21st Century" in Global Issues (#1)

Sept. 10, 12

The Historical Context: Thinking about the Future by Looking at the Past

Historic International Systems

The Modern State System

Cold War Bipolarity

Readings: Brown, ch. 1-3

Sept. 17, 19

The End of the Cold War and Systemic Change

Readings: Brown pp. ch. 4,5,6, 8

Sept. 24

"End of sovereignty"? "Crisis of the Nation State"?

Readings: Brown, introduction; ch. 13; Parizeau, "The Case for Sovereign Quebec, packet

Sept. 26, Oct. 1

Analyzing Change

Readings: Hughes ch. 1,2, 3

Oct. 3

Understanding Change: Values and World Views

Readings: Hughes ch. 4

Oct. 8

Technological Change

Impact of new information and communications technologies on relations between states and societies

Readings: Brown, ch. 9; Mowlana, "The Communication Paradox" (packet)

Hughes, pp. 29-34; Global Issues # 48

Oct. 10,15,17

Economic Change

Readings: Brown ch. 11; Hughes ch. 6 (& review pp. 34-38); Global Issues # 23, 24, 27, 29, 30, & 41

Oct. 22 Midterm Exam!!

Oct. 24, 29, 31

Environmental Change: the Ecological Challenge

Readings Hughes ch. 5 (and review pp. 24-29); Global Issues #4,5,6,11,14,15,19,21

Brown ch. 10

Nov. 7, 12, 14

Security in a Changing World

Readings Hughes ch. 7; Global Issues #2, 34, 36, Huntington, "The Clash ofCivilizations" and Esposito, Beyond the Green Menace" in packet; Chopra, "Back to the Drawing Board (packet)

Nov. 19, 21, 26

Sociopolitical Change: Individuals, Groups, States and Values

Readings:: Brown ch. 12; Gurr , "Communal Conflicts and Global Security (packet);

Global Issues # 35,43; Hughes, pp. 38-43; Reid, ConfuciusSays.." in packet

Dec. 3,4,10

Summing Up and Looking Ahead: Alternative Models of the Future

Readings: Brown Conclusion; Hughes ch. 8; Global Issues # 46 Odom, "How to Create a True World Order (packet)

IFS PROJECT & PORTFOLIO

Political Science 211

Each student in the class has been assigned to one of the nine regions of the world as defined by the IFS model. Your basic assignment is to become experts in that region by virtue of your exploration of the IFS model. You may find it helpful at times to explore IFS as it pertains to other regions of the world beyond your assigned region, but these should be used for comparative purposes and do not require the same in-depth analysis of the material and scenarios for your region. The purpose of the assignment is to provide you with some understanding of the changes which are shaping the future of your region and the kinds of policy choices which can affect that future positively or negatively. Your portfolio should be turned in by the last day of class and should consist of five parts.

One part is your file of clippings, articles etc. which you will accumulate over the rest of the semester to provide you with a general knowledge base of your region. (See separate sheet describing assignment #1). Particularly relevant articles are those which look specifically at current trends, especially those which are represented as variables in IFS.

The second part consists of all other special assignments or exercises which I hand out in numbered order. Please put the number at the top of the assignment.

The third part is your forecasting project described below. I would like for this part to be conducted as a group project. The week of November 12 will focus exclusively on this group activity during class time; but you should be trying to do some preliminary explorations as a group before that time, especially for assignment #2. Although I would like as much intra-group discussion and collaboration as possible, I want separate output from each student as part of her/his portfolio.

The fourth part of the project is a paper which puts the first two together into an informative and meaningful analysis. The paper should identify current trends for your region and the most important problems facing it; summarize what you have found in your scenarios; and draw conclusions. You may use your output as an appendix (with appropriate page numbers) and refer to it in your narrative. The analysis should be 5-8 pages.

The fifth part of the project will be a group presentation during the last week of class. This should be coordinated and organized in a way that is meaningful and interesting for the class as a whole. An outline of the group’s presentation and summary of your remarks should go into your portfolio.

FORECASTING PROJECT

Each individual must produce three scenario runs for all the output: the base case (already contained in IFS), an optimistic scenario for your region and a pessimistic scenario. The pieces of the output for each scenario should be identical with explanations of what parameters were changed to create each scenario. Be specific so that if I want to replicate your results, I will be able to do so. My replication of your results may be necessary, so that I can understand the logic of what you have tried to accomplish. The more you explain your results to me, the easier it will be for me to understand why you obtained certain results and why you made certain decisions regarding parameter changes.

EXAMPLE: Let’s say that you are interested in exploring agricultrual variables for Japan. You might choose the variable AGM (agricultural imports) for crops and meat. You could run the base case for 15 years and then print up those two variable runs. This would show you (if you compared the results with some other regions), that Japan is relatively dependent on agricultural imports. To create a pessimistic case for Japan, you might then change the parameter CLNF (calorie need factor) for its initial value of 1 to 2. This increases the number of calories needed for Japn and thus should cause AGM to increase. Now that process is rather straightforward and logical, but I also want you to make a case for why CLNF might increase as you have indicated. What might change in Japan that would cause that CLNF to increase? You should be able to support the parameter changes you make with arguments for why such a things might actually occur. Obviously, the text of the Hughes book and its appendices, in addition to discussions with myself and Neil Coates* (who will be helping as a TA for this purpose) will be helpful in developing the rationales for parameter changes.

Choose three "central" variables for each of the six main sets of variables: population, agriculture/food, energy, economic, political, social

EXAMPLE: for your government variable, you might choose to examine the literacy rate (LIT) in Africa. Literacy rate would be your central variable. Now on face value this does not seem to be a "government" variable, but it becomes one for the purposes of this assignment, if you try to influence it by increasing or decreasing the values of the education spending parameter (GK/Education) for Africa.

You must produce a base case, a pessimistic, and an optimistic scenario and the necessary explanations for each. Show all your work and exactly how you changed what parameters.

REMINDER: Please make sure that you rerun the model each time you change a parameter. Save your changes on disk so that you do not have to start from scratch each time you work on IFS. Although you will want to do some experimenting with different time horizons when you are making the final runs for your project, I would suggest that you use a 19 or 30 year time horizon stick to your choice throughout the project rather than choosing different horizons for different variables. Remember that you may need to reset the counter to 1992 when running the model.

*Neil Coates Office weekly office hours are:

Monday 1-4 and Tuesday 10-11

On Tuesday, October 8 he will be in his office or computer lab 3:30-5 to help get you started