Political Science 497A
Exploring the Global Future
Spring, 1999
Professor Stuart A. Bremer
163N Burrowes Building Office hours: Monday, Wednesday, Friday 2:30-3:30,
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Office: 865-1890 Home: 466-4847 Email: sbremer@psu.edu |
The aim of this course is to look into the future and consider some problems that the globe is likely to confront. It has a somewhat unconventional structure since about half of our class time will be spent in the computer lab using a computer model called International Futures (IFs), while the other half of our class time will have the more common lecture-discussion format. The readings, lectures, discussions, and lab sessions are intended to give you a deeper understanding of such problems as overpopulation, global poverty, food shortages, energy bottlenecks, etc. and sharpen your analytical capabilities regarding potential solutions to these problems.
The readings for the course are drawn from the texts listed below. Please note that the Hughes text (which is a prepublication copy of his third edition) is only available at the Student Book Store (330 E. College Ave.) as a course packet.
Micheal T. Snarr & D. Neil Snarr, eds., Introducing Global Issues. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998.
Robert M. Jackson, ed., Global Issues 98/99. Dushkin/McGraw-Hill, 1998.
Barry B. Hughes, International Futures. Prepublication copy, 1998.
The lab sessions will be held in the Political Science Computer Lab in the Burrowes building. For the first several weeks of the semester you will work in teams of two to familiarize yourself with the IFs model. After that point you will work individually. Each student will be assigned a computer account and 20 MB of disk space to store simulation results. Do not save any files that you wish to keep on disk C because they are likely to disappear during the time between sessions. As you work your way through the IFs model it is highly recommended that you keep a lab notebook containing model commands, important variable names and definitions, useful parameter names and definitions, comments about scenarios you create, problems you encounter with the model, etc. This notebook will save you much time in the end since you will not have to rely on the manual so much. If necessary, extra time in the computer lab will be arranged.
Your course grade will be based on the following elements.
Mid term examination |
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Lab exercises |
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Discussion & Presentation |
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Final paper |
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Please note that the mid term exam will be on March 2nd and the final paper is due April 29th (a penalty will be assessed for a late paper). Details about the final paper will be provided later. In the last week of class each student is expected to present a brief (5-7 minutes) presentation on the subject of his or her final paper.
The World Wide Web is a valuable resource on global problems. One web site that you should check out soon is maintained by Barry Hughes, the developer of the IFs simulation. His web site is
http://www.ifs.du.edu/IF_Links.html
Other relevant web sites are listed on pages 6-7 of Global Issues.
Since this is the first time this course has been offered,
unforeseen problems are likely to arise. Please be patient and bear in
mind that the life of a pioneer is often hard.
Class Schedule
January 12 & 14 - Thinking About the Future | |
Hughes, chapter 1; Hammond, chapter 1; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 1 |
January 19 & 21 - Global Trends | |
Hughes, chapter 2; Hammond, chapters 6-9; Jackson, article 1 |
January 26 - Future Scenarios | |
Hughes, chapters 3-4; Hammond, chapters 3-5; Jackson, articles 2-3. |
January 28 - Lab Session 1
Hughes, chapter 5; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 9; Jackson, articles 4-8. |
February 4 - Lab Session 2
1) A line graph showing contraception use in the two runs for India.
2) A table showing total population in the two runs for India.
3) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the GDP per
capita in dollars in the two runs for India.
Sign your names on the back of each table or graph and
write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you
made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the
table and graphs you create.
February 9 - Economic Problems | |
Hughes, chapter 6; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 6-8; Jackson, articles 22-25. |
February 11 - Lab Session 3
1) A line graph showing GDP in the two runs for the United States.
2) A table showing world GDP in the two runs.
3) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the absolute North-South gap in the two runs.
4) A line graph showing the physical quality of life for
Africa in the two runs.
Sign your names on the back of each table or graph and
write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you
made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the
table and graphs you create.
February 16 - Food Problems | |
Hughes, chapter 7; Jackson, articles 15-18. |
February 18 - Lab Session 4
1) A line graph comparing agricultural production in Africa in the base run, your best agricultural investment scenario, and your best agricultural yield scenario.
2) A line graph comparing the number of malnourished children in Africa in the three runs.
3) A table showing calories per capita (at 10-year intervals) in the three runs.
4) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) African GDP
per capita in the three runs.
Again, sign your names on the back of each table or graph
and write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change
you made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to
the table and graphs you create.
February 23 - Energy Problems | |
Hughes, chapter 8; Jackson, articles 19-21. |
February 25 - Lab Session 5
1) A table showing the energy export limit for OPEC in the two runs.
2) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the energy exports of OPEC in the two runs.
3) Some line graphs showing the impact of this event on the standard of living in the United States, Japan, Europe, China, Russia, and Africa.
As before, sign your names on the back of each table or
graph and write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter
change you made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles
to the table and graphs you create.
March 4 - Lab Session 6
March 16- Environmental Problems | |
Hughes, chapter 9; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 13-15; Jackson, articles 9-14. |
March 18 - Lab Session 7
1) A table showing the carbon tax for the United States in the two runs.
2) A line graph showing energy demand for oil in the United States in the two runs.
3) A line graph showing the standard of living in the United States in the two runs.
4) Bar graphs showing (at 10-year intervals) the (a) world
temperature, (b) carbon dioxide levels, and (c) annual carbon emissions
in the two runs.
As usual, sign your names on the back of each table or
graph and write a short paragraph describing the effect of the parameter
change you made on the relevant variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles
to the table and graphs you create.
March 23 - Quality of Life Problems | |
Hughes, chapter 10; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 4, 10-12; Jackson, articles 33-34. |
March 25 - Lab Session 8
For each scenario
1) A table showing the values of the parameter you varied. On the back of this table give a brief explanation of why you expected this factor to have a positive impact on GEM.
2) A line graph comparing GEM for Africa in the base and
scenario run. On the back of this graph write a short paragraph describing
the effect made by the parameter change you introduced.
Be sure to sign your names to the back of each table and
graph.
March 30 - Security Problems | |
Hughes, chapter 11; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 2-3, 5; Jackson, articles 35-41. |
April 1 - Lab Session 9
April 6 - Regional Problems I | |
Hammond, chapters 11-14; Jackson, articles 28-31 |
April 8 - Lab Session 10
April 13 - Regional Problems II | |
Hammond, chapter 10, 15-16; Jackson, articles 26-27, 32. |
April 15 - Lab Session 11
April 20 - Global Futures | |
Hughes, chapter 12; Hammond, chapter 17; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 16; Jackson, articles 47-50. |
April 22 - Lab Session 12