International Futures:  Example Syllabus
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PS 340 Models and Policy Analysis

Course Syllabus

Fall 1999
MW 2:10-3:25 PM
Mr. Borock

Course Description and Goals

Using computerized techniques of analysis, you will examine a variety of policy questions covering a broad spectrum of political issues. Policy questions may focus on such topics as: how to contend with global warming, the impacts of environmental policy; industrial nations' trade policy options, third world policies for the redistribution of wealth; policy options for the national budget and the defense budget; the effectiveness of foreign aid; the effects of modernization strategies. In addition to these policy issues, students will also have the opportunity to assess the validity or reliability of published scholarship, the results of which are based upon models similar to those used in the course. Some examples of past scenario projects are: Japan - China arms racing, the likelihood of another OPEC embargo, a critique of the McNamara - World Bank development strategies for Africa, Chinese trade development, new strategies for economic development in Africa, an examination of alternative energy strategies, and evaluation of various Nuclear Winter scenarios. Other possibilities include unilateral disarmament scenarios, technology and foreign aid transfers, war proneness, resource use, distribution and availability, forecasts on food availability and population growth, and climate anomaly and change impact policy.

You will assess existing policies or policy options and formulate your own policies with the assistance of the International Futures Simulation computer model. You will also learn about research design as you develop, interpret, apply and describe your own data.

Computer Models and Applications

International Futures Simulation v.3.17 Created by Barry Hughes, University of Denver. A global, sectoral model. Windows version installed on the network. Personal Windows version available with the text.

Microsoft Excel v.97. A very graphics oriented spreadsheet. Installed on the network.

Corel's WordPerfect for Windows v. 7. A graphics oriented word processor. Installed on the network.

Microsoft Word for Windows v. 97. A very graphics oriented word processor. Installed on the network.

Microsoft PowerPoint for Windows v. 97. Presentation software.

Texts:

Frank Fischer(1995) Evaluating Public Policy, Nelson-Hall Publishers

Joan E. Spero and Jeffrey A. Hart (1997) The Politics of International Economics, 5th edition, St. Martin's Press.

Barry Hughes (1999) International Futures: Choices in the Creation of a New World Order, 3rd edition, Westview Press-Harper Collins.

The texts by Fischer and Hughes will be used to develop an analytic framework for your policy analyses. The text by Spero and Hart will provide political economy information and some possible case studies for the course.

Schedule and Assignments

The course will start off with some preliminary scenarios provided in Hughes' text. These will be used to acquaint you with the IFs model. While you're learning about the model you should also be thinking about a scenario you would like to develop. Most of the course will be devoted to the development of the scenario.

The unstructured nature of the course plus the operational unpredictability of hardware and software makes it impossible to set specific target dates. The first couple of weeks will be devoted to learning how to use IFs, Excel, the word processors and PowerPoint, how to develop a policy analysis, and the choice of the first project. Target dates for the conclusion of each project will be determined as we proceed through the course. With regard to the scenario, you will build one upon the other, moving toward greater complexity and sophistication as you go.

Class meetings will be held twice a week. Initially the meetings will focus on policy analysis in general, the methodology for policy analysis, and the conceptualization of the projects. We will also discuss any hardware or software issues. Later on, the meetings will be used for discussion of the progress and results of the scenarios.

Additional Assistance

See me about problems with hardware or software or contact Information Resources' response team for network or hardware problems.

Flex-Schedule

Aug. 30 Introduction to the course
Sept. 1 Introduction to IFs and Some Simple Concepts About Policy Making and Policy Evaluation. Overview of the IFs model: sectors, parameters, variables, time lines, subgroups, change, output/results, and interpretation.
Sept. 6-8 Introduction to Excel, word processing, and PowerPoint.
Sept. 13-15 Hughes: Chapters 1 - 3. Review the variables and parameters in the handout and Help file. Examine the model by exploring at least two of the research questions for the model's sectors in Chapter 3.
Sept. 20-22  Fischer: Chapters 1-3. Introduction to public policy and policy evaluation. Spero and Hart: Chapters 1-2. Overview of the global economy.
Sept. 27-29  Run two of the seven Research Question scenarios in Chapter 3. IFs Model: Using the two research questions you examined, provide a basic analysis of the results and bring your output to class. We will review each of the questions and the results.  Overview of Independent and Dependent variables and they are used in the analysis of trends.
Oct. 4 Introduction to aggregate data: Using aggregate data from files created with IFs and developing some graphs that provide a schematic of the data by displaying trends over time.
Oct 11 Reading Day - No Class
Oct. 6 & 13 Hughes: Chapters 4-5. Fischer: Chapters 4, 6-7. Spero and Hart: Chapters 5-7.

Developing A Scenario: Choose a policy issue and begin to prepare a simple scenario with just a few independent and dependent variables. Identify the policy or policies you are going to use to test the relationship. Establish the premises for choosing the variables in terms of the relationship you want to explore. Identify the variables. Indicate the changes you're going to make to the independent variables and link these to the policies. Provide an analysis of the policy, the trends, and the relationships. Indicate whether or not the policy was a success and, insofar as you're able to, why. Include the data, before and after changes to the independent variables, for both sets of variables. Provide a graph or two to illustrate the trends.  We will review each of the analyses in class.
Oct. 18-20 Hughes: Chapters 6-7. Fischer: Chapters 8-10. Spero and Hart: Chapters 9-10.

Scenario Choice: Choose a subject that you want to pursue for the rest of the term. It may be a replication of a previous study; a replication of an event that was caused by certain types of decisions or policies, or resulted in the formulation and implementation of policies; or the testing of a range of policy assumptions (forecasting) regarding a specific issue.

Research the subject thoroughly. Make sure you choose enough dependent and independent variables. Provide an outline for the analysis that clearly identifies your research objectives and how you intend to achieve them. Develop your analysis using data and schematics.
Oct. 25 Discussion of the Scenario Choices
Oct. 27 & Nov. 1 Preliminary runs and discussion of issues within the scenario.
Nov. 3-8 Report: Submit a written preliminary report of your project and present an oral report (PowerPoint) in class. We will critique your research, including all premises, choices of variables and parameters, changes and time lines, at this time. The next stage of your analysis will include the suggestions made and accepted during this review.
Nov. 10-15 Second Preliminary Report: Submit the revised analysis in writing and present an oral report (PowerPoint) in class.
Nov. 17-22 Final discussion of preliminary results. 
Nov. 24-28 Thanksgiving Recess
Nov. 29, Dec. 1,6,8 Reports of findings . You will present a PowerPoint report of your findings to the rest of the class. Class discussion will focus on the results of each of the projects.
Dec. 14 Last day to hand in completed project.